PennyForYourThoughts Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know this is probably a stupid question, but I've just been checking around to other sites, and is it true that there is a possibility of snow reaching all the way to the gulf coast this weekend? Lie to me and say YES its possible...please? hehe Anyway, just wanted to wish everyone a very MERRY CHRISTMAS and Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Don't be so sure, the storm hasn't even entered the US yet. The fact is Euro looks great but we won't know until right before the event. That is what makes the thrill of the chase, the highs are really high and the lows are really low. The GFS and Euro won't be so different closer to the event. The track will be more of a consensus. The phasing is something you might not know how much until it happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 301 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010 LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES STILL REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS STILL FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND THEN TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 3/4THS OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE 1/4TH OF THE CWA...THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE EVENT...WITH A CHANCE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK END. AT THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION ISSUES TO DEAL WITH AS TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM at 24. not much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i believe the HPC prelim disco which was before the 12z runs said at the start of the period they used a 90/10 blend for the euro op to ensemble and then through the 4-6 day period 40/60 blend of op euro and its ensemble. but they said that the NAM and euro depiction is the most likely right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 33hrs it's rolling through central AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 New RAH HWO... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CHRISTMAS DAY... BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OR ANYONE PLANNING TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haven't the models lately shown this event to be all snow, not changing from rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 My goodness. Thats three or four runs in a row by the euro that shows the low bombing out just in the nick of time off the SE coast. If that holds, the piedmont and much of the coastal plain of NC/SC could see quite a snow storm. It will certainly be interesting to see how it goes over the next few days. Thanks for all the insight folks. Love the look of that setup with the low just off shore and cold hp in postion to our north. Thats classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Haven't the models lately shown this event to be all snow, not changing from rain to snow? yes its plenty cold enough in RAH and most of nc excluding the coast, most on-air mets are being conservative at this time which is very smart dont wanna bust on calling a major storm and nothing happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 New RAH afternoon long range AFD .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY... FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY INTERESTING FOR THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST OFF THE CA COAST WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED/THURS AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE...WHILE NOT YET FULLY SAMPLED BY A SOLID OBSERVATION NETWORK...HAS BECOME BETTER HANDLED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SI FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND THE PHASING AND DEEPENING OF THESE WAVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US IS IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION WITH A CUT OFF H5 LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION BY SAT NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TRACK EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS FROM HE ECMWF LEAD TO A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE OF 990MB OR LESS OF THE NC COAST AND A STRONG BANDING SIGNALS OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. HAVE SEEN SOME CONVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 12-18 HRS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF THE GFS STORM TRACK TRENDING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF. FORECAST THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW...IF NOT ALL SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT BASED ON THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SURFACE LOW TRACKS BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS...BUT THE CANADIAN...ECMWF ENSEMBLE...NAEFS...AND NAM TO 84HRS ALL SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION TO SOME EXTENT. HPC HAS SHOWN A STRONG PREFERENCE TOWARD THE ECMWF ALSO. TIMING DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE MENTION OF VERY HIGH POPS FOR ANY ONE PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR A WINTER STORM OF DECENT IMPACT LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD ARE JUST AS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 MHX's long term AFD is just a cut and paste from the overnight package (they do this a lot btw), notice how they left out the "as of," yeah, not much coming out of this office today AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 258 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE TWRD THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO FRI WITH CONT DRY WX. UPR TRF AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SAT. WAA/LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LEAD TO CHC OF RAIN LATER FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT BUT DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP. AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN AND MAY SEE SOME MIX TO MAINLY SNOW NE SECTIONS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN...WITH DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS FOR THE POSS FROZEN PRECIP LATER SAT NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEEP LOW WELL TO THE N AND HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM CANADA. HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE 40S THEN EXPECT SOME LOWER 50S S AND E FRI INTO SAT. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MON WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mist Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GSP latest discussion: My link -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE PREVIOUS REASONING FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA CENTERED EITHER ON...OR AT LEAST 12 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF...CHRISTMAS DAY. HPC HAS PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE GFS WHICH IS THE WARMEST...DRIEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS. THEY HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE THE ECMWF MEANS...THOUGH THEY ALSO THINK THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF IS TOO DEEP WITH THE SRN STREAM LOW. STILL...MUCH MORE EMPHASIS HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE ECMWF/GEM WITH THIS RUN THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSTANT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...THOUGH THE LATEST RUN IS SLOWING THIS FEATURE DOWN AND PHASING MUCH MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO IT CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. IF ANYTHING...THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EVEN BETTER SETUP FOR SNOW AS THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN MAY BE AS MUCH AS 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS SOLUTION AS THE SFC LOW SLOWS IN RESPONSE TO THE AGGRESSIVELY DIGGING NRN STREAM ENERGY. THE 12 UTC GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE EC IN DIGGING THIS NRN STREAM ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPENING THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT HAS MORE PCPN WITH THE INITIAL SRN STREAM WAVE AND LESS WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEPENING STORM SINCE IT/S A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE. THIS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PCPN OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS WITH THE GEM. I/M STILL NOT COMFORTABLE GETTING INTO THE SPECIFICS OF HOW I THINK THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS BEEN STICKING TO IT/S GUNS AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WHILE THE LATER TWO MODELS ARE LOOKING EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FA...SAVE PERHAPS THE SRN PART OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...THE WAY THEY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED A BIT. THEREFORE I CAN/T REALLY SAY THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TERRIBLY CONSISTENT SO FAR. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PARTS OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE COAST...NW FLOW WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MTNS SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ALONG THE TN LINE AS THIS HAPPENS...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Almost all of my qpf(1.13) imby falls with 850 temps of -6 and progressively colder...14;1 or 16:1 ratios aren't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE PLACEMENT OF THELINE BETWEEN A WET CHRISTMAS AND A WHITE CHRISTMAS...AND ANOTHERROUND OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON LOW TRACKS FORSATURDAY. GFS BRINGS A WEAK LOW OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SPINS IT UPOFF HATTERAS SAT NIGHT. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHERSOUTH/OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT TIMING DISCREPANCIES LOWER MYCONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO LIMIT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARD AGFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS IT JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALLRAIN...AND LETS THE DRYING WIN THE RACE AGAINST COLD AIR SATNIGHT...SO NO CHANGEOVER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THIS FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITOREDCLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS...AS A SHIFT TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK COULD PUT SOME OF THE ILM CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR WINTRY PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM has it closed off at hr42. Still open at hr36 of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HPC goes with Euro and Canadian. Staying away from GFS still. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gsp just as bullish in the afternoon update. hpc does mention the opertional runs of the euro where too deep with the southern stream s/w. but have tossed out the gfs everything is still on track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Other then my initial timing so far I am happy with my first outllook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 New RAH afternoon long range AFD Good discussion. It's the GFS vs all the other models. But even the GFS has trended a little south with the last run and still gives some people in the SE a little snow on Christmas. The trends look wonderful with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM looks hand in hand with 12z @51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I/M STILL NOT COMFORTABLE GETTING INTO THE SPECIFICS OF HOW I THINKTHIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS BEEN STICKING TO IT/S GUNS AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WHILE THE LATER TWO MODELS ARE LOOKING EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE FA...SAVE PERHAPS THE SRN PART OF THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...THE WAY THEY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED A BIT. THEREFORE I CAN/T REALLY SAY THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TERRIBLY CONSISTENT SO FAR. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PARTS OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW. Not buying this out of GSP. Everything I have seen on the EURO suggests this area is game on! I understand the uncertainty but taken literally, these areas are all in. It has taken me 1 day and a half to catch up reading this discussion dating back to the 1st Christmas threat thread. Thanks for all of the disco by the serious hobbyist and Mets here as it has been outstanding as always (lot of tripping over weenies as always but thanks to Lookout for the clean up on "aisle 13"!!) I think, as I have discussed with WxinCanton and EmersonGA, the best bet for us in this part of GA is the deformation band giving all of N GA more than depicted on the QPF maps which are worthless this far out anyway. This scenario played out nicely for us during one event in January earlier this year. Going back to the Henry M post from last night, if his track is still this far North after the 4th run in a row of the EURO, he is doing some MAJOR wishcasting himself or riding the GFS train all the way to the station. His storms always seem to trend south though so I'm ok with this map. If we were in HM's sweet spot, it could be Groundhogzilla all over again. Hey burger....you are head's and shoulders better this year in your PBP! Keep up the good work! (Thanks again to the Jeremy's, Robert, Allan, Brandon and others as well!!!) Ciao, Greg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM looks hand in hand with 12z @51 at hr 54 it looks stronger than 12z about the same positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM is looking north of the 12z @63....scratch that looks like it's a tad slower. Flipping between maps plays with my eyes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ILM sticking with the GFS, interesting to see such variation with neighboring offices, dont they collaberate in large potentially widespread events like this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ILM sticking with the GFS, interesting to see such variation with neighboring offices, dont they collaberate in large potentially widespread events like this?? Well, they probably will collaberate once it gets closer, but we're still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM is looking north of the 12z @63....scratch that looks like it's a tad slower. Flipping between maps plays with my eyes sometimes. Was about to say, looks like the thing might go further South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not liking the look at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ILM sticking with the GFS, interesting to see such variation with neighboring offices, dont they collaberate in large potentially widespread events like this?? Why? The HPC completely discounts it and is going with a blend of the Euro and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM looks more like the GFS at 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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