Stormsfury Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just for anyone on the SC coast/Central SC/Savannah areas etc.. last time Storm got excited last Feb, it happened. Just sayin'. Storm's not here right now. The cats have had to pick him up off the floor. I'm just in complete awe of the 00z EURO run tonight. We'll just continue to monitor this, and all of us really need to try to stay grounded right now. Honestly, I wouldn't even know where to analog. March 1980 comes to mind, but aside from that, I really wouldn't know where to begin as least from a research standpoint but what the 00z EURO shows tonight is nothing short of truly epic and what a way to help with the drought conditions with a nice nice blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would say easily a foot ! Have you ever seen a storm this big that lasted 24 hrs. other than 2000 yuck! that we didn't get hammered? I think I just scared myself ! Maybe I should be concerned. NAH ! What's sup Pilot ? Good to hear from you I looked at qpf for our area and the euro is spitting out .78 don't know ratios but i'd say could be close to a foot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, ensembles are very important! Hopefully they at least show the strength of the 12z Euro's operational run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 this from baroclinic_instability (MET) on the Central forum: ECM looks real amped. I do know the early GFS solutions were not going to be right, and it is nice to see the GFS trending away from its funky solution. Still though, the ECM has to thread a needle here. There really is no sharp/intense leading S/W ejecting over the Gulf Stream to initiate what the ECM has...a coastline hugging mid-Atlantic nuclear bomb. It is a tough call here. Probability wise, 30% or so ECM verifies exactly as is, maybe another 30% CMC solution verifies crushing New England, 40% glancing blow. It does seem a strong coastal will develop though, whether it is a hit remains to be seen. If tomorrow shows another direct hit by the ECM, then the appropriate authorities along the EC may need to be contacted. If this trough had a sharp leading edge S/W ejecting over the Gulf Stream with the exact same setup, I would go much higher on the probability for a crushing EC blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Best model run ever for the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sry folks after reading 30 pages, this caught My eye holy crap.. sub 990mb over ILM at 114 All I'm asking @ what ratio's, or are WE looking at a 89 type of event? Our Local guy is NOW mentioning the "possibility" of SN for us, though everyone here in ILM has this thing tracking well north of us, (like Tenn)... Just Wondering.... And a additional fact about cloud cover keeping temps down intially... the next day or 2.... TIA CT current obs... 43.8 °FOvercast Windchill:44 °F Humidity:100% Dew Point:44 °F Wind:0.0 mph Wind:0.0 mph Wind Gust:0.0 mph Pressure:29.99 in (Falling) Local Long term forcast? Long term /Friday through Tuesday/... as of 3 PM Tuesday...main challenges include placement of the line between a wet Christmas and a white Christmas...and another round of unseasonably cold weather early next week. Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) not really in agreement on low tracks for Saturday. GFS brings a weak low overhead Saturday and spins it up off Hatteras Sat night. European model (ecmwf) is slower and farther south/offshore. At this point timing discrepancies lower my confidence enough to limit probability of precipitation to high chance. Will lean toward a GFS solution for now...which keeps it just warm enough for all rain...and lets the drying win The Race against cold air Sat night...so no changeover is forecast at this time. However...confidence is low and this forecast should be monitored closely over the coming days...as a shift toward the European model (ecmwf) track could put some of the ilm County Warning Area under the gun for wintry precipitation. Dry Arctic high builds in starting Sat night/sun...with temperatures well below normal for the first part of next week. Sunday and Monday it will be a struggle to crack 40...and lows each of those nights will dip close to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would say easily a foot ! Have you ever seen a storm this big that lasted 24 hrs. other than 2000 yuck! that we didn't get hammered? I think I just scared myself ! Maybe I should be concerned. NAH ! Just hope it holds, long ways to go till Saturday. I doubt it can have this good a run straight thru till storm time ? Bout bed time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sry folks after reading 30 pages, this caught My eye All I'm asking @ what ratio's, or are WE looking at a 89 type of event? Our Local guy is NOW mentioning the "possibility" of SN for us, though everyone here in ILM has this thing tracking well north of us, (like Tenn)... Just Wondering.... And a additional fact about cloud cover keeping temps down intially... the next day or 2.... TIA CT current obs... 43.8 °FOvercast Windchill:44 °F Humidity:100% Dew Point:44 °F Wind:0.0 mph Wind:0.0 mph Wind Gust:0.0 mph Pressure:29.99 in (Falling) You'll get wraparound snow.. and probably a significant amount of it if this is the case. This is well west of the 89 scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 "Dreams feel real while we're in them. It's only when we wake up that we realize something was actually strange." I am so glad you changed your avatar when you did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just got off the phone with Santa, Said he will probably be held up by TSA (strip search likely) on Christmas morning and won't be able to bring the 'presents' until Christmas night. Said he hopes everyone in the SE doesn't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That monkey is going to be playing a amped up version of Dreaming of a White Christmas, if the Euro verifies! Just hope it holds, long ways to go till Saturday. I doubt it can have this good a run straight thru till storm time ? Bout bed time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Storm's not here right now. The cats have had to pick him up off the floor. I'm just in complete awe of the 00z EURO run tonight. We'll just continue to monitor this, and all of us really need to try to stay grounded right now. Honestly, I wouldn't even know where to analog. March 1980 comes to mind, but aside from that, I really wouldn't know where to begin as least from a research standpoint but what the 00z EURO shows tonight is nothing short of truly epic and what a way to help with the drought conditions with a nice nice blanket of snow. Is the snowstorm that happened back in Feb. 1973 close to this? At least for SC anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 With such an incredible model run, and almost 1000 posts, who should start a new thread? Any thoughts WOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That monkey is going to be playing a amped up version of Dreaming of a White Christmas, if the Euro verifies! lol He's gonna play and play hard until it snow's I believe I see Powder-stroke checking in. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just got off the phone with Santa, Said he will probably be held up by TSA (strip search likely) on Christmas morning and won't be able to bring the 'presents' until Christmas night. Said he hopes everyone in the SE doesn't mind. As long as we get our snowstorm, we wont mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do not start a thread until Cold Rain gets on here even if this thing get to a trillion pages just wait LOL btw here is the reaction to the euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Storm's not here right now. The cats have had to pick him up off the floor. I'm just in complete awe of the 00z EURO run tonight. We'll just continue to monitor this, and all of us really need to try to stay grounded right now. Honestly, I wouldn't even know where to analog. March 1980 comes to mind, but aside from that, I really wouldn't know where to begin as least from a research standpoint but what the 00z EURO shows tonight is nothing short of truly epic and what a way to help with the drought conditions with a nice nice blanket of snow. The only thing I can think of that brought those kinds of numbers was Feb 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Where is Cold Rain at? His mojo so far as been truly special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just hope it holds, long ways to go till Saturday. I doubt it can have this good a run straight thru till storm time ? Bout bed time. lol baby just woke me up so I came to look, wow I think i'm dreaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 <br />With such an incredible model run, and almost 1000 posts, who should start a new thread?<br /><br /> Any thoughts WOW?<br /><br /><br /><br />COLD RAIN without a doubt!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 baby just woke me up so I came to look, wow I think i'm dreaming Tell her the euro said Merry Christmas !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 do not start a thread until Cold Rain gets on here even if this thing get to a trillion pages just wait LOL Last July we didn't make 1000 posts the whole month. Today we are about to go over 1000 in under 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 With such an incredible model run, and almost 1000 posts, who should start a new thread? Any thoughts WOW? Back away from the thread. No one touches it but ColdRain. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is the snowstorm that happened back in Feb. 1973 close to this? At least for SC anyways. The setup was a lot different than this. That's Feb 11 1973 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=namer≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1973&mm=02&dd=11&hh=00&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 OMFG DUDE, I HAVE TO GO AND CHANGE MY SHORTS! I really have to tell myself the chances of TWO MAJOR SNOWSTORMS in the same calendar (in back to back winters) in this region is so remote, I can't even fathom just how consistent the EURO continues to hold course. I really hope I can find some time to study this but unlikely I'll find too many matches for this scenario. Check out this particular link, Storms.... http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/papers/NOAATECHEDSNCC2free.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The setup was a lot different than this. That's Feb 11 1973 http://vortex.plymou...yy=&mm=&dd=&hh= About time for the AFDs to start rolling in. Should be interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC siding with ECMWF for preliminary forecast discussion ...SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 1...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: 00Z/22 ECMWFTHE NAM TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...WITH SLIGHTLYLESS AMPLITUDE BY THE TIME IT REACHES LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THEPERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BEGIN TO PULL AHEAD OF THE NAM ANDECMWF LATE DAY 3 ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING LESSAMPLITUDE LIKE THE NAM. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THESLOW...SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...A BIAS OF THE MODEL. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRENDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PASTSEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWFHAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THREE RUNS IN A ROW...AND WAS ALSO THEFIRST MODEL TO BREAK TOWARD A SLOWER...MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 With such an incredible model run, and almost 1000 posts, who should start a new thread? Any thoughts WOW? Only ONE person is allowed to make a new thread and that person is COLD RAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A Pennsylvania meteorologist on Accuweather Board says this this morning: "Roughly follow I95 through NC. Everything West is all snow (with right along I95 having some precip issues) and East is heavy rain to heavy snow. 2" worth. The state is just decimated. If this run would verify...I'm not positive of top NC snow storms but I imagine this would make the top 2. Just an historic Southern Mid Atlantic storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Alright I'm heading to bed.. Its been a crazy past hour and a half! Hopefully we trend snowier (Is that even possible?) tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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