POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Tell her the euro said Merry Christmas !!! Just to hard to believe almost scary! I can't believe you still up! Grimes better be sitting down to read this. Oh well lets see what JB has to say now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Alright I'm heading to bed.. Its been a crazy past hour and a half! Hopefully we trend snowier (Is that even possible?) tomorrow! Bed? How in the world are you able to sleep after that Euro run with the HPC siding with it? I feel like I just had a Four Loko or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Check out this particular link, Storms.... http://www1.ncdc.noa...EDSNCC2free.pdf Great reading material there. Glad you provided the link for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow I am impressed with FFC EARLY FCST DISCUSSION! haha AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 219 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH ON THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE H5 RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE ISOLATE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST. AFTER FROPA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND A BIT BREEZY. THE COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT. THURSDAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY...BUT AFTER THURSDAY THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEW GFS FALLING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF CHRISTMAS DAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALBEIT THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. IF THIS COMES TRUE...THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. EVEN WITH A FASTER GFS...THE PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY. BUT...IF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AT THIS POINT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX...KEEPING IN MIND THIS IS ENOUGH OF A QUESTION THAT WILL AFFECT TRAVEL SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AFTER THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A 1035 HIGH DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 To me, it seems the trend of the Euro is bombing the low earlier in the North central Gulf. I hope it continues! Although, I'm not sure I can do much better than that run of the Euro showing a couple inches in NW Florida! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow I am impressed with FFC EARLY FCST DISCUSSION! haha They really go out on a limb don't they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Only ONE person is allowed to make a new thread and that person is COLD RAIN!!! You are absolutely right ! What was I thinking??? After tonight, to suggest otherwise would be the quickest way to get .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC siding with ECMWF for preliminary forecast discussion ...SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 1...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: 00Z/22 ECMWFTHE NAM TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...WITH SLIGHTLYLESS AMPLITUDE BY THE TIME IT REACHES LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THEPERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BEGIN TO PULL AHEAD OF THE NAM ANDECMWF LATE DAY 3 ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING LESSAMPLITUDE LIKE THE NAM. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THESLOW...SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...A BIAS OF THE MODEL. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRENDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PASTSEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWFHAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THREE RUNS IN A ROW...AND WAS ALSO THEFIRST MODEL TO BREAK TOWARD A SLOWER...MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON IT. ATL_Militarypolice, I'll be in Lilburn with my family for Christmas. I actually grew up in Lilburn (off Cole Rd, near Parkview HS), but now live in St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This will be fun trying to figure out how to plow it all! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You are absolutely right ! What was I thinking??? After tonight, to suggest otherwise would be the quickest way to get .... We are not superstitious, we are all scientists here, to some extent or another...but we do know mojo when we see it, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We are not superstitious, we are all scientists here, to some extent or another...but we do know mojo when we see it, lol. T All started with the MONKEY, Big Frosty brought it back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 All started with the MONKEY, Big Frosty brought it back!!! Yeah, and that poor, wretched baby set the table, lol Looks like you have some good work out ahead. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this storm happens as forecast by the models, when will they post WINTER STORM WATCHES for the piedmont of N.C., I'm guessing Thursday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, and that poor, wretched baby set the table, lol Looks like you have some good work out ahead. T just have to wait and make sure it verifies. That would be a storm there is no way to stay on top of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If this storm happens as forecast by the models, when will they post WINTER STORM WATCHES for the piedmont of N.C., I'm guessing Thursday at the earliest. I would bet Friday evening. I think Thursday to early. Where you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 just have to wait and make sure it verifies. That would be a storm there is no way to stay on top of Yeah, I've gone full mojo, but my heart of hearts says wait until 0z Thursday. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, I've gone full mojo, but my heart of hearts says wait until 0z Thursday. T I really not excited yet, definitely interested but almost to good to be true so trying not to get hopes up only to be let down. Ordered another salt spreader for one of the trucks that I will install tomorrow but still little worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah me to!!!! I really not excited yet, definitely interested but almost to good to be true so trying not to get hopes up only to be let down. Ordered another salt spreader for one of the trucks that I will install tomorrow but still little worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would bet Friday evening. I think Thursday to early. Where you located? Rowan Co., just south of Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I see you on here Ray, hope you are sitting down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So I guess we are still in the game ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Rowan Co., just south of Salisbury. Just above you in Winston, very familiar where your at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So I guess we are still in the game ? That's an understatement if it verifies you are in two feet range and I get a ity bity foot! Glad we working by the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was just looking at past great Snowstorms in teh Southeast and this pressure tops them all from a very far south perspective. This is the inland version of March 1993 with the extreme phasing, so be careful using those qpf numbers, as they will be quite a bit higher in ATL GSP AVL and CLT regions. Easily those places are going to have an historic amount of snow if this verifies. Also, the snow gets going early in Georgia and all the old surface maps had a Savannah inverted trough going straight up through the western Carolinas to the Apps, which keeps an axis of heavy snow going, that the models have missed time and time again, so I'm confident that if this run of the 5H of Euro pans out, then the actual snow amount will be well over a foot in Athens, Greenville, Charlotte and closing in on 2 feet futher east in North Carolina and possibly South Carolina. The only question is how accurate is the ECMWF being with the phasing. Too bad we don't know that yet. It makes all the difference though. Also, blizzard conditions may extend well inland. The temps are going to be incredibly low. Its just loony how the Euro keeps getting more and more intense with the phasing. Basically though, my thoughts remain unchanged. As expected, the low has shifted ever so slightly further south (at least initially) so that the heaviest precipitation rates will be felt across eastern NC. Thats not to say areas in the western Carolinas can't get on the action, its simply too early to know for sure how powerful of a system we are dealing with. The degree of phasing is extreme since the euro is essentially dealing with three pieces of energy that will phase together... the timing literally has to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 looks like just a few of us on here, guess all passed out in unbelief! I see Robert still hanging around. Going have to go out to eat Robert after this. I won't have no work for weeks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That's an understatement if it verifies you are in two feet range and I get a ity bity foot! Glad we working by the hour I'm still down for a 10% cut, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I'm glad Gerry is on his way to Pa. and that other truck from Ct is leaving for Raleigh tomorow afternoon... That's an understatement if it verifies you are in two feet range and I get a ity bity foot! Glad we working by the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At the VERY Least a Steak Dinner and a good Drunk!!! I'm still down for a 10% cut, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm still down for a 10% cut, right? we can do that, you have a plow or skidsteer I will put you to work, I have been talking to contractors all evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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