Christmas Storm III

[Marion_NC_WX]

Folks...the 0z European if it came to truth would easily exceed the December 18th storm of last year in this state. The maps itself is just so dang reminiscant of March 1993...with a Gulf Low starting to bomb out over the Florida Panhandle and then going right up the coast.

Folks, this would cripple some major hubs like Charlote and RDU. Thankfully for those who travel on Christmas Eve, all would be fine, but your stay may be a bit longer than your hosts would want it to be.

[Ivanhater]

For FLA guy, KMAI gets an inch or two of backlash snow.

You are Sh*ting me!

Thanks!

[WeatherNC]

air raid pearl harbor this is not a drill

976 mb 50 miles east of wallops island va

this, stop the clutter, we need a general banter thread to keep the objective insight going in a pointed fashion!

Ok at 108, coastal SC goes to rain and southest NC. then at 114, all SC is back to snow and coastal NC is probably rain or sleet, even edging into areas east of Raleigh on this run, but RDU looks to stay all solid snow probably toward Rocky MT will mix or go over due to strong inflow from Atlantic. The QPF, don't sweat it. Actaully western NC SC and most of GA would be hit hard with snow from the veery begginning I think due to the low going negative just at the right time, which keeps an axis of moderate to hevy snow going from central GA to possibly eastern ATL suburbs right up 85 to the foothills due to the lee trough. I've seen this before, the lee trough or Savannah river trough will be there, you can see it on countless surface maps of storms like this , which enhances snow and allows a deformation zone to die out in the western halves of the Carolinas almost eveyr time to be the very last to lose precip. Saw h this last February as well.

So long as this run is correct, the qpf will go up for ATL and points north and eastweard I think. Obviously the strong surface low will have incredible wind swept snow on its west side, so Raleigh could be looking at a repeat of Jan 2000. LIke I said, I thought this could be a great run with an extreme outcome due to the severe anomalous conditions we have going on.

[superjames1992]

QPF lines:

0.5-1": between I-26 and I-77

1"-2" : between I-77 and I-95

2"+: east of I-95

MY GOD!!! Unbelievable.

That would put me in the 1-2" range (though probably closer to 1" being closer to 77 than 95). This is too good to be true!

Some folks in Eastern NC would be digging out of 2+ feet of snow if this verified, I suppose!

[SBUWX23]

The local NWS offices and local news HAVE to jump on this sometime tomorrow, EVERY model is in agreement!

NO they dont.

[rduwx]

Off to bed...Hopefully this will continue tomorrow.

[Wow]

Now for a non weather person like me, how exactly do these numbers transfer to the amount of precip?

with 1" QPF.. 1:12 ratio warrants a foot. It looks to be colder.. so higher ratios are possible.

[Wow]

holy crap, the low goes stationary over the Delmarva. MA gets hammered. Very Jan 96 like with the stalled low due to cut off ULL

[BullCityWx]

Totals on the QPF(by amount):

RDU: 1.97"

CAE: 1.46"

GSO: 1.35"

CLT: 1.20"

HKY: 0.78(EXTREMELY high ratios though)

GSP: 0.60

All of these locations are ALL SNOW.

[GaWx]

0Z Euro gives KATL major snow of ~4" (5" KAHN) late 12/25 to early 12/26, which would be the biggest Dec. KATL snow since 1917 and the biggest moderate to strong La Nina snow since 1894! This run also gives CHS/SAV potentially a couple of inches of backlash snow!

I have a trip planned to Chapel Hill on Mon. 12/27. I may have to cancel those plans.

[BIG FROSTY]

How cold is it going to be so figure out ratios here in the N.Foothills ?

[DLI4SCwx]

Totals on the QPF(by amount):

RDU: 1.97"

CAE: 1.46"

GSO: 1.35"

CLT: 1.20"

HKY: 0.78(EXTREMELY high ratios though)

GSP: 0.60

All of these locations are ALL SNOW.

Thanks for the QPF totals! Is most of this in the form of snow? Sorry, just caught what you said about it being all snow.

[superjames1992]

Totals on the QPF(by amount):

RDU: 1.97"

CAE: 1.46"

GSO: 1.35"

CLT: 1.20"

HKY: 0.78(EXTREMELY high ratios though)

GSP: 0.60

All of these locations are ALL SNOW.

HOLY CRAP!!! WOW.

I'd have some awesome snow ratios here, too.

Got to temper my expectations, though, haha. But with the Euro showing a big hit for five consecutive runs now, I'm gaining confidence at a significant snowfall here (in excess of 4").

[Marion_NC_WX]

Given how this may pan out on the EURO, there will be plenty of variable conditions across the state of North Carolina.

First off, Western and Central NC will easily be all snow the entire event. As ratios increase, the totals will increase keeping up off-setting the lack of QPF as compared to those farther east. Now the thing about down east is that this storm could get so wrapped up that it may pull in warmer air from the Atlantic...but I see this as an issue for those close to the coast, maybe inland 50-60 miles. So while you may begin all snow, there could be a period during rapid intensification that enough slighty warmer air could mix in. This kind of scenario only happens with the mega-storms (ala 1993). But then as soon as the surface low passes, any warm air aloft would quickly get shunted out.

With the EURO being so consistant with this major bomb, I don't think it would be unfair to start throwing around the "B" word for some areas.

[DopplerWx]

Thanks for the QPF totals! Is most of this in the form of snow? Sorry, just caught what you said about it being all snow.

ALL SNOW my friend!

[Reb]

Can I have the qpf for TYS please?

[HKY18]

I can't quite call this a 3-stream phaser in that sense but this thing is damn close to being a triple phaser on this run. There is definitely 3 s/w phasing in with an amazing surface cyclone. I'm not sure yet if this is a triple phaser. The pocket of Arctic air at h85 is -12c at its coolest. This may be a hybrid triple phaser.

[lilj4425]

Totals on the QPF(by amount):

RDU: 1.97"

CAE: 1.46"

GSO: 1.35"

CLT: 1.20"

HKY: 0.78(EXTREMELY high ratios though)

GSP: 0.60

All of these locations are ALL SNOW.

Figures i'd get the lowest total. Hopefully the ratios are high here if it verifies.

[weatherheels]

Totals on the QPF(by amount):

RDU: 1.97"

CAE: 1.46"

GSO: 1.35"

CLT: 1.20"

HKY: 0.78(EXTREMELY high ratios though)

GSP: 0.60

All of these locations are ALL SNOW.

Wow. Sounds like Jan 2000 on Roids. Why are we still 4/5 days out? I keep telling myself it's simply to good to be true. I'm stunned by the consistency that the Euro has shown, time after time it is holding....just let it continue, thats all I can say.

[Stormsfury]

Thanks for the QPF totals! Is most of this in the form of snow? Sorry, just caught what you said about it being all snow.

OMFG DUDE. IF THAT VERIFIES, KCAE GETS 12"-20" of SNOW!

[WeatherNC]

From the man who invented the terminology im short opinion...

I can't quite call this a 3-stream phaser in that sense but this thing is damn close to being a triple phaser on this run. There is definitely 3 s/w phasing in with an amazing surface cyclone. I'm not sure yet if this is a triple phaser. The pocket of Arctic air at h85 is -12c at its coolest. This may be a hybrid triple phaser.

[BullCityWx]

Given how this may pan out on the EURO, there will be plenty of variable conditions across the state of North Carolina.

First off, Western and Central NC will easily be all snow the entire event. As ratios increase, the totals will increase keeping up off-setting the lack of QPF as compared to those farther east. Now the thing about down east is that this storm could get so wrapped up that it may pull in warmer air from the Atlantic...but I see this as an issue for those close to the coast, maybe inland 50-60 miles. So while you may begin all snow, there could be a period during rapid intensification that enough slighty warmer air could mix in. This kind of scenario only happens with the mega-storms (ala 1993). But then as soon as the surface low passes, any warm air aloft would quickly get shunted out.

With the EURO being so consistant with this major bomb, I don't think it would be unfair to start throwing around the "B" word for some areas.

it's a definite blizzard for most of north carolina.

[Rankin5150]

Alright off to bed for me

Thanks man!

[keithinala]

Can I have the qpf for TYS please?

.30

[HKY18]

From the man who invented the terminology im short opinion...

yes i quoted that as well amazing possibilites!

[jburns]

it's a definite blizzard for most of north carolina.

Think we will have the wind to meet the criteria?

[dsaur]

0Z Euro gives KATL major snow of ~4" (5" KAHN) late 12/25 to early 12/26, which would be the biggest Dec. KATL snow since 1917 and the biggest moderate to strong La Nina snow since 1894! This run also gives CHS/SAV potentially a couple of inches of backlash snow!

I have a trip planned to Chapel Hill on Mon. 12/27. I may have to cancel those plans.

Can't be too many back to back years of Savannah snows! T

[Jon]

Some 4-panels:

96hr

120hr

[Blue Ridge]

Have no fear, TN brethren.

The position of the ULL means that the west side of the Apps very well may be hammered, too. Also, given the cold air in place and lesser WAA thanks to the general eastern location of the low, ratios will be very high.

[DCMetroWinston]

Wow. Sounds like Jan 2000 on Roids. Why are we still 4/5 days out? I keep telling myself it's simply to good to be true. I'm stunned by the consistency that the Euro has shown, time after time it is holding....just let it continue, thats all I can say.

just four days now...3.5 for western areas of region