Amped Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: ex-93L is a tropical cyclone IMO feeding off the nearby ocean and inland lakes/swamps..could be JULIA already with sustained winds of 40 MPH being reported offshore been getting better organized all day...still moderate shear but all that is doing is causing the LLC to reform near the mid level center further east and closer to the coast/water I bet lots of internal discussion at the NHC..how you you name a storm or declare it a depression when its over land and may remain inland....do you declare it or not? 1012mb at ST Augustine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 AL, 93, 2016091400, , BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on tropical storm ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda. Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that an area of low pressure is located just inland near St. Augustine, Florida. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with winds to tropical storm force along and just offshore of portions of the northeast Florida coast. This system has been maintaining its organization through the afternoon and early evening, and advisories will likely be initiated later this evening. The low is expected to move north-northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph tonight, near and parallel to the northeast coast of Florida. Strong gusty winds, some to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the northeast Florida coast tonight, and heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday. Some areas from northeast Florida to South Carolina could receive 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Please consult your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this system, including possible warnings. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 4 hours ago, Cheeznado said: New ECMWF has a pretty good 'cane by 240 hours, could be a threat. GFS has something too at 240, albeit much weaker and less organized but looks to get swept out to sea with a front exiting the east coast. I have a vacation planned on the shore of NC starting the 24th so personally hoping this one doesn't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 29 minutes ago, Amped said: 1012mb at ST Augustine. center is about 5 miles WNW of there per radar and coordinates 29.9 and 81.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Advisories to be initiated on Tropical Storm Julia at 11 per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Be interesting to see the track the NHC has for Julia she doesn't appear to be headed anywhere in a hurry....and models have a poor handle on her so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Be interesting to see the track the NHC has for Julia she doesn't appear to be headed anywhere in a hurry....and models have a poor handle on her so far..... I think it may be a situation where the Cone of Uncertainty is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think it may be a situation where the Cone of Uncertainty is huge. Yeah imagine flooding concerns for north FL, SE GA and SE SC going to be biggest issues....those areas can handle a lot of water though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ponte Vedra Beach to Altahama Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case, tropical storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.6 West. Julia is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a reduction in forward speed tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. Recent observations indicate that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along the northeast coast of Florida from Ponte Vedra northward to the mouth of the St. Johns River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the tropical storm warning area. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near the northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coastlines through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and stream discharges. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible tonight through Wednesday morning across parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 seems the center Julia is further east and may be offshore, its west if the gulf stream but still ober 80-82F shelf water...wind shear is decreasing some too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 TD 12 has formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, AlexD said: TD 12 has formed GFS has it near the Carolinas in like 9 days. long ways out. The next disturbance coming off Africa is predicted to be a cyclone as well...possibly even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Bacon Strips said: GFS has it near the Carolinas in like 9 days. long ways out. The next disturbance coming off Africa is predicted to be a cyclone as well...possibly even stronger. It would be nice to have something to track, given that its the peak of the season. It seems that the latter half of the season has been the more active one in the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 TD12 seems pretty far north already...17N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 14 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: TD12 seems pretty far north already...17N? I guess the weaker this stays the better chance it has to impact the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I guess the weaker this stays the better chance it has to impact the U.S. With our luck it'll be an open wave at that point. Atlantic has been pretty hostile so far this September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: With our luck it'll be an open wave at that point. Atlantic has been pretty hostile so far this September NHC shifted the track to the south from last update. Lets hope this changes the pattern for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 On 9/12/2016 at 1:36 PM, Tenman Johnson said: True global warming would be increasing moisture Global warming could also be causing an expansion of the Sahara, which would mean MORE dry air coming off of Africa, not less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 The NHC is a great doctor. They made Paine go away. Quote ..PAINE GOES AWAY... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 06z GFS showing a possible Cat 1-2 landfall event for the WC of FL in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 1 hour ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said: 06z GFS showing a possible Cat 1-2 landfall event for the WC of FL in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see if it develops. GFS has been showing that for a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has been showing that for a few runs Really? I could have sworn I made sure previous runs didn't show anything more than TD or TS. Old eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 15 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said: Really? I could have sworn I made sure previous runs didn't show anything more than TD or TS. Old eyes. GFS has been showing something in the gulf and coming right near Florida for a few runs. Still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 All GFS runs for the past few days, and sporadic runs for days before that, have at least hinted at a wave traversing the MDR way down at 10 degrees or lower, which then organizes as it reaches the southern islands/south american coast. The euro is showing something a bit farther north. It's at least something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 This wave coming off of Africa is pretty interesting later on down the road. GFS has been consistent showing something (TS/cane) in the GOM D10-14.. Other models generally agree on development of the wave, but differ on location, which should be expected this far out. Lots will change, so there's lots to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 The upper-air pattern sure looks favorable for a low latitude CV storm to sneak into the western GOM in week 2. Worth keeping an eye on, though there's a lot of steps between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Karl looks to be organizing. Maybe a little fun for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 18Z GFS remind me of Ike on the far out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 12Z GFS/Euro look pretty nasty. Both show a major hurricane in the Caribbean west of Jamaica at hour 240 moving. Euro moving N/NW toward GOM/Cuba, GFS W/NW toward Yucatan/ GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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