HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yeah at hr 60 its about 20 miles south of 12z? maybe a little more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM looks more like the GFS at 69 Woo! America vs the world! I expect changes like these with these 06/18z runs until the system is on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 69 has a swath of precip from St. Loius to just north of Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this is the first run in the past 10 or so NAM runs where it showed the 5h low faster than the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Keep in mind the NAM uses the previous run of the GFS for boundary conditions, thus especially in the 72-84 hour range, the model is going to be very close to the GFS for these events where features start outside or near the edge of it's grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Next frame will tell the tale but our system looks sheered out over the central US @72 heading into Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 <br />Woo! America vs the world! I expect changes like these with these 06/18z runs until the system is on land.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Why are the 6 and 18z runs considered off runs with hiccups? Hear that those runs aren't very good and just wondering why. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like it's heading south @75 might be a mix between Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Why are the 6 and 18z runs considered off runs with hiccups? Here that those runs aren't very good and just wondering why. Thanks I believe one of the main reasons is because they use older data if I'm not mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Why are the 6 and 18z runs considered off runs with hiccups? Here that those runs aren't very good and just wondering why. Thanks Not as much data is ingested into the models like 12 and 0z. They launch weather balloons for those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 nice precip breaking out in east texas at 75 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 338 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. GFS SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEARS THE CWA OUT PRECIP WISE BY SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF US...HOWEVER THE THICKNESSES SUGGEST EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA COULD STILL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THOUGH. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...A WINTER WEATHER SITUATION COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL CONTINUALLY NEED TO BE RE- EVALUATED AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Keep in mind the NAM uses the previous run of the GFS for boundary conditions, thus especially in the 72-84 hour range, the model is going to be very close to the GFS for these events where features start outside or near the edge of it's grid. Thanks for the info! Looks like that could be the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not as much data is ingested into the models like 12 and 0z. They launch weather balloons for those runs. Oh ok, thank you. Makes sense then that they aren't as accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 @78 it's moving our low into LA...moisture is spreading into Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I believe one of the main reasons is because they use older data if I'm not mistaken? yes, this is one of the reasons... 0z and 12z runs have fresh RAOB ingest for each time, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 @81 it looks to be like the Euro ....however a met might want to chime about it, I could be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yes, this is one of the reasons... 0z and 12z runs have fresh RAOB ingest for each time, respectively. Once the system is on shore I think all of these models especially the GFS and NAM will come up with different solutions. Does anyone know how well our models are sampling the data on this wave compared to the Foreign models.. especially the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Once the system is on shore I think all of these models especially the GFS and NAM will come up with different solutions. Does anyone know how well our models are sampling the data on this wave compared to the Foreign models.. especially the Euro? I know the Euro has far superior resolution, Im not sure about sampling however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 84 HR NAM does pop off the Gulf Low along the same area as the last 12z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You know FFC had to breath a sigh of relief when the GFS came out. They were dreading having to mention snow this far out. Once all of the models agree they will have no choice. Also, can someone tell me if this is an overnight thing for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out. I cant imagine a mean ever showing anything close to what the OP has shown. Only useful to look at track of LP as well as upper air features from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep, FFC still following the GFS. FWIW, I currently have almost all of the southeast forecast, AFD's, and HWO's from each forecast office, all in one place for easy reference. If you go to my home page, on the top menu, click on Forecast, Forecast Products, and go to the state and forecast office from there. The forecast page also has the corresponding links to the respective AFD and HWO. I should have the rest of them finished in a hour or so. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. GFS SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEARS THE CWA OUT PRECIP WISE BY SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD THE BULK OF ANY WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF US...HOWEVER THE THICKNESSES SUGGEST EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA COULD STILL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THOUGH. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...A WINTER WEATHER SITUATION COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL CONTINUALLY NEED TO BE RE- EVALUATED AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 @78 it's moving our low into LA...moisture is spreading into Kentucky. At 78 it looks like its starting to phase. Should spawn a gulf low coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out. Good to see you (somewhat) optimistic for this event. What do you make of FFC's discussion? Is there any way they can justify their preference of the GFS in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I tell you what, if you offered me 2-4 inches from this storm I'd take it in a heartbeat and would probably have lots of company. I'm assuming the totals on the ensembles would still be more than 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 78 it looks like its starting to phase. Should spawn a gulf low coming up. yes it does at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I tell you what, if you offered me 2-4 inches from this storm I'd take it in a heartbeat and would probably have lots of company. agreed but more would be even more amazing . That deformation band on the Euro just needs to be a tad farther west for us to really cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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