Christmas Storm III

[BullCityWx]

Think we will have the wind to meet the criteria?

That's the question but there is an almost sub 980 low right off hatteras....so i guess it's possible.

[BullCityWx]

KCHS, depending on when they change over, could get as much as .75 of backlash snow. CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA!

[HKY18]

one thing to remember as well this is 5 straight run with a snowstorm across the east coast. and 2 being HISTORIC so imo the chances are increasing for something significant across the southeast i would expect the gfs to continue trending toward the euro tomorrow. this is all most like a dream!

[superjames1992]

Some 4-panels:

I can't help but notice the screwzone near Robert's house in southwestern NC and northwestern SC.

That's the question but there is an almost sub 980 low right off hatteras....so i guess it's possible.

When was the last time there was a legitimate blizzard in the North Carolina lowlands? I can't recall one in my lifetime.

[BullCityWx]

Florence, SC: 1.94" ALL SNOW

[DLI4SCwx]

OMFG DUDE. IF THAT VERIFIES, KCAE GETS 12"-20" of SNOW!

Holy S***!!!! Columbia would be crippled! I don't think i've ever seen that much snow here. In Feb., we got like 9" here and I thought that was a once in a century kinda event. You look to do well too man.

[TheVille]

Florence, SC: 1.94" ALL SNOW

Could you kindly give me the Ratios and QPF for statesville or areas surrounding

[Carvers Gap]

Have no fear, TN brethren.

The position of the ULL means that the west side of the Apps very well may be hammered, too. Also, given the cold air in place and lesser WAA thanks to the general eastern location of the low, ratios will be very high.

Blue Ridge! Glad to have your input. Welcome to the midnight run - my third straight. Course, you may have been here all along. Keep posting.

[BullCityWx]

Could you kindly give me the Ratios and QPF for statesville or areas surrounding

1.13"...little less than clt.

[jrips27]

I seriously might have to take a trip somewhere if the Euro verifies!

[FoothillsNC]

I was just looking at past great Snowstorms in teh Southeast and this pressure tops them all from a very far south perspective. This is the inland version of March 1993 with the extreme phasing, so be careful using those qpf numbers, as they will be quite a bit higher in ATL GSP AVL and CLT regions. Easily those places are going to have an historic amount of snow if this verifies. Also, the snow gets going early in Georgia and all the old surface maps had a Savannah inverted trough going straight up through the western Carolinas to the Apps, which keeps an axis of heavy snow going, that the models have missed time and time again, so I'm confident that if this run of the 5H of Euro pans out, then the actual snow amount will be well over a foot in Athens, Greenville, Charlotte and closing in on 2 feet futher east in North Carolina and possibly South Carolina.

The only question is how accurate is the ECMWF being with the phasing. Too bad we don't know that yet. It makes all the difference though.

Also, blizzard conditions may extend well inland. The temps are going to be incredibly low.

[Stormsfury]

KCHS, depending on when they change over, could get as much as .75 of backlash snow. CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA!

OMFG DUDE, I HAVE TO GO AND CHANGE MY SHORTS!

I really have to tell myself the chances of TWO MAJOR SNOWSTORMS in the same calendar (in back to back winters) in this region is so remote, I can't even fathom just how consistent the EURO continues to hold course. I really hope I can find some time to study this but unlikely I'll find too many matches for this scenario.

[Pilotwx]

I think somewhere in the 16:1, but I may be wrong. I think we are going to get hammered by the orographic lift that will be involved, I suspect the totals to go up for everyone, way to early to call how much, but our storm for the southeast is there and its a doozy!

How cold is it going to be so figure out ratios here in the N.Foothills ?

[jrips27]

I was just looking at past great Snowstorms in teh Southeast and this pressure tops them all from a very far south perspective. This is the inland version of March 1993 with the extreme phasing, so be careful using those qpf numbers, as they will be quite a bit higher in ATL GSP AVL and CLT regions. Easily those places are going to have an historic amount of snow if this verifies. Also, the snow gets going early in Georgia and all the old surface maps had a Savannah inverted trough going straight up through the western Carolinas to the Apps, which keeps an axis of heavy snow going, that the models have missed time and time again, so I'm confident that if this run of the 5H of Euro pans out, then the actual snow amount will be well over a foot in Athens, Greenville, Charlotte and closing in on 2 feet futher east in North Carolina and possibly South Carolina.

The only question is how accurate is the ECMWF being with the phasing. Too bad we don't know that yet. It makes all the difference though.

Also, blizzard conditions may extend well inland. The temps are going to be incredibly low.

:stun: I feel like a weenie but, how much higher for the ATL?

[HKY18]

I was just looking at past great Snowstorms in teh Southeast and this pressure tops them all from a very far south perspective. This is the inland version of March 1993 with the extreme phasing, so be careful using those qpf numbers, as they will be quite a bit higher in ATL GSP AVL and CLT regions. Easily those places are going to have an historic amount of snow if this verifies. Also, the snow gets going early in Georgia and all the old surface maps had a Savannah inverted trough going straight up through the western Carolinas to the Apps, which keeps an axis of heavy snow going, that the models have missed time and time again, so I'm confident that if this run of the 5H of Euro pans out, then the actual snow amount will be well over a foot in Athens, Greenville, Charlotte and closing in on 2 feet futher east in North Carolina and possibly South Carolina.

The only question is how accurate is the ECMWF being with the phasing. Too bad we don't know that yet. It makes all the difference though.

Also, blizzard conditions may extend well inland. The temps are going to be incredibly low.

gsp is probably SH***** a brick right now afd will be very interesting. but i would still caution every one any and i mean any shift at all will make a difference.

if it gets any better looking than this. well wait can it look any better?

[Shawn]

OMFG DUDE, I HAVE TO GO AND CHANGE MY SHORTS!

I really have to tell myself the chances of TWO MAJOR SNOWSTORMS in the same calendar (in back to back winters) in this region is so remote, I can't even fathom just how consistent the EURO continues to hold course. I really hope I can find some time to study this but unlikely I'll find too many matches for this scenario.

Just for anyone on the SC coast/Central SC/Savannah areas etc.. last time Storm got excited last Feb, it happened. Just sayin'.

[Hugo]

Florence, SC: 1.94" ALL SNOW

Jesus. Of course, I'm not expecting what's being shown on a model 4 days out, but I can't remember ever seeing a model run, even in the super-long range, show 2+ feet here.

Only 1973 can compare to those totals.

[BIG FROSTY]

I think somewhere in the 16:1, but I may be wrong. I think we are going to get hammered by the orographic lift that will be involved, I suspect the totals to go up for everyone, way to early to call how much, but our storm for the southeast is there and its a doozy!

What's sup Pilot ? Good to hear from you I looked at qpf for our area and the euro is spitting out .78 don't know ratios but i'd say could be close to a foot ?

But I'm stll cautious, one run can have us singing the blues long time till Saturday !

[Jon]

gsp is probably SH***** a brick right now afd will be very interesting. but i would still caution every one any and i mean any shift at all will make a difference.

if it gets any better looking than this. well wait can it look any better?

Well we didn't think it could look better, and the Euro has proven it indeed can...I believe a met said they couldn't draw a better Euro solution, I think it was Matthew East?

[brettjrob]

.30

I'm in HSV for the holidays... do we get anything noteworthy from this run?

Of course, I'll probably be abandoning the family to drive east if this run verifies verbatim... lol.

[NCBlizzard]

I was just looking at past great Snowstorms in teh Southeast and this pressure tops them all from a very far south perspective. This is the inland version of March 1993 with the extreme phasing, so be careful using those qpf numbers, as they will be quite a bit higher in ATL GSP AVL and CLT regions. Easily those places are going to have an historic amount of snow if this verifies. Also, the snow gets going early in Georgia and all the old surface maps had a Savannah inverted trough going straight up through the western Carolinas to the Apps, which keeps an axis of heavy snow going, that the models have missed time and time again, so I'm confident that if this run of the 5H of Euro pans out, then the actual snow amount will be well over a foot in Athens, Greenville, Charlotte and closing in on 2 feet futher east in North Carolina and possibly South Carolina.

The only question is how accurate is the ECMWF being with the phasing. Too bad we don't know that yet. It makes all the difference though.

Also, blizzard conditions may extend well inland. The temps are going to be incredibly low.

Thanks for the input! Heres to a mega storm I have no idea how I'm gonna be able to go to sleep now. Judging from this run could those blizzard conditions reach all the way back here? (sorry but the inner weenie is creeping out)

[CoolBreeze]

I can't help but notice the screwzone near Robert's house in southwestern NC and northwestern SC.

When was the last time there was a legitimate blizzard in the North Carolina lowlands? I can't recall one in my lifetime.

Wasn't there a legitimate blizzard in Eastern NC (Raleigh?) in Jan 1977, if I remember right...?

[HKY18]

What's sup Pilot ? Good to hear from you I looked at qpf for our area and the euro is spitting out .78 don't know ratios but i'd say could be close to a foot ?

probably more than that verbatim ratios are insanely here in parts of the state epspecially where your at!

[jrips27]

Anybody else feel like we are dreaming?

[FoothillsNC]

it snows in western NC from Saturday morning until late Sunday night. The 5H cuts off over the southern Apps and stalls the storm along the NC/SC border. This is the kind of thing that happens in New Englands best storms. Never seen it here. If the Euro is right about the 5H pattern, then like I said earlier the surface low is only going to deepen even more. Its an incredible once in a lifetime look for many of us, and very hard to believe. We'll have to wait it out and see how it handles things tomorrow .

[Hugo]

it snows in western NC from Saturday morning until late Sunday night. The 5H cuts off over the southern Apps and stalls the storm along the NC/SC border. This is the kind of thing that happens in New Englands best storms. Never seen it here. If the Euro is right about the 5H pattern, then like I said earlier the surface low is only going to deepen even more. Its an incredible once in a lifetime look for many of us, and very hard to believe. We'll have to wait it out and see how it handles things tomorrow .

I'm with you. If this was showing a few inches I'd be on board. But with it showing 2-3 feet in my area, it would have to stay consistent probably through 0z FRI for me to be a believer.

[RaleighWx]

Oh man what a run, glad I got up to check it out. This would likely top Jan 2000 in Raleigh if the model is right.

[Marion_NC_WX]

it snows in western NC from Saturday morning until late Sunday night. The 5H cuts off over the southern Apps and stalls the storm along the NC/SC border. This is the kind of thing that happens in New Englands best storms. Never seen it here. If the Euro is right about the 5H pattern, then like I said earlier the surface low is only going to deepen even more. Its an incredible once in a lifetime look for many of us, and very hard to believe. We'll have to wait it out and see how it handles things tomorrow .

I think I'll go to bed on this comment...good night fellas.

[lilj4425]

Anybody else feel like we are dreaming?

"Dreams feel real while we're in them. It's only when we wake up that we realize something was actually strange."

[Wow]

it snows in western NC from Saturday morning until late Sunday night. The 5H cuts off over the southern Apps and stalls the storm along the NC/SC border. This is the kind of thing that happens in New Englands best storms. Never seen it here. If the Euro is right about the 5H pattern, then like I said earlier the surface low is only going to deepen even more. Its an incredible once in a lifetime look for many of us, and very hard to believe. We'll have to wait it out and see how it handles things tomorrow .

Even the March 93 storm cut off over SW VA. Recall what happened in WV in that storm!! This would be east of that track and would clobber the Carolina piedmont.