Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 All this sounds too good to be true, but you can't discount the consistency of the runs. I wish we could just get through the next 48 hours and have the scenario still showing on the models like they are now. If so, I might have to sound the Informer alarm to my family and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Folks should also keep in mind that this is probably the best case scenerio so it's highly likely future runs of the euro will back off of this somewhat. If and when it does, folks shouldn't go all crazy and depressed. We really can only go down from here but that's not something to worry about necessarily. btw, I love that deformation axis across Ga/the carolinas. Would be some impressive snows for sure, possibly more than indicated in spots. Yep the thing to take away from this is that the Euro is latched on and it appears the GFS is probably out to lunch. I think all of us would take a solution like this but not as strong which to be honest would probably be the closer to the best case scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Holy crap, just saw the precip map from the euro. Looks like it would be between 0.75 and 1.00 here. I'll take it lol. Roughly along and east of augusta to greensboro is 1 inch plus. The 0.50 goes from atlanta to the Tn/nc border/extreme northeast TN. That would top the 8-9 inches we got in Aiken last Feb. Please verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What does it show along the I-20 corridor from Atlanta to Birmingham ? Roughly 0.25 with close to 0.50 amounts on the georgia side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can someone with maps give us a timeframe for each state/region. I'd like to know if this is coming in at night or during the day. I'm pulling for you guys in the east. Its going to be hard watching yall get dumped on while Im too far west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Folks should also keep in mind that this is probably the best case scenerio so it's highly likely future runs of the euro will back off of this somewhat. If and when it does, folks shouldn't go all crazy and depressed. We really can only go down from here but that's not something to worry about necessarily. btw, I love that deformation axis across Ga/the carolinas. Would be some impressive snows for sure, possibly more than indicated in spots. definitely. not to mention i don't think there's ever been a KU storm in a strong or moderate la-nina. so this would be a rare event. once in a couple decade type storm. that in and of itself, makes the euro solution unlikely in a probability sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This should be put in textbooks as an example of phasing. I really doubt this extreme of a scenario winds up occurring, but it certainly keeps the snow idea very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What does it show along the I-20 corridor from Atlanta to Birmingham ? 3-6 inches as a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif HPC precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Folks should also keep in mind that this is probably the best case scenerio so it's highly likely future runs of the euro will back off of this somewhat. If and when it does, folks shouldn't go all crazy and depressed. We really can only go down from here but that's not something to worry about necessarily. btw, I love that deformation axis across Ga/the carolinas. Would be some impressive snows for sure, possibly more than indicated in spots. i wont deny that the weenie inside is about to pop lol, but i am trying to temper is in that extreme solutions just dont end up verifying most of the time. the consistency is sort of weird, but hard to ignore. of course i would take an inch or two on christmas and be happy. definitely. not to mention i don't think there's ever been a KU storm in a strong or moderate la-nina. so this would be a rare event. once in a couple decade type storm. that in and of itself, makes the euro solution unlikely in a probability sense. well said - this storm would sort of being going against climatology and statistics. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif HPC precip. gotta love that extra little enhanced blob in ne ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 For parts of the Piedmont of NC, this shows 24 hours of snow....late Christmas afternoon until around 0z Sunday. how far east in NC would the snow get on Christmas under this solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The other thing to remember is it's mother nature. Doesn't matter how good a computer is, mom will always find a way to throw a monkey wrench in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Canadian's 967 mb LP is odd; highly unlikely to happen. The Euro is a dream. All in all, good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.hpc.ncep....48iwbg_fill.gif HPC precip. That was issued early this morning. I"m sure big adjustments will follow over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If I were in north Georgia, even to east Central Ga and a lot of western SC and eastern NC, I'd feel pretty good right now. With the UKIE way down there and the Euro bomb depicted, this could be a once in a lifetime snow for someone in those areas. Unfortunately, I think it's looking less likely today that areas like Tennessee and parts of western NC see a heavy snowfall. The Euro still gives .5 all the way back to extreme northeast Tennessee, but this has to be b/c of a perfect phase. One more jog to the east, and these areas would see pretty light snows, save for the upslope areas, with a bombing low heading up the coast. Overall, it appears we are still trending further south and east with this. (ala Euro and Ukie) I guess the questions are, where does that stop, when does the GFS jump on board, when does it phase, and is there a last minute jog back to the north in the final 48 hours. A LOT of questions remain at this point. Good luck all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 definitely. not to mention i don't think there's ever been a KU storm in a strong or moderate la-nina. so this would be a rare event. once in a couple decade type storm. that in and of itself, makes the euro solution unlikely in a probability sense. Well this winter has definitely started out different. Let us take a look at the epic situation happening in Southern California right now. moderate to strong la-nina's hardly ever feature drenching rains and mountain snows like what is going on out there right now. LAX has reported close to 6" of rain in the last 4 days, some locales in the mountains have reported 10-12 feet of snow!!! I saw some staggering reports in the PNS coming from out there. With many other players factored in right now, all bets are off in this being just another typical La Nina thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 how far east in NC would the snow get on Christmas under this solution? Looks like it would be getting to Central NC 18z - 00z...wouldn't put any stock into that though since the QPF is extremely light. Timing won't come into play until about 30 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The other thing to remember is it's mother nature. Doesn't matter how good a computer is, mom will always find a way to throw a monkey wrench in. Wholeheartedly agree with you Burger. I mean, computers didn't just spontaneously appeared. We did create them, after all, so like always, they are bound to make mistakes somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The other thing to remember is it's mother nature. Doesn't matter how good a computer is, mom will always find a way to throw a monkey wrench in. Yeah, I think a lot of people get caught up in the excitement and forget that the models are simply trying to predict something that is already set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 posted in the 12z thread. snow arrival times for those who asked these are around times ATL sat late am wint. salem raleigh sat eve.m ric roa lyh rocky mount christmas night late pm DC to del late am sunday' nyc phily aft sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Folks should also keep in mind that this is probably the best case scenerio so it's highly likely future runs of the euro will back off of this somewhat. If and when it does, folks shouldn't go all crazy and depressed. We really can only go down from here but that's not something to worry about necessarily. btw, I love that deformation axis across Ga/the carolinas. Would be some impressive snows for sure, possibly more than indicated in spots. That's what I told myself after the 0z run 12/20 and 12z 12/20 and 0z 12/21 and now 12 12/21. Yet each run seems better than the one before. Please, nobody pinch me because if this is a dream I don't want to wake up. Pretty amazing consistency that does fit in with the models pick up the really big events early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You say it looks less likely that TN will see a heavy snowfall, yet you say North GA looks like it may. What about areas near the GA/TN border such as Chattanooga ? 3-4 inches per euro at chattanooga, maybe 4-5 at Atlanta, just from raw date per accuweather pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Next up the afternoon WFO discos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 JB's 2pm Headlines--- TUESDAY 2 PM EURO GOES ROIDIAN It is like it is from another planet.. a bit slower meaning the white Christmas is still south of the big Northeast cities, but then its 965 mb low just east of ACY by Monday morning would have meant everything gets shut down Sunday into Monday anyway..timing more like 1969 event. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You say it looks less likely that TN will see a heavy snowfall, yet you say North GA looks like it may. What about areas near the GA/TN border such as Chattanooga ? Please keep in mind this is one model run and its solution. This is not a final solution by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Next up the afternoon WFO discos. yeah gsp was really bullish this morning and siding with the euro cmc idea i wonder what they will say now lol it was kinda odd to see the them that bullish 4-5 days out we will see i guess. when does HPC update there disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 JB's 2pm Headlines--- TUESDAY 2 PM EURO GOES ROIDIAN It is like it is from another planet.. a bit slower meaning the white Christmas is still south of the big Northeast cities, but then its 965 mb low just east of ACY by Monday morning would have meant everything gets shut down Sunday into Monday anyway..timing more like 1969 event. WOW! Mysteriously believes the Euro now huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 <br />If I were in north Georgia, even to east Central Ga and a lot of western SC and eastern NC, I'd feel pretty good right now. With the UKIE way down there and the Euro bomb depicted, this could be a once in a lifetime snow for someone in those areas. <br /><br />Unfortunately, I think it's looking less likely today that areas like Tennessee and parts of western NC see a heavy snowfall. The Euro still gives .5 all the way back to extreme northeast Tennessee, but this has to be b/c of a perfect phase. One more jog to the east, and these areas would see pretty light snows, save for the upslope areas, with a bombing low heading up the coast.<br /><br />Overall, it appears we are still trending further south and east with this. (ala Euro and Ukie) I guess the questions are, where does that stop, when does the GFS jump on board, when does it phase, and is there a last minute jog back to the north in the final 48 hours. A LOT of questions remain at this point. Good luck all.<br /><br /><br /><br />You have to remember there is a good chance this think will trend a little north as we get closer, they usually do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 i believe these are the updated maps for this afternoon. Day 4 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=4&fcolor=wbg -- 1012 mb near NO Day 5 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=5&fcolor=wbg -- 992 mb off Cape Hatteras Day 6 -- http://www.hpc.ncep....ay=6&fcolor=wbg -- low 970s 50 miles or so west of 40/70 BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Mysteriously believes the Euro now huh? yeah, but says phase will be off hatteras and to late for the SE essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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