Christmas Storm III

[tarheelwx]

Mysteriously believes the Euro now huh?

Nothing more than interpreting the model I'd say. Just like tons of posts I've seen here.

TW

[Shawn]

The Euro ensembles will be important.

[RaleighWx]

Ok still dont know what happened to my first discussion but here is an afternoon update with some commentary on the 12z models.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/threat-for-a-christmas-snowstorm-grows-for-the-southeast

[RevDodd]

i believe these are the updated maps for this afternoon.

Casey, am I correct that the expectation is the low curves off shore, rather than taking more of a direct line from N.O. to Hatteras?

[FoothillsNC]

i had to find a computer to check in. This spyware, adware infested machine at the senior center barely works and I can't view any images, just text. ANyway, great to see how things evolved right after I left. Sounds like what I was thinking, this expoding just in time. I haven't seen any panels other than the 108 I think, so I can't wait to get home to digest this. I'm with the crowd that urges caution, but the inner weenie can't help think how nice it would be to see it play out like this. If the phasing is a few hours later, we may be looking at practically nothing, so nothing is still certain. It never really is even hours up to an event here, as I've seen many times before.

[RaleighWx]

i believe these are the updated maps for this afternoon.

Day 4 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=4&fcolor=wbg -- 1012 mb near NO

Day 5 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=5&fcolor=wbg -- 992 mb off Cape Hatteras

Day 6 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=6&fcolor=wbg -- low 970s 50 miles or so west of 40/70 BM

HPC favors EUro track just a bit quicker and maybe not as intense.

[FLO]

Ok still dont know what happened to my first discussion but here is an afternoon update with some commentary on the 12z models.

http://www.examiner....r-the-southeast

Love the articles but wish you'd throw SC in the discussion.

[BIG FROSTY]

Ok still dont know what happened to my first discussion but here is an afternoon update with some commentary on the 12z models.

http://www.examiner....r-the-southeast

Great read as always Alan And I like the looks of the map too !

[BIG FROSTY]

i had to find a computer to check in. This spyware, adware infested machine at the senior center barely works and I can't view any images, just text. ANyway, great to see how things evolved right after I left. Sounds like what I was thinking, this expoding just in time. I haven't seen any panels other than the 108 I think, so I can't wait to get home to digest this. I'm with the crowd that urges caution, but the inner weenie can't help think how nice it would be to see it play out like this. If the phasing is a few hours later, we may be looking at practically nothing, so nothing is still certain. It never really is even hours up to an event here, as I've seen many times before.

We gonna have to get you a lap top for Christmas, So you can post on the move.

[RaleighWx]

Love the articles but wish you'd throw SC in the discussion.

I did mention SC. When the time comes that I issue a map and discuss the map I will talk about all areas affected in the SE including SC.

[burgertime]

Love the articles but wish you'd throw SC in the discussion.

It's weather in Raleigh not weather in the southeast. He really only has to discuss RDU.

[BNAwx]

Ok still dont know what happened to my first discussion but here is an afternoon update with some commentary on the 12z models.

http://www.examiner....r-the-southeast

Enjoyed the discussion. I think a lot of folks in the SE would be happy with a "middle of the road" outcome.

[CaryWx]

The models are pretty much in agreemnt for the first 48hrs or so though, right? (Storm into NM/Texas) Including the GFS?

[georgiawx11]

Enjoyed the discussion. I think a lot of folks in the SE would be happy with a "middle of the road" outcome.

As long as I see a dusting of snow on Christmas I'll be happy. You just have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Can't get your hopes up too high, even though that's easier said than done.

[Brick Tamland]

Ok still dont know what happened to my first discussion but here is an afternoon update with some commentary on the 12z models.

http://www.examiner....r-the-southeast

Looks like the potential for a white Chriustmas here is looking more and more likely. The question is just how much snow will we get.

[Pilotwx]

Look for the orographic lift to kick in, with this low moving like it is. Big FROSTY is going to have a lot of powder to play in, if it verifies!

Thanks !

Yea, Maybe some good ratios, but would like to see just a touch quicker phase

[chapelhillwx]

Exactly.. My friend out east of L.A. Tweeted saying that there was defintely a hurricane going on in California this morning. Something funny is going on with the weather this winter. Has anyone seen the reports out of Europe crippling snows and extreme cold in rare places like spain, ireland. I think it may be tied up with the Volcano up in Greenland some months back. Atmosphere is just off in general.?

Possibly. The news is a little misleading sometimes. An article about the paralyzed London airport said they got 4-5 inches. Not actually that bad. They just failed to clean it up.

Back on topic: Thanks for the discussion, Allan! Glad it worked this time around.

[Itunis]

So it looks like the UKMET and Euro are showing a nice snow for the ATL/N GA area, while the GGEM is less impressive and the GFS is...well, the GFS. If nothing else I'm impressed by the consistency of the models, specifically the Euro and the GFS. For every awesome run of the Euro, there has been an equally crappy run of the GFS over the past several days.

Until the GFS is honking I'm still not crazy about this threat. It may be wrong, but people often get the idea that it's a horrible model when it verifies only slightly less accurately as the Euro.

Oh yeah, and $5 says FFC doesn't mention anything other than wraparound snow for GA

[Hugo]

So it looks like the UKMET and Euro are showing a nice snow for the ATL/N GA area, while the GGEM is less impressive and the GFS is...well, the GFS. If nothing else I'm impressed by the consistency of the models, specifically the Euro and the GFS. For every awesome run of the Euro, there has been an equally crappy run of the GFS over the past several days.

Until the GFS is honking I'm still not crazy about this threat. It may be wrong, but people often get the idea that it's a horrible model when it verifies only slightly less accurately as the Euro.

Oh yeah, and $5 says FFC doesn't mention anything other than wraparound snow for GA

Don't feel bad. ILM likely won't even mention the possibility of anything. Mild temps and rain.

[ams30721us]

So it looks like the UKMET and Euro are showing a nice snow for the ATL/N GA area, while the GGEM is less impressive and the GFS is...well, the GFS. If nothing else I'm impressed by the consistency of the models, specifically the Euro and the GFS. For every awesome run of the Euro, there has been an equally crappy run of the GFS over the past several days.

Until the GFS is honking I'm still not crazy about this threat. It may be wrong, but people often get the idea that it's a horrible model when it verifies only slightly less accurately as the Euro.

Oh yeah, and $5 says FFC doesn't mention anything other than wraparound snow for GA

I mean are you honestly even looking at all into the GFS like its 500MB maps are is crazy off solution? Seems not. To even try and say that the GFS did not make big strides south like ALL THE OTHER globals to a point to see its obviously out to lunch is interesting. I really dont understand the comparison to that of the consistent Euro in showing a major hit for the Southeast for atleast 4 runs now..

[dsaur]

The Euro....OMG- perfect phase, a big one for a lot of us including ATL MUST NOT BELIEVE MUST NOT BELIEVE TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

Please, Cheez, you are scaring me. Until the Gfs joins in, it is a mute point, right? Or does continuity in the Doc, superceed all else? I just can't get on board unless the gfs brings it's low down to the gulf...at least I keep telling myself that..without much success. T

[georgiasnow]

Don't feel bad. ILM likely won't even mention the possibility of anything. Mild temps and rain.

So, when do we see the GFS join the "fantasy" world?? The Euro is the good dream, and the GFS is the nightmare!! Looks like we're going to have to get the energy on the west coast before it can figure this out.............

[tnweathernut]

Ok, i am going to go ahead and say it for our TN bretheren and sisters (if there are any). We need this to phase a little sooner than depicted on the Euro, otherwise we are going to be looking at flurries while south and east of here you are plastered. This has been on my mind since last nights UKIE went way south. I think that's the bigger threat (for our area anyway).

Time will tell.

[Hugo]

So, when do we see the GFS join the "fantasy" world?? The Euro is the good dream, and the GFS is the nightmare!! Looks like we're going to have to get the energy on the west coast before it can figure this out.............

Everyone is forgetting the possibility that the Euro could join the GFS, not the other way around.

[bingcrosbyb]

I can pretty much guarantee you FFC will continue to be very conservative. Knowing them, even on Friday they will be saying some light wraparound snow, then the next day we end up with several inches of snow. They really get on my nerves sometimes.

Well, I'm afraid that those looking to "snow forecasts" from NWS in southern cities will be dissapointed. We all know that most lean on the free American model GFS. Until it comes around, don't expect much with the "S" word from your local office.

[BullCityWx]

Where the fook is Jeremy at?

Hey, some of us have to work around here.

That's a textbook crippling storm. Youd better bet that we'd do better than 10:1 ratios too.

[burgertime]

Everyone is forgetting the possibility that the Euro could join the GFS, not the other way around.

Yep, and we won't really know until about 24 hours before hand or even less if one or the other is correct about the phasing. 00z tomorrow night will tell the tale.

[lilj4425]

Well, I'm afraid that those looking to "snow forecasts" from NWS in southern cities will be dissapointed. We all know that most lean on the free American model GFS. Until it comes around, don't expect much with the "S" word from your local office.

GSP-NOAA's forecast for Greenville, SC:

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[keithinala]

Everyone is forgetting the possibility that the Euro could join the GFS, not the other way around.

Not likely. The HPC is going with completely the Euro and Euro Ensembles for good reason.

[burgertime]

Not likely. The HPC is going with completely the Euro and Euro Ensembles for good reason.

Don't be so sure, the storm hasn't even entered the US yet. The fact is Euro looks great but we won't know until right before the event. That is what makes the thrill of the chase, the highs are really high and the lows are really low.