jgf Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 The Euro shows something developing off the florida/georgia coast, by saturday am on nov 5.., and then moving over bermuda within a day or two. Do any of the experts have any opinions on this? is it even tropical? all i have is the mslp.., and by sunday, the areal extent is huge, but maybe it starts out tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Models are suggesting possible development in the sw Caribbean in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 NHC now has 60% odds of tropical development in their 5 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 I think this is a go. Nearly every model is now developing a hurricane. The 111516 12z Euro is now showing a much deeper hurricane and is bringing the system north near Jamaica in the late run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 FWIW GFS has a 916mb low off Honduras at 186hrs. It's been over deepening a lot of storms at this range this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Woah! This just went from "interesting little late-season storm" to "potential catastrophic event." Incredible strengthening shown by the GFS, too; a 40 mb drop in 12 hours, and 60 mb in 24. This intensity is obviously very hard to take seriously (especially for this time of the year), and I don't give it much credence. But this must be watched now, no doubt, as this is NOT in typical "fantasy range." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Not a tropical guy so forgive me. I'm on a cruise leaving out of FLL to the S Caribbean a week from today, next Tuesday. This storm will keep way south, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Today's guidance not as intense, more like a tropical storm moving west into Nicaragua around Monday 21st. A broad area of unsettled weather extends from this system east-north-east across Puerto Rico to link up with Atlantic seaboard low cold front, so would expect to find some thunderstorms after 3-4 days heading south perhaps around PR, VI, as far south as Martinique, but nothing extreme shown on any charts at present. If heading for Yucatan would monitor this but if always north and east of Jamaica, probably no threat at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Thanks. It's 11 days, goes as far SW as Martinique/St Kitts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Euro has a microwave, GFS just has a lot of rain for Panama and CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 90L has remained very broad and slow to develop the past three days. However, the system looks to be narrowing and consolidating around 11N 80.5W. Due to recent trends, recon has been scheduled to investigate the system at 1800z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Max intensity HWRF 957mb GFDL 977mb GFS: 996mb CMC 996mb (240hrs) ECMWF: 981mb (Maybe lower Tropical tidbits) I am leaning towards the more intense solutions. Models are showing a small core, and it is in a very favorable environment after 84hrs. If it can stay over water it will deepen rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Track is a little more of a straight line and landfall is a bit south of this map, but the intensity looks accurate. It's all very sparsely populated on the east coast of Nicaragua anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Tropical Storm Otto has formed. The core convection is limited and bubbly(dry air), but it's enough and is gradually organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 GFS shows a much stronger storm than the EURO. RI occurs on the GFS sometime Wednesday or early Thursday followed by landfall at about 03z Friday. Euro is weaker and about 12hrs faster, so is the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Otto near hurricane strength. Impressive little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 New AF mission took off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 The NHC upgraded it to hurricane this evening before recon got in there, but recon is finding that it has not strengthened since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Back to being a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Upper level wind streaming in from the southeast took a bit of a toll overnight. The NHC is expecting it to back off a little and allow Otto to regain some strength before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Looks like the EURO and CMC did a better job than the GFS. Too much SE shear, all models over deepened this in the MR but the GFS was the most guilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Looks like it could be a crossover candidate before it dissipates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Holy crap if this is legit!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 That's a hell of a rebound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Looks like ~20mb deepening in around 70 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Dropsondes 11/23 22:56: 992mb 11/24 00:01z: 986mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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