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Christmas Storm III


Cold Rain

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1236 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID DEC 22/0000 UTC THRU DEC 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z/22 PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.

...CONTINENTAL POLAR FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NONE

THE NAM...GFS...GEM GLOBAL...UKMET...AND 12Z/21 ECMWF ALL HANDLE

THIS BOUNDARY COMPARABLY.

...SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/22 ECMWF

THE NAM TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z/21 ECMWF...WITH

SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE BY THE TIME IT REACHES LOUISIANA BY THE

END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BEGIN TO PULL AHEAD OF

THE NAM AND ECMWF LATE DAY 3 ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS

SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE LIKE THE NAM. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON

THE SLOW...SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...A BIAS OF THE MODEL.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRENDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW ECMWF TO MAKE A

FINAL CALL. :popcorn:

...BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR 12Z/21 ECMWF

THE NAM EDGES THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO SHORE THAN THE GFS AND

12Z/21 ECMWF...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF

DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET CLUSTER WITH THE GFS AND OLD

ECMWF...SO WILL RELY ON THEIR CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE CONSENSUS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

CISCO

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