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Christmas Storm III

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

wow...gfs doesnt even phase the northern precip at hr 90

As sad as this run looks... this is still a step in the right direction for continuity with the other models. Its keeping the s/w separate like most of the other models are doing. The problem is that the phase occurs too late to be any good. Actually this track looks similar to the UKMET... which is why I am still worried about the suppressed solution at this point.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

6z GFS is wide right. It literally doesn't even snow here at all. Nada.

Gotta love when one model is giving you 1.38" of QPF and another model is giving you 0.00" QPF for the same storm. arrowheadsmiley.png

Anyways, I'm off to bed. The GFS continues to give me an uneasy feeling about this whole deal, but the Euro keeps on tracking on with its consistently snowy solution.

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

Yep, this run is very suppressed. Getting a bad feeling- will the Euro fail spectacularly?

I certainly hope not. With HPC going against the GFS and the model flip flopping more than a fish out of water, I personally can't trust it at this time. Euro has remained overall consistent and has other major model support. We can put a man on the moon but can't seem to develop a weather model worth anything. GooFuS strikes again.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

When FFC gets on the boat... you'd better get on with them!

359 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

FRIDAY...AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY SPREADING A WINTRY MIX

ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

AT THIS TIME ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER

THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS

DAY...MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY

MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE STATE BEGINNING LATE

FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IF

THIS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR

IN PLACE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND

SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA AND GAINESVILLE ON CHRISTMAS

DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH

GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH

ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS GEORGIA...OR THE

SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST TO THE LATEST FORECAST

ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Nashville AFD, 4:01am

UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE NW FRI NGT ALLOWING COLDER AIR ALOFT TO PENETRATE THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW.SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRI NGT. WITH COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA AT ALL LEVELS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN BUT BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SNOW IN THE PLATEAU. FLURRIES SUN NGT BEFORE ENDING. GFS IS PREDICTING 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE AREA BY LATE SUN.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Here's the criteria for Atlanta:

They could issue this first

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK - Issued 3-7 days before an event for a 30% or greater chance of a hazardous winter weather event that may require a watch/warning in a later forecast. Issued via the Hazardous Weather Outlook (ATLHWOFFC) or Special Weather Statement (ATLSPSFFC).

Or wait for this

WINTER STORM WATCH - Issued 12-48 hours in advance of an event for a 50% or greater chance of conditions favorable for a significant winter storm (including heavy sleet, heavy snow, or ice storm). Winter storm conditions include 2 or more inches of snow in 12 hours (3 or more inches in northeast Georgia) or 4 or more inches in 24 hours, 1/2 inch or more of sleet, or 1/4 inch or more of freezing rain. Issued as ATLWSWFFC.

then thisW

WINTER STORM WARNING - Issued up to 36 hours before an event for an 80% or greater chance of a winter weather event that meets at least one of these criteria: 2 or more inches of snow in 12 hours (3 inches in northeast Georgia) or 4 or more inches of snow in 24 hours, 1/2 inch or more of sleet, or 1/4 inch or more of freezing rain. Issued as ATLWSWFFC.

These do vary according to where you live, but this is what it takes here. I have most all the watch/warning/advisory criteria here: http://www.daculawea...er_criteria.php

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

Ok at 108, coastal SC goes to rain and southest NC. then at 114, all SC is back to snow and coastal NC is probably rain or sleet, even edging into areas east of Raleigh on this run, but RDU looks to stay all solid snow probably toward Rocky MT will mix or go over due to strong inflow from Atlantic. The QPF, don't sweat it. Actaully western NC SC and most of GA would be hit hard with snow from the veery begginning I think due to the low going negative just at the right time, which keeps an axis of moderate to hevy snow going from central GA to possibly eastern ATL suburbs right up 85 to the foothills due to the lee trough. I've seen this before, the lee trough or Savannah river trough will be there, you can see it on countless surface maps of storms like this , which enhances snow and allows a deformation zone to die out in the western halves of the Carolinas almost eveyr time to be the very last to lose precip. Saw h this last February as well.

So long as this run is correct, the qpf will go up for ATL and points north and eastweard I think. Obviously the strong surface low will have incredible wind swept snow on its west side, so Raleigh could be looking at a repeat of Jan 2000. LIke I said, I thought this could be a great run with an extreme outcome due to the severe anomalous conditions we have going on.

Even with all the epic runs this one sentence really stings me the most. Hard to get excited when the inevitable warm nose is going to be an issue for us in downeast areas of NC. All I can do is hope for a little further shift offshore but with a low that strong its going to be a stressful next few days for me!

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

I will be excited to see our part of the storm in the 72 hour range. Right now almost all of the major models are in agreement up til that point before they diverge. I'm not buying the 6z gfs but it does remind me of storms of years past where storms were progged to go to Cuba and in reality went NORTH of us. Obviously we had to be in the sweet spot at some point between those two scenarios. I'm anxiously waiting on the time of the phase. Good day and good modelling everyone!

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Props to Larry for throwing out some amounts for N GA for us weenies. With all the excitement about the huge amounts shown in NC/SC by the Euro I was beginning to think we were left in the lurch...lol.

6Z GFS looks pretty crappy...but it does have .1-.25" QPF in much of GA up to ATL. Looks like Savannah and Charleston would fair better than us though as it's showing, lol.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

SE'ers. If you have the urge to type something that is not related to forecasts, models or observations for this upcoming storm threat, please post the comments in the banter thread.

comments like these will be deleted (as we cannot move them)

Great post!

How much for SwampQuarter, SC?

What time are models going to show me snow?

DT and my local met are onboard.

GFS, euro et al always wrong

GooFuS.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

I'll also say this...if the euro holds this solution for the 3rd run in a row...I couldnt give 2 pails of monkey piss what the other models say. It'll be time to put your complete faith in it(if it already isnt).

The 0Z run was the 5th run in a row showing a remarkably similar solution. BMX has caved and is now going more with the Euro, and FFC at least admitted that the GFS gave some ground to it and highlighting the potential for snowfall.

I did see Cheeznado's post on how the Euro ensembles are different from the OP run however. I remember reading that the ensembles are good at showing the start of a trend, as some of the members pick up on it faster than the OP run. It's concerning, but Foothills is still gung ho (granted he's in a better location than Cheez and I).

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

funny local tv mets still thinking rain changing to snow. DEPENDS ON TRACK IF IT ACCUMULATES. Man they are so funny sometimes, being afraid to say what they are thinking

Yeah, precip type is about the last thing you guys need to worry about. Looks like for much of NC it's a question of a nice snow vs. a huge snow.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Early morning thoughts (here comes a poker analogy carried to the extreme):

Well, I don't necessarily know why disturbances track like they do, but what I can do is step back and evaluate trends within models and between models.

And this morning, that evaluation leads to me say this: We are watching an incredible game of high-stakes poker right now.

It's easy to talk about King Euro and the "Goofus" and all that, but it is extremely disconcerting to me that -- right now, at least, at 7 a.m. on Dec. 22 -- the European solution has pretty much ZERO support from other models, when it comes to the final solution. It's almost like we're on a gutshot straight draw with the Euro with most of our chip stack at risk. Not a good situation to be in.

The 6z GFS run was very concerning to me -- we desperately, imo, need SOME other model (and no, the DGEX doesn't count) to at least trend back toward the Euro and away from these super-suppressed solutions. Otherwise, we're putting our entire bankroll at risk and, even though the Euro is the best around, we're one bad card away from disaster.

But oh my, if the Euro hits that gutshot draw, it's "all-in" baby and we'll know we've got the nuts!!!!!!!

Great disco (so far) folks. Going to catch up on the 15 pages.

Vacation has started here!!!

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