My Jan 7 outlook article for CWG

[usedtobe]

Here's the article.  Week 2 is tricky.  The pattern is probably a below normal one for snow by a bit because of the lack of any hint of a 50 50 low but I get bit nervous when the subtropical jet is starting to get active way out towards day 10.  Neither the models or I are good enough to completely dismiss the possibility. 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/07/two-week-outlook-abnormally-warm-to-wintry-cold-and-the-slightest-hint-of-snow/

[NorthArlington101]

Good read as always, thanks. 

[usedtobe]

I doubt anyone will read this comment but today's 18Z GFS pretty much shows why you can't say anything definitive about snow 10 days out no matter what the models say.   It now shows snow at least for the western suburbs for Jan 17th and if you look at the anomalies has more of a negative anomaly near Nova Scotia than the earlier runs.  That doesn't mean we get snow,  it only means that at that time range,  we still don't know enough about all the players to make a call.  Based on the storm track, I still think we have a hard road to hoe but not an impossible one. 

[ravensrule]

I doubt anyone will read this comment but today's 18Z GFS pretty much shows why you can't say anything definitive about snow 10 days out no matter what the models say. It now shows snow at least for the western suburbs for Jan 17th and if you look at the anomalies has more of a negative anomaly near Nova Scotia than the earlier runs. That doesn't mean we get snow, it only means that at that time range, we still don't know enough about all the players to make a call. Based on the storm track, I still think we have a hard road to hoe but not an impossible one.

Great read like always. You matters well start posting in the panic thread.

[winterymix]

This morning GFS offers two storm systems the week of the 17th, both with

marginal temperatures and probable mixed winter stuff.