Christmas Storm III

[chapelhillwx]

Ratio's are even higher than that in HKY. They start at 14:1 and end at 22:1 which means 4.4" of snow(warning criteria).

I'm not sure if it has IGX. If not, could you maybe post the ratios for RDU? Thanks!

[dsaur]

I haven't read this whole thread due to time, but I guess i'm about the only one who really likes the chances of the euro coming close to accurate. The models aloft are getting much closer, and toward the Euro through 72 hours and then diverge a little. I really really like how the GFS has trended , and the looks of the PNA and this extreme amplification we keep getting I think still keeps an extreme deterministic solution on the table. In fact its possible the Euro could trend stronger, I 'm not saying it will though, but with the extreme blocking and the high amplification, this is how things are made really BIG. The southern stream continues to look strong, and mayber stronger for longer and the models have the northern stream coming in a little faster to capture it at just the right spot, this though is where the models diverge int eh lower missi. valley region. I know its rare to close off 5H over northern Alabama and Tenn. Valley, but its possible now since we have a couple of extremely unusual ingredients. Split flow, High Lat extreme blocking, super-tall PNA . Yet its going to be a close call either way, but a big storm is the most likely scenario the question is exactly where. I'd say if the southern stream holds strong for 12 more hours through LA or southern Arkansas, then theres a higher than 50% chance that the Euro has a mega-southeast coastal ( as long as it keeps the high amp ridge)

We'll see.

Robert, that block is pretty impressive. The crazy range of the gfs has been carrying some very nice, some text book looking blocks really all month, and part of Nov. How likely is that block as depicted to stay on the map? Can't see the Euro so I'm wondering if the Doc. is as emphatic with it's blocks. Tony

[Stormsfury]

GGEM actually gives some backlash snow to CHS/SAV Sat night. We just had an AO plunge to under -5.This has occurred only during 8 winters since 1950. Strong blocks can lead to unusual deep south wintry wx.

Should have waited for the extra stuff. I didn't have the chance to see the AO plunge like that! All I can say is that Feb 12th of this year was proof positive of that and still what an outstanding call on KCHS/KSAV getting measurable snow 2 months before it occurred based your research of analogs.

[BullCityWx]

GSO:

101225/1500Z  87  VRB02KT  31.8F  SNOW    13:1| 0.1|| 0.1    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/1800Z  90  VRB01KT  31.1F  SNOW    13:1| 0.7|| 0.8    0.055|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/2100Z  93  VRB02KT  30.0F  SNOW    14:1| 1.4|| 2.2    0.102|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0000Z  96  05003KT  28.9F  SNOW    15:1| 0.9|| 3.1    0.059|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

CLT:

101225/1800Z  90  09004KT  32.0F  SNOW    16:1| 1.0|| 1.0    0.063|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/2100Z  93  07004KT  30.6F  SNOW    12:1| 1.3|| 2.4    0.110|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0000Z  96  05004KT  29.5F  SNOW    14:1| 0.8|| 3.2    0.059|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101226/0300Z  99  04006KT  29.3F  SNOW    20:1| 0.2|| 3.4    0.012|| 0.24     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

HKY:

101225/1500Z  87  12003KT  32.2F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/1800Z  90  13004KT  31.3F  SNOW    13:1| 1.4|| 1.6    0.106|| 0.12     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/2100Z  93  12004KT  30.0F  SNOW    19:1| 2.0|| 3.6    0.102|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0000Z  96  09004KT  28.2F  SNOW    22:1| 0.8|| 4.4    0.035|| 0.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

FAY:

101225/2100Z  93  05004KT  35.6F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    76|  0| 24
101226/0000Z  96  06005KT  32.7F  SNOW    14:1| 0.5|| 0.5    0.035|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101226/0300Z  99  04005KT  31.3F  SNOW    22:1| 1.5|| 2.0    0.067|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0600Z 102  03007KT  30.9F  SNOW    24:1| 2.3|| 4.2    0.094|| 0.20     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0900Z 105  03009KT  29.8F  SNOW    15:1| 0.9|| 5.1    0.059|| 0.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1200Z 108  02010KT  28.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 5.1    0.000|| 0.26     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

RDU:

101225/1800Z  90  VRB01KT  34.7F  SNOW    11:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.020|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101225/2100Z  93  VRB01KT  32.5F  SNOW    12:1| 0.9|| 0.9    0.075|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0000Z  96  VRB02KT  30.2F  SNOW    12:1| 0.9|| 1.8    0.071|| 0.17     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101226/0300Z  99  05003KT  29.3F  SNOW    16:1| 0.6|| 2.3    0.035|| 0.20     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

[BIG FROSTY]

GFS gives me .18 qpf

12z euro gave me .61

[Wow]

The big winner of the GFS run appears to the the foothills/western and northern piedmont areas. The ratio's are just so high.

Actually, KFAY is the biggest winner with almost half a foot.

I gotta put my Ji mask on and say personally 4" isn't big to me. I know it's hard to come by compared to, say, the mountains, but my method of defining "big" is when it's hard to walk in it and up to your shins in snow which is 8"+. I know I'm greedy, but alas.

[BullCityWx]

I gotta put my Ji mask on and say personally 4" isn't big to me. I know it's hard to come by compared to, say, the mountains, but my method of defining "big" is when it's hard to walk in it and up to your shins in snow which is 8"+. I know I'm greedy, but alas.

Well ya know, as long as QPF doesnt drop too dramatically, we may do ok due to super good ratio's. I think I mentioned that earlier today.

[dsaur]

And Meteostar has my winds wsw for the bulk of the precip. Glory be.... T

[FoothillsNC]

Hope you are right, brother (and sorry about the radio show snafu -- bummer!)

Question: What known biases of the Canadian and UKmet would have them showing such suppressed solutions? Or do you have any other explanation for their more easterly tracks?

I don't look at UKmet that often, just usually when the Euro and/or the GFS has a winter threat for the Southeast, which isn't too often (realistically) so i can't say much about its bias. I do recall Will saying that it does funny things and is progressive after 72 hours. He mentioned the storm last week tht got Minn. was supposed to be in New England on day 5. I don't know though. The GGEM I'm ambivalent about. Its a known warm bias in temps for sure, as well as High pressure. Seems to me its usually a pretty flat model as well looking back at some of our storms but it did ok in the March 09 event from 3 days out, I do remember that. The suppressed solutions could be just from all models thinking the northern stream is so dominant right now (which it was -- up until now, or the next few days) We are about to get a temporary split flow on all models and HUGE ridging out west, perhaps the best in a lot of years. The reason is the huge Pacific vortex, actually in our favor for once. Another thing about that is just look how cold we've been with practically no ridging out west. I can't imagine how cold we are going to get with some good ridging now, come next week we'll probably be in record low territory, regardless of storm.

Robert, that block is pretty impressive. The crazy range of the gfs has been carrying some very nice, some text book looking blocks really all month, and part of Nov. How likely is that block as depicted to stay on the map? Can't see the Euro so I'm wondering if the Doc. is as emphatic with it's blocks. Tony

They both missed the blockng in late November, and it got delayed, yet both they and ensembles kept insisting it was coming, and it certainly did. The CPC maps issued 2 weeks in advance had extreme standard deviations right over Ky, Tnn, NC, SC and GA for the exact time period in which it occurred-- TWICE. So now they're pretty good. But they've been hit and miss. When a pattern is changing , sometimes that gets delayed. I don't know about the long term. I went for cold Dec and March, and warm Jan and Feb for the Southeast. But not this cold. however the CPC had a good discussion on the NAO and its cycles, we're probably in a long term cycle of Negative now. But they're be periods of extreme positive, when the shoe drops which maybe in January. Who really knows, but it will come back I think due to long term trends and the SST near Greenland. So the theme is probably going to be extreme outbreaks and then extreme warmth, then extreme cold again.

[Wow]

Well ya know, as long as QPF doesnt drop too dramatically, we may do ok due to super good ratio's. I think I mentioned that earlier today.

If we can actually pull off 1" QPF and hold temps in the 20s, I'd be as happy as a rat with a gold tooth

[BullCityWx]

If we can actually pull off 1" QPF and hold temps in the 20s, I'd be as happy as a rat with a gold tooth

They dont come much happier than that.

[Jon]

Here comes the Euro guys, who's going to do the PBP??

[Wow]

Euro has begun.. out to 12 hours

[jrips27]

Heres to a big hit on the Euro...

[GaWx]

Should have waited for the extra stuff. I didn't have the chance to see the AO plunge like that! All I can say is that Feb 12th of this year was proof positive of that and still what an outstanding call on KCHS/KSAV getting measurable snow 2 months before it occurred based your research of analogs.

Thanks Storm. Here are the only times during winter when the AO dipped below -5 prior to 12/18/2010:

1/21/1963, 2/13-16/1969, 3/4-10/1970, 12/28-9/1976, 1/11-17/1977, 2/5-6/1978, 1/18-20/1985, 12/20-25/2009, 1/2-6/2010, 2/6-7/2010, and 2/14/2010..actually only during 7 winters since 1950.

It also dropped below -5 11/18-19/1959.

[Wow]

actually a hair SW compared to 12z

[dsaur]

I don't look at UKmet that often, just usually when the Euro and/or the GFS has a winter threat for the Southeast, which isn't too often (realistically) so i can't say much about its bias. I do recall Will saying that it does funny things and is progressive after 72 hours. He mentioned the storm last week tht got Minn. was supposed to be in New England on day 5. I don't know though. The GGEM I'm ambivalent about. Its a known warm bias in temps for sure, as well as High pressure. Seems to me its usually a pretty flat model as well looking back at some of our storms but it did ok in the March 09 event from 3 days out, I do remember that. The suppressed solutions could be just from all models thinking the northern stream is so dominant right now (which it was -- up until now, or the next few days) We are about to get a temporary split flow on all models and HUGE ridging out west, perhaps the best in a lot of years. The reason is the huge Pacific vortex, actually in our favor for once. Another thing about that is just look how cold we've been with practically no ridging out west. I can't imagine how cold we are going to get with some good ridging now, come next week we'll probably be in record low territory, regardless of storm.

They both missed the blockng in late November, and it got delayed, yet both they and ensembles kept insisting it was coming, and it certainly did. The CPC maps issued 2 weeks in advance had extreme standard deviations right over Ky, Tnn, NC, SC and GA for the exact time period in which it occurred-- TWICE. So now they're pretty good. But they've been hit and miss. When a pattern is changing , sometimes that gets delayed. I don't know about the long term. I went for cold Dec and March, and warm Jan and Feb for the Southeast. But not this cold. however the CPC had a good discussion on the NAO and its cycles, we're probably in a long term cycle of Negative now. But they're be periods of extreme positive, when the shoe drops which maybe in January. Who really knows, but it will come back I think due to long term trends and the SST near Greenland. So the theme is probably going to be extreme outbreaks and then extreme warmth, then extreme cold again.

Thank you, sir! I think we need to take over the air waves, and have an all southern met. show. At least once or twice a winter.

. These chances could just keep coming. T

[burgertime]

@18 it's in line with the placement of energy entering CA with the 12z Euro.

[NCSNOW]

Well ya know, as long as QPF doesnt drop too dramatically, we may do ok due to super good ratio's. I think I mentioned that earlier today.

I feel very confident in 2 things atm. Southern Track and High Ratios for Triad area. It's gonna come down to eitheir a -.15-.20 event or .75-1.25 event. But like Wow I want to get burried.

[rduwx]

Here comes the Euro guys, who's going to do the PBP??

It has to be Robert if he is going to stay up.

[Wow]

at 24, still about the same

and at 30, spot on.. maybe a hair slower

[FoothillsNC]

@18 it's in line with the placement of energy entering CA with the 12z Euro.

how do you feel about this?

It has to be Robert if he is going to stay up.

I didn't intend to be up, but guess I am! Between parents Dr's appts and me burning the candle at all 3 ends, tons of other stuff, now this possibly historic storm, I have had maybe 8 hrs sleep total in the last 4 or 5 days. Not good. At some point , if the storm does come, i'll sleep right through it. But i will say I have a very good feeling about someone getting a good snow.

[WeatherNC]

Considering we are heading into the 1 am EST hour, this crowd is remarkable for a SE draw!

If the EC holds serve, that would be a sig step in the upward chances as we have 5 op runs in a row. If not, do not be dis-heartened as the big 3 ens means points to a accumm solution for most north of I-20. Not likely to happen at this stage, but a big dog run of the EC tonight adds more roast to the dinner table.

[burgertime]

@36 it's looking about the same.

[Wow]

at 36, about the same. down stream ridge slightly taller but that's not a bad thing really

[Wow]

at 42, again.. near spot on. downstream ridge back to near identical to 12z

[burgertime]

how do you feel about this?

I didn't intend to be up, but guess I am! Between parents Dr's appts and me burning the candle at all 3 ends, tons of other stuff, now this possibly historic storm, I have had maybe 8 hrs sleep total in the last 4 or 5 days. Not good. At some point , if the storm does come, i'll sleep right through it. But i will say I have a very good feeling about someone getting a good snow.

I know it's useless to say get some sleep, but get some sleep. If I had work in the morning I would already be off in dream land. I know how it is though.

@42 pretty much a carbon copy.

[FoothillsNC]

through 42 hours it looks about the same, identical really.

[Rankin5150]

at 42, again.. near spot on

I am waiting with baited breath to see what you guys have to say when the system is showning up at the Gulf coast (on this Euro run) and whether it is OTS or up the coast then OTS? Etc....

[rduwx]

how do you feel about this?

I didn't intend to be up, but guess I am! Between parents Dr's appts and me burning the candle at all 3 ends, tons of other stuff, now this possibly historic storm, I have had maybe 8 hrs sleep total in the last 4 or 5 days. Not good. At some point , if the storm does come, i'll sleep right through it. But i will say I have a very good feeling about someone getting a good snow.

You definitely need to get some sleep then. If this storm does hit us and it's at the middle of the night you need to have enough rest to stay up then!