2016 Atlantic Hurricane season

[wxmx]

We are currently stuck in a pattern which favors west moving ULLs in the Caribbean/GoM. Those help enhance upper level divergence on trailing TWs. This means weak disturbances that flare in the Gulf of Honduras, just before hitting the Yucatan and emerge in the BoC, where they might continue to fester. One such disturbance is currently crossing the Yucatan, and will get into the BoC tomorrow. A TD or a weak TS might develop before it runs out of water.

 

On that note, the GFS has been very adamant with another developing TW in the NW Caribbean...it has had it for at least 16-20 runs in a row. No other model is as bullish on development as the GFS. So far the big ridge over the CONUS has prevented much poleward motion of the track, but it appears a ridge west/trough east pattern might last long enough to change the steering currents of anything entering the BoC in the 8-12 days timeframe, although we are entering July and such longwave patterns don't dig very far south.

[Amped]

We are currently stuck in a pattern which favors west moving ULLs in the Caribbean/GoM. Those help enhance upper level divergence on trailing TWs. This means weak disturbances that flare in the Gulf of Honduras, just before hitting the Yucatan and emerge in the BoC, where they might continue to fester. One such disturbance is currently crossing the Yucatan, and will get into the BoC tomorrow. A TD or a weak TS might develop before it runs out of water.

 

On that note, the GFS has been very adamant with another developing TW in the NW Caribbean...it has had it for at least 16-20 runs in a row. No other model is as bullish on development as the GFS. So far the big ridge over the CONUS has prevented much poleward motion of the track, but it appears a ridge west/trough east pattern might last long enough to change the steering currents of anything entering the BoC in the 8-12 days timeframe, although we are entering July and such longwave patterns don't dig very far south.

 

GFS developed a lot of storms in the BOC last year and almost none verified. I haved noticed that when the GFS predicts development in the BOC, a storm forms in the EPAC around that time frame. The 12z EURO is showing this.

[Kevin Reilly]

We are currently stuck in a pattern which favors west moving ULLs in the Caribbean/GoM. Those help enhance upper level divergence on trailing TWs. This means weak disturbances that flare in the Gulf of Honduras, just before hitting the Yucatan and emerge in the BoC, where they might continue to fester. One such disturbance is currently crossing the Yucatan, and will get into the BoC tomorrow. A TD or a weak TS might develop before it runs out of water.

 

On that note, the GFS has been very adamant with another developing TW in the NW Caribbean...it has had it for at least 16-20 runs in a row. No other model is as bullish on development as the GFS. So far the big ridge over the CONUS has prevented much poleward motion of the track, but it appears a ridge west/trough east pattern might last long enough to change the steering currents of anything entering the BoC in the 8-12 days timeframe, although we are entering July and such longwave patterns don't dig very far south.

Looks like the PNA is heading to +3 near July 2nd Ridge in the west trough in the east pretty substantial for early July we shall see though.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

95L looks promising, could we have another BOC system already?

[wxmx]

GFS developed a lot of storms in the BOC last year and almost none verified. I haved noticed that when the GFS predicts development in the BOC, a storm forms in the EPAC around that time frame. The 12z EURO is showing this.

The EPac system is a different wave. Actually the 0z Euro has the BoC system in the medium range, but it's kind of similar to what we have had already, a weak system headed for eastern MX. The GFS has also trended to a weaker, land-hugging system, with another one on it's trail.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

African Tropical Wave near 10N over western Africa is developing a nice curvature and spin as well as developing convection as the circulation reaches water instead of dying off it is increasing in volume.   Could this be our first Cape Verde Storm of the season?  Even if the MJO is unfavorable these easterly waves can still be maintained.

[tmagan]

I was just thinking the last time there was a Category five hurricane within several hundred miles of the U.S. east coast was, I believe, Andrew in 1992.

[a5ehren]

edit: whoops

[Floydbuster]

I was thinking the other day about return periods for hurricanes. I know there is no precise basis, but they seem to have some clear factors in their favor.

 

A Cat 4/5 U.S. landfall only seems to occur 1-3 times per decade.

 

1880s - '86 Indianola (155 mph - 925 mb)

1890s - '93 Chenier Louisiana (135 mph - 948 mb)
            '98 Georgia (135 mph - 938 mb)

1900s - '00 Galveston (140 mph - 936 mb)

1910s - '15 Galveston (135 mph - 940 mb)
            '16 Texas (135 mph - 932 mb)
            '19 Keys (150 mph - 927 mb)

1920s - '26 Great Miami (145 mph - 930 mb)
          - '28 Okeechobee (145 mph - 929 mb)

1930s - '32 Freeport (150 mph - 935 mb)
            '35 Labor Day (185 mph - 892 mb)

1940s - '45 Florida (135 mph - 949 mb)
            '47 Florida (135 mph - 943 mb)
            '48 Florida (135 mph - 940 mb)
            '49 Florida (135 mph - 954 mb)

1950s - '50 King (135 mph - 955 mb)
            '54 Hazel (135 mph - 938 mb)

1960s - Donna
            Carla
            Camille

1970s - (Likely Celia 1970)

1980s - Hugo

1990s - Andrew

2000s - Charley

2010s - TBD

So pretty much one a decade, with the 1940s being the exception with four Cat 4 landfalls. But in reality, Cat 4 or 5 winds have only struck U.S. coastlines five times in the last fifty years (Camille, likely Celia, Hugo, Andrew and Charley).

 

Now we know Cat 5 landfalls are even more rare than Cat 4s, so let's break down the landfalls of Category 5 storms in the U.S.

 

1935 to Camille: 34 years

Camille to Andrew: 23 years

 

So the median number would mean on average, a Cat 5 strikes the U.S. every 28.5 years.

 

So technically, our next Cat 5 landfall should occur in the year 2020 give or take four or five years.

 

However, before 2020 comes and Hurricane Cristobal or Edouard joins the record books, let's try and extrapolate backwards. If we go back from 1935's landfall 23-34 years, you wind up in 1901-1912, pretty damn close to the 1900 Galveston or 1919 Keys, which were only 10-15 mph away from Cat 5 as per re-analysis.

 

Go back 28 years from the 1919 storm's 150 mph Key West strike, and you wind up in 1891, pretty close to the 1886 Indianola Texas landfall of 155 mph and 925 mb, a hair-splitting Cat 4/5 landfall.

 

Just thought I'd throw out the likelihood that we will most likely see a landfall of a 150 mph+ storm in the U.S. within the next few years.

[Sunny and Warm]

sample size on cat 5 storms hitting the US is waaay too small to make any guess as to return period.  Besides, wind isn't the only component to the ferocity of a storm.  Look at Katrina.  Landed cat 3 but surge was greater than any cat 5 ever produced.

[Jason WX]

Far out but interesting. 

[EastCoastHurricane]

Lowering pressures seems possible by the end of this month. 

[tmagan]

The NOAA satellite and information service web site has a GOES floater on the new disturbance over Senegal that the NHC has highlighted in the TWO:

I thought that this was out of the geographic range of the GOES satellite, or are floaters able to go beyond conventional geographic range?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

96L's center has -80C cloud top temperatures over it.  This system will be Earl next.

[Scott747]

97l has the potential to be interesting. Looks like it could actually stay S of the shredder and move towards the YP and into the Gulf.

[wxmx]

57 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

97l has the potential to be interesting. Looks like it could actually stay S of the shredder and move towards the YP and into the Gulf.

Yeah, been monitoring it as well. Models have been trending south significantly. Too far in time to know if there will be a strong enough trough that can be felt that deep in the Caribbean in early August so it doesn't head crash into Central America.

[wxmx]

97L is organizing in spite of it's relatively fast forward motion. There's a chance it could get to TD or even weak TS before reaching the central Caribbean, where land interaction and a weak ULL north of the Bahamas, which could impart some westerly shear, could halt development. Afterwards, however, the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico look prime for development, with the only hindrance being land interaction with the Yucatan. Development in the GoM is tricky, since it's uncertain where it would get offshore...but if it's N of 19N, then significant development is possible.

Track appears relatively straightforward, with ridging all the way to the W GoM. Only one weak trough is expected to go north of our disturbance, while in the Central and Western Caribbean, but it appears it won't dig far enough south to erode the ridging. Ridging should build behind it fast afterwards and it will only depend on orientation of said ridge on how much poleward motion should we see on the track. Models are forecasting a steady W to WNW track all the way, in a classic "Caribbean Cruiser" fashion.

 

 

[wxeyeNH]

As of 4pm it sure looks good on the vis. satellite.  I believe many of the Caribbean Islands are in a drought situation.  Maybe this system will be a net positive as it moves through. Strong enough for some meaningful rain but not strong enough to cause damage.  Meteorologically we now have something to watch. 

[hurricaneman]

Even South Texas isn't out of the woods yet

[wxmx]

Ridging appears just too strong. May never see the GoM or just the extreme SW portion of it.

[Drz1111]

Frankly, I think the more interesting question is whether there might be a rare TC landfall on the Guajira Peninsula.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

As of the 2030utc satellite imagery, visible satellite imagery suggests a low level circulation is either present, or in the form of developing rapidly.  Rotation seen on radar out of PR could be Mid level, but it is intensifying and rotating stronger and stronger as it leaves the radar's sight.  I think 97L is also slowing down in forward speed and has a strong upper level anticyclone over it producing strong ventilation.  I think development odds should be increased to 70/90.

[Drz1111]

Well that escalated quickly.  Looks like a circulation developed under that curved band and took over from the center further south.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I agree DRZ1111, 97L looks to have a LLC present, but is it closed.  Man I wish that ASCAT pass actually picks it up.

[David Reimer]

Invest 97L has organized quickly overnight and that caught NHC a bit by surprise. The 403rd is putting a last-minute flight together which should depart in about an hour (1630Z). Big props to them for getting a mission put together so quickly. 

[Drz1111]

Even if they don't want to upgrade until they find a closed LLC, I am surprised they wouldn't issue TS watches for the south coast of Jamaica.

[David Reimer]

39 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Even if they don't want to upgrade until they find a closed LLC, I am surprised they wouldn't issue TS watches for the south coast of Jamaica.

At this time they can't issue any sort of warning/watch until the system is designated a tropical cyclone. That's a well-known weakness in systems that develop close to shore. It sounds like that should chance next year (2017). 

[wxmx]

Getting the Sonic the Hedgehog look on visible. Potential LLC forming around 16.7N 72.9W

[Superstorm93]

43 sustained on the south side of the circulation Jamaica under a TS warning. 

 

Recon should be fun. 

 

[Superstorm93]

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