Ground Scouring Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, so for the 2016 season the analogs so far would be 1938 and 1955. Let the weenie fireworks begin. Do you have any scientific basis for this statement, besides ALEX? 1937-38 and 1954-55 had a completely different ENSO set-up from this winter season's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Do you have any scientific basis for this statement, besides ALEX? 1937-38 and 1954-55 had a completely different ENSO set-up from this winter season's. He wasn't being serious, he was just comparing to 2 other seasons with January hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Latest NMME model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Long-range guidance (CanSIPS, NMME, CFSv2, etc.) has been fairly consistent in depicting a 2011-type summertime pattern at 500 mb, with a mean ridge over the southern High Plains and a weakness over the western Atlantic. That type of pattern would be mostly very unfavorable for storms to hit the United States, unless homegrown MCV-type/frontal development were to occur in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, storms approaching from the MDR would likely curve out to sea or continue into the Caribbean, where westerly shear may be elevated thanks to the tenacious +PDO (shown by all guidance for ASO '16), with attendant warmer-than-average SST projected off the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. We'll likely have a slightly-above-average season with few, if any, U.S. landfalls. 2011 tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The way things are looking we may or may not have an active hurricane season, it all will depend on the water temps SW of the Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 Nice warming in MDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Joquin and Erika have been retired in the Atlantic and Patricia in the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Question I thought some of you may know the answer to. In the various seasonal forecasts for Atlantic Basin tropical activity, for each predicted/observed parameter, such as named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, I've seen forecasters typically issue forecasts for below normal, normal or above normal observations vs. past history. What I'm not sure of is what do these forecasters consider below normal, normal and above normal? For example the CSU forecast for last year includes a table of median values from 1981-2010 for named storms (12.0), hurricanes (6.5) and major hurricanes (2.0). However, then don't define, anywhere, what below normal, normal and above normal are for these three observations. I assume there are ranges that the average of the bottom third of seasons meets, that the middle third of seasons meets and that the upper third of seasons meets. If they don't show what these ranges are for each outcome, it's hard to verify their accuracy scores. Later in their verification report for 2015, they include Table 6, which shows how many of the past 17 seasons they correctly predicted below or above normal forecasts for 7 parameters, including the 3 I've been discussing (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes). They don't show how many of their predictions were for "normal" vs. the normal range. I'm actually wondering if this is simply a binary outcome of just above or below normal, such that the 70-80% "accuracy" scores they list should be compared to 50% probability of being right from guessing (with only 2 outcomes) instead of the 33% probability of being right (with 3 possible outcomes - below, normal and above normal) I've been assuming based on climatology. 70-80% accuracy is still very good vs. 50% expected, but not nearly as good vs. 33% accuracy expected if one guessed. For named storms, they had 15 of 17 seasons correct with regard to being above or below average, for hurricanes, they had 13 of 17 seasons correct with regard to being above or below average, and for major hurricanes, they had 13 of 17 seasons correct with regard to above or below average. Does that mean none of their forecasts were for "average" years? I know that's not true, which is why I find it confusing - for 2016, they're predicting an average year, but surely that can't mean they're only correct if they hit the median numbers right on the nose. Am I missing something obvious here? Thanks in advance... http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/nov2015/nov2015.pdf http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2016/apr2016/apr2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Please note, there's a hurricane season contest thread (pinned) and you can enter up to June 1st without penalty, probably on June 2nd also, I will start imposing late penalties when it seems that we have the usual number of entrants if no early June storms loom. Entrants will find all instructions in post #1 of that thread, but just to inform you in advance, the seasonal count will include already-happened Alex (January) which counted for 1/1/0 and will also include Bonnie, so if that doesn't exceed t.s. limits, you go into the contest at 2/1/0 and add on what you think the rest of the 2016 season will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Convection is holding with this wave in the Caribbean . It could form into a depression before even getting into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Convection is holding with this wave in the Caribbean . It could form into a depression before even getting into the gulf. Would be very interesting, so far this season had been full of surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 going to be another lame season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 going to be another lame season Its been a disaster for a decade now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Its been a disaster for a decade now. I thought 2008 was decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 going to be another lame season it only takes one. homestead found out in 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 it only takes one. homestead found out in 92. You got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 What might be Colin is now a 70% in the 5-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Early vis shows it's already in the SE GOM, north of the Yucatan. Convection is currently sheared to the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Colin came and went. Just in case anyone checks in here in October wondering why there is T.D. 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 and now the GFS shows a tropical system developing along NC coast in long range, just in time for my week vaca in Duck. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 The setup on the ECMWF and GFS is somewhat intriguing. Shows the tail end of a cold front getting caught underneath a building West Atlantic high in a rather prime region for development. Also has some light support from the ensembles as well. Obviously a ways out, but I'd like this setup for the seasons first truely interesting system with the ridge overhead and proximity to the Gulf Stream. Something to watch. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 so what do you guys think about the ~subtropical storm this weekend off the east coast that's been in the ECMWF for a few days? GFS has had more of a drawn out front with several less intense lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 so what do you guys think about the ~subtropical storm this weekend off the east coast that's been in the ECMWF for a few days? GFS has had more of a drawn out front with several less intense lows The ECMWF has been consistent on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I doubt anything tropical/subtropical will develop near the SE coast. It might have a small chance if it enters the GoM, but environment should be hostile, especially if the BoC feature develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 The current lemon which is almost over the Yucatan has a decent chance of developing in the BoC. Nothing exciting, TD or TS Danielle tops. Upper level conditions should be marginal, becoming favorable near landfall in the SW GoM (around 21N). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Watch that massive MJO pulse in the Indian Ocean. GFS has been consistently bringing it into the Atlantic in a few weeks. Could see a weak CV system out of it. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 94L has a well defined LLC. Shear won't abate much, but it will be slightly more favorable past 24 hours, close to landfall. I'm confident we'll have a namewaster TS Danielle, with a LF close to the Tampico area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 I agree with the LLC being well defined, I think HHs find a tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon, but she will be a depression in the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Surface pressures to the southwest and northwest of 94L are falling quickly and are around 1012mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Latest TWO talks about the well defined center. I agree that we may have a TD by morning and a TS at the time recon reaches the system. Latest models show a much improved upper level environment several hours prior to LF, with an anticyclone developing overhead the system. If this pans out, it will depend on the cyclone structure at the time if it can go some significant intensification prior to LF. Based on the above, my best guess is a mid end TS Monday morning, near or just south of Tampico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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