Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep, FFC still following the GFS. FWIW, I currently have almost all of the southeast forecast, AFD's, and HWO's from each forecast office, all in one place for easy reference. If you go to my home page, on the top menu, click on Forecast, Forecast Products, and go to the state and forecast office from there. The forecast page also has the corresponding links to the respective AFD and HWO. I should have the rest of them finished in a hour or so. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. GFS SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEARS THE CWA OUT PRECIP WISE BY SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF US...HOWEVER THE THICKNESSES SUGGEST EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA COULD STILL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THOUGH. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...A WINTER WEATHER SITUATION COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL CONTINUALLY NEED TO BE RE- EVALUATED AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SOON. Typical- FFC and some other offices are the "anti Bastardis"- while he will always pick the most extreme model, FFC will invariably be super conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep eventhough the L doesn't show up on Twisterdata's graphics you can tell at 84 hours it is definitely forming on the SW coast of LA near the TX line. The wind field in the model has it somewhat elongated but the general gist is it is there any nicely to the south. All in all probably not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Typical FFC disco.............:whistle: If you read the current forecast for Atlanta, you would think we were not even threatened by a snowstorm They have highs near 50 and low in the upper 20's.?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 500mb map looks weird at 84 on the 18z nam can someone explain whats going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Typical- FFC and some other offices are the "anti Bastardis"- while he will always pick the most extreme model, FFC will invariably be super conservative. I'm sure Glenn Burns from Channel 2 in Atlanta will be predicting a blizzard this weekend. He's the anti-FFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN250 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2010.DISCUSSION...CURRENT...CLOUDY DAY BUT RATHER MILD WITH TEMPS IN 40S N TO 50S S.WMFNT HAS MOVED N ACROSS CWA DURING DAY. HAS BEEN SOME VERY LITERAIN E 1/2.WEAK LO PRES OVER CNTRL AR MAKING SLOW PROGRESS E. EXPECTING ACHANCE OF LITE RN TONITE...MAINLY E 1/2...AS LO HEADS INTO TNVLY.STRONG HI PRES (1035 MB) OVER UPPER DAKOTAS AND MN WILL PROVIDEBAROCLINIC IMPETUS FOR SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN STATESBY FRI. ONSET SLOWER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRI. MODELS INFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR NAM...KEEPING OUR HOPES ALIVEFOR A WHITE XMAS. BEST PERIOD OF MEASURABLE SN WILL BE XMASEVE...AND GFS GIVES .3 QPF AROUND BNA...EXPANDING E INTO PLATEAUBY MIDNITE. THIS WOULD BE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST...AND 4INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF GFS RIGHT. FLY IN OINTMENT...12ZEURO HAS LO EVEN FURTHER S THAN B4 AND DELAYS START OF PRECIPSOME...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SN SAT. SO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUTPLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE BETTER DETERMINATION.BACKLASH SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SUN...AN EVEN MON...AS LO MOVESALONG ATLC COAST. LITE ADDITIONAL ACCUMLATION LIKELY...ESECIALLY E 1/2. [/font]QUITE COLD INTO TUE.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 500mb map looks weird at 84 on the 18z nam can someone explain whats going on? Maybe the phasing process? Which will be pretty early compared to the last Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Maybe the phasing process? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 There is our little guy (or big guy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Someone in another thread had posted an interesting link I didn't know about to the GGEM errors opposed to other models. Looks like the Euro always has the least. http://www.weatherof...on/index_e.html Also some interesting stuff here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No way I'm reading through 13 pages of a 'new' thread! GSP is already drawing battle lines. Gotta love it!! AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AREASALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WILL BE THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOWAND COULD HANG ON TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THE LONGEST. THE BOTTOMLINE OF ALL THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALLRATES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FA ISINCREASING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 No way I'm reading through 13 pages of a 'new' thread! GSP is already drawing battle lines. Gotta love it!! While the adjacent areas of GA in FFCs CWA are seeing "a 20 percent chance of rain/snow" in their NWS forecasts. Gotta love the coordination.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wasn't the GGEM in our corner with the EURO yesterday, now it's more in line with the GFS? Also didn't the Canadian back off the snowstorm prediction it was at yesterday? I'm feeling like little pieces of my house are falling apart!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Very cold weather for the south to follow this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The dgex is gonna show a huge hit. If anyone wants to post it when it comes out please do. It will be pure weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just for giggles the SREF Mean has snow coming into the Carolinas at 6z on Sunday....but I'm sure it's light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Speaking of the CMC, this ensemble mean doesn't look good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think it should say " Much Below Normal Temps Dec 25-28" instead of Dec 26-28. Temps on Dec 25 will be 10+ below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I will stay up for this radio show with Robert and Allan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This about warps it up folks>> http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2010/12/22/special-radio-show-5 j/k Hope the SE faithful can tune in or call. Make sure and speak real southern like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This about warps it up folks>> http://www.blogtalkr...al-radio-show-5 j/k Hope the SE faithful can tune in or call. Make sure and speak real southern like The jinx is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I will stay up for this radio show with Robert and Allan Absolutely will tune in! Don't forget about us GA folks tonight guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Absolutely will tune in! Don't forget about us GA folks tonight guys! I'll be heading in to work so I can't listen in. Don't forget your distant cousins in SC, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Lets hope the GFS continues the trend south at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Absolutely will tune in! Don't forget about us GA folks tonight guys! Hopefully they can get a word in edgewise over DT's barking. Eagerly awaiting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How come I wasn't invited on to the radio show? I guess I am just the meteorologist you want to have a beer with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Andy Wood has posted a great weather webcast video which you can watch at the top right hand side of this page: http://www.foxcaroli...ther/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You know FFC had to breath a sigh of relief when the GFS came out. They were dreading having to mention snow this far out. Once all of the models agree they will have no choice. Also, can someone tell me if this is an overnight thing for GA. Early morning, last I heard. Yeah, it is early days. I kind of thought the FFC reading was ok. I mean, climo says there is mostly no way this happens, and without full agreement yet on the models, what can they say? If you take the mean, the low crosses Ga. somewhere, and that usually, 8 or 9 times out of ten says No right there. I'd be way cautious too, until Thur. or the goofy comes on board. This is Ga.... Snow on Christmas won't happen but once in a bunch of years if you go by history. They have me at 38 and rain and that will be right a million times out of a million and ten...and back end flurries for you would be right most times to, lol. But every once in a long, long while the drunk squirrel catches the unicorn, so maybe they will change come Thur. Hope so! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Bmx starting to come on board.... This afternoon's disco. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BIG TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BOTH FAVOR A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT SNOW LINE WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH MORE PRECIPITATION BASED ON ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A RAIN-SNOW MIXTURE SOUTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN FLURRIES. BASED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Oh how I hope the radar will look similar to this For the South, the Euro was not far off if it bombed a little earlier BMX LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BIG TROF DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. BOTH FAVOR A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT SNOW LINE WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH MORE PRECIPITATION BASED ON ECMWF. AT THIS TIME WILL SHOW CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A RAIN-SNOW MIXTURE SOUTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN FLURRIES. BASED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ON A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. A SLOW WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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