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Christmas Storm III


Cold Rain

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Total QPF runs around 1 inch for most of the upstate of SC, and the foothills NC. Charlotte and points east are in the 1.25in total. Looks like Raleigh gets around 1.5in with a 1.75 bullseye in the northeastern coastal plain of NC. Areas of western upstate of SC get 0.75 - 1 inch and northeast GA gets 0.5 - 0.75 in. Needless to say over half this board just soiled themselves.drunk.gif

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If this is the case, then we have continuity over the past 4 runs. Like I mentioned earlier, +/- a couple hours could be huge, and for a model to resolve that at this stage, is highly unlikely. Still swimming in the dead zone for another 48 hrs, but the confidence continuity and ens mean agreement bring is sig.

i was thinking something good might be showing up when i saw the third thread start filling up :lol:

the continuity has certainly gotten my attention as well. i remember many times the storm will show up for a couple of runs and disappear. this time its been showing up each time, with similar outcomes. i am still anxious until data get put in tomorrow night, but someone in the se might be celebrating a white christmas.

side note - its 39 with light rain and fog and it feels even colder after yesterdays nice temps in the 50s

Is the start of the snow in NC being pushed back later to the 26th or is it still looking like Christmas day?

it would be nice to have a white christmas, but for heaven's sake, i would take this kind of snow for so many of us in a heartbeat, no matter what day it falls on

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Total QPF runs around 1 inch for most of the upstate of SC, and the foothills NC. Charlotte and points east are in the 1.25in total. Looks like Raleigh gets around 1.5in with a 1.75 bullseye in the northeastern coastal plain of NC. Areas of western upstate of SC get 0.75 - 1 inch and northeast GA gets 0.5 - 0.75 in. Needless to say over half this board just soiled themselves.drunk.gif

Even with consistency, we're still looking at 120 hours. Gotta keep that in mind.

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If this verifies, its 3-6" for ATL, more to the NE of here, I will not get that excited yet, this is a big switch again, but the trend is certainly there for something good.

Yeah it's hard not to get excited about this...especially since it's the euro. If it wasn't showing a storm and it was the gfs, I would be much less optimistic.

If it verifies, think about how awesome the last year or so has been for snow in georgia. I had over 12 inches last winter and to have another 6 with this one would be incredible. The likelyhood of getting that much snow in 2 years here is extremely low indeed.

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You gotta wonder if the Euro bombs this we could get some pretty impressive wrap around snow, maybe even for Pensacola. '93 storm bombed perfectly to give P'cola impressive snow. :arrowhead:

Here's the 120hr...it could, you're right. Just need the 850 line to work out. I was going to answer your post a few pages back but it got lost in the storm!

f120.gif

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HKY, What I seen on QPF is hky .86, mwk (me) ..61, int 1.06 is this correct ? nw NC is on the lower end of the good precip.

ratios would be good in this situation, so i would expect lower qpf totals further to the NW. the extreme nature of what the euro is printing out is something to behold so I would use caution on qpf. i mean we're talking 93 and 96 levels if the euro is right. biggest phase in two decades type deal.

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Correct me if i'm wrong or banish me but with this type of phase wouldn't you see a greater moisture plume spreading into northwest and east georgia and nw sc a little earlier than what's shown on the Euro? With all that energy seems to me the air out in front would be saturating rapidly.

Thoughts?

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ratios would be good in this situation, so i would expect lower qpf totals further to the NW. the extreme nature of what the euro is printing out is something to behold so I would use caution on qpf. i mean we're talking 93 and 96 levels if the euro is right. biggest phase in two decades type deal.

Thanks !

Yea, Maybe some good ratios, but would like to see just a touch quicker phase :thumbsup:

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Holy crap, just saw the precip map from the euro. Looks like it would be between 0.75 and 1.00 here. I'll take it lol. Roughly along and east of augusta to greensboro is 1 inch plus. The 0.50 goes from atlanta to the Tn/nc border/extreme northeast TN.

What does it show along the I-20 corridor from Atlanta to Birmingham ?

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ratios would be good in this situation, so i would expect lower qpf totals further to the NW. the extreme nature of what the euro is printing out is something to behold so I would use caution on qpf. i mean we're talking 93 and 96 levels if the euro is right. biggest phase in two decades type deal.

Folks should also keep in mind that this is probably the best case scenerio so it's highly likely future runs of the euro will back off of this somewhat. If and when it does, folks shouldn't go all crazy and depressed. We really can only go down from here but that's not something to worry about necessarily.

btw, I love that deformation axis across Ga/the carolinas. Would be some impressive snows for sure, possibly more than indicated in spots.

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