Jim Marusak Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Model report cards so everyone can see whats happening here... GFS is ranked fifth behind the CMC and JMA in the tropics, ECM and UKMET dominating at three days out. Its ranked fourth at day 5. if those numbers are to believed, with the JMA being in a close 2nd place so far this season, I just took a look at the latest 12z run, at least what has come in so far via tropical tidbits. And it supports the GFS weak system scenario. As for the canadian global from the same site, it has the system fairly weak (1008 or so) as it goes near MIA, then when it gets to the GOM it eventually heads to Mobile Bay as a strong TS or so. but those are just the model scenarios, nowhere near reality as of this moment. something to think about for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I think we may have a bingo. KJUA radar picking up on what appears to be a closed circulation just North of St Croix. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Ukie has a 1007 low riding the western side of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think we may have a bingo. KJUA radar picking up on what appears to be a closed circulation just North of St Croix. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes With the MCV to the south dying off, and convection lacking anywhere near the LLC, I highly doubt this gets a name @ 5pm. Again, the 12z HWRF keeps this naked and has it interacting with Hispaniola. EDIT: Dies over Hispaniola shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: With the MCV to the south dying off, and convection lacking anywhere near the LLC, I highly doubt this gets a name @ 5pm. Again, the 12z HWRF keeps this naked and has it interacting with Hispaniola. Agreed, but you can clearly see the southerly flow to the NE of St Croix along with what appears to be the beginnings of a ring of convection around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Agreed, but you can clearly see the southerly flow to the NE of St Croix along with what appears to be the beginnings of a ring of convection around the center. Oh I agree with you on that, but the NHC will want convective organization before classifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 There is also some west wind with this system as evidenced by the metar from Christiansted, US VI. http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/index?submit=1&station_ids=TISX&chk_metars=on&chk_tafs=on&hoursStr=1&std_trans=translated TISX 241700Z 27007KT 10SM -RA SCT035 SCT075 BKN095 27/26 A2988 RMK AO2 P0000 T02670256 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just now, Superstorm93 said: Oh I agree with you on that, but the NHC will want convective organization before classifying. I agree, but I like the improvements over the last few hours, and hopefully things will continue to improve approaching the diurnal max tonight. If you look closely at the 12z HWRF, it actually takes the convection currently near St Croix several hundred miles North of Hispaniola by tomorrow afternoon where it eventually dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Convection starting to take over East of the presumed Center, while the large area to the SW dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I agree, but I like the improvements over the last few hours, and hopefully things will continue to improve approaching the diurnal max tonight. If you look closely at the 12z HWRF, it actually takes the convection currently near St Croix several hundred miles North of Hispaniola by tomorrow afternoon where it eventually dissipates. The low-level structure looks good, and it only has a couple more hours of heavy shear, but one thing I failed to take into account is that the 12z HWRF is using the old coordinates that are off by a good deal. I could see the DMAX going either way tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I'm finding it incredulous that recon is finding 60 mph winds from a nearly naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just now, Superstorm93 said: The low-level structure looks good, and it only has a couple more hours of heavy shear, but one thing I failed to take into account is that the 12z HWRF is using the old coordinates that are off by a good deal. I could see the DMAX going either way tonight. I'm far from a tropical expert, but look how strong the clockwise winds are near Hispaniola, which seems to be helping to increase outflow on the Northern and Western sides of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, PSUBlizzicane2007 said: I'm finding it incredulous that recon is finding 60 mph winds from a nearly naked swirl. It looked pretty excellent last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Convection starting to take over East of the presumed Center, while the large area to the SW dissipates. Is that drifting southwestward? Or is that just dying convection being sheared away from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Multiple obs of 60 mph winds... That's kind of ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12Z Euro looking decent. Keeps it weak over the next five days but crosses far Southern FL on Sunday and looks to strengthen once in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 EURO looks further south and much slower by 96 hours... Should be primed in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Stalled just off the FL West coast for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Euro is further east and very Ukie like ( track wise ) Pounds the west coast of Florida and stalls there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Literally rides the FL coast from near Miami, all the way around the peninsula, and now headed towards the big bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12Z Euro breaks down the ridge a lot more than previous runs it changes its orientation too, allowing it (Hermine) to scoot along the W coast of FL... Not sure I'm buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 983mb into the FL big bend early morning hours on Wednesday, after dumping 10-20" of rain along the entire length of Western Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: 12Z Euro breaks down the ridge a lot more than previous runs it changes its orientation too, allowing it (Hermine) to scoot along the W coast of FL... Not sure I'm buying that. Gaston is also much further west this run.. Adds to ridge breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 12Z Euro breaks down the ridge a lot more than previous runs it changes its orientation too, allowing it (Hermine) to scoot along the W coast of FL... Not sure I'm buying that. yeah that is bullsh!t EURo eps will be way west of the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said: Multiple obs of 60 mph winds... That's kind of ludicrous. What station is that? I could not find a station in the Lesser Antilles reporting higher winds. But I might have missed something. The whole cloud pattern here looks like it could be a 35kt - 45 kt tropical storm already, but you don't necessarily have to take my word on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 This reminds me a lot of Erika last year. Essentially formed at the same time. Large wave, not vertically stacked, similar track with at least some interaction with Hispaniola (just a tad north with 99L I think, whereas Ericka got obliterated by Hispanola, but that remains to be seen), lots of uncertainty regarding track and strength, and also lots of potential. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 What station is that? I could not find a station in the Lesser Antilles reporting higher winds. But I might have missed something. The whole cloud pattern here looks like it could be a 35kt - 45 kt tropical storm already, but you don't necessarily have to take my word on it.That was recon. Flight level on the left and SFMR on the right. Eric Blake said they could be a little too high obviously. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I dont think it will amount to much. rainmaker but it will be lucky to be a cat1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 It looks alot worse now. im hoping it will poof. nothing has threatened florida for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 There are 2 main areas of low level vorticity, clearly seen in the vis imagery. One is moving west, crashing head on with Hispaniola and the other one is moving WNW, north of PR. They are probably interacting with each other, doing some Fujiwhara. Only after one disappears or coalesce into one we'll have any chance of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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