Christmas Storm III

[FoothillsNC]

Canadian run is a real shocker -- just when it seemed like the GFS was on board and we were headed toward consensus, the Canadian basically cuts WNC out of the deal, except for maybe some flurries.

It looked ok at 5H but maybe didnt' have the Pna ridge quite as well aligned as the GFS or the EURO especially. Which makes the tiniest difference at the surface, but has huge implications on the precip shield. Its really a small difference aloft I think but we're needing to thread this like the Euro almost precisely, with hardly any room at all. Also, the Euro and GFS are really close now with the southern feature. I think the biggest question of all is which model will handle the northern stream correctly.

[DopplerWx]

My 850's look good...0 at onset, and the surface temps are cold enough for snow even though it is afternoon. And the dp gives me room to play with. Dang, it has sucked me in. If the gfs hadn't come south, I could have fought the urge to believe. T

Same here. I gave up trying to temper my expectations 2 days ago but I still left a little room for an epic dissapointment. Now I'm all in, if we can jsut get the models to keep with it

once the s/w is onshore we will be set.

[WidreMann]

It looked ok at 5H but maybe didnt' have the Pna ridge quite as well aligned as the GFS or the EURO especially. Which makes the tiniest difference at the surface, but has huge implications on the precip shield. Its really a small difference aloft I think but we're needing to thread this like the Euro almost precisely, with hardly any room at all. Also, the Euro and GFS are really close now with the southern feature. I think the biggest question of all is which model will handle the northern stream correctly.

Sounds like we just wait till Thursday night. Maybe I can finally check out and get some work done. I keep saying I'm going to do that, and like a heroin addict, I keep coming back.

[Wow]

GGEM phases really late and does't really bomb until Hattaras. Kind of a weird H5 setup though. I think it's hiccuped tonight.

[AirNelson39]

<br />Damn, anyone else worried about the Euro being suppressed tonight?  If it is, well, we'll have most major guidance showing pretty much an OTS solution, which from what I've gathered is definitely a possibility.  Even with what the current GFS guidance is showing, still a decent event for quite a few in the S.E.  Not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination, but I'd take my inch on Xmas night with a smile and a tip of the cap to the snow Gods.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Sure am, now way euro holds it's ground tonight. Not trying to be a Debbie downer but all and I mean all the other models aren't being to generous to western NC. Have a bad feeling we get shafted and the eastern part of NC does decent. Never works out for both side of the state really

[Wow]

Sounds like we just wait till Thursday night. Maybe I can finally check out and get some work done. I keep saying I'm going to do that, and like a heroin addict, I keep coming back.

you're going to wait 45 min for the Euro. I know it.

[WidreMann]

you're going to wait 45 min for the Euro. I know it.

I'm actually going to bed in just a few.

[DopplerWx]

CMC takes it off the GA coast as well. Does it go OTS?

[Stormsfury]

GGEM phases really late and does't really bomb until Hattaras. Kind of a weird H5 setup though. I think it's hiccuped tonight.

Fortunately the GGEM tends to be a bit progressive in nature also. Just at the time I actually need some time to really digest all the datasets and guidance, now business picks up and keeps me tied into work for a change. Overall, I gather, better news the GFS is starting to trend towards the right direction and a little further south with the s/w.

[Rob]

Foothills I wanted to ask you about Nashville. Most of the talk is later in the time period. This event is a little sooner for us but it seems the Northern energy is what really spawns SN here rather than the surface low to the South. Could you help explain our setup a bit better at the current moment. Thanks as always for including TN.

[BIG FROSTY]

I got a feeling wnc def nwnc is going to be in trouble. I told Powerstroke today when the euro keeps inching futher se it's bad for us in wnc and now other models are going way east is a BAD SIGN I bet the euro tonight is futher off the coast than the 12z run. I know there's alot of time until the weekend but just yesterday we were worried about it being to far north. lol If I lived in enc I would feel pretty good right now.

[Carvers Gap]

Well. I"m done with radio shows! I tried 3 times to answer calls , from Georgia, Alabama and Dan's question. I heard the question fine, and they assumed I hung up. After not being allowed to answer the first 2 questions ( which I tried). DT got to answer both questions and I had plenty to say. Oh well. Maybe my call was dropped a long time ago, that would explain some things like not being allowed to answer the questions. Did anyone hear me try to answer?

At any rate, I'm pleased with the trends tonight of the GFS.

You were really just trying to protect us from the Radio Show's bad mojo toward storms.

[DLI4SCwx]

Fortunately the GGEM tends to be a bit progressive in nature also. Just at the time I actually need some time to really digest all the datasets and guidance, now business picks up and keeps me tied into work for a change. Overall, I gather, better news the GFS is starting to trend towards the right direction and a little further south with the s/w.

Good to see you on here Storm! Where you been man? Guess busy with work. Was wondering when you were gonna chime in.

[DopplerWx]

Storm how do you feel about your chances down in Summerville?

[ams30721us]

Looks like a rain to snow scenario for us. I hate the craptastic maps they use.

Again look closer...

[FoothillsNC]

I haven't read this whole thread due to time, but I guess i'm about the only one who really likes the chances of the euro coming close to accurate. The models aloft are getting much closer, and toward the Euro through 72 hours and then diverge a little. I really really like how the GFS has trended , and the looks of the PNA and this extreme amplification we keep getting I think still keeps an extreme deterministic solution on the table. In fact its possible the Euro could trend stronger, I 'm not saying it will though, but with the extreme blocking and the high amplification, this is how things are made really BIG. The southern stream continues to look strong, and mayber stronger for longer and the models have the northern stream coming in a little faster to capture it at just the right spot, this though is where the models diverge int eh lower missi. valley region. I know its rare to close off 5H over northern Alabama and Tenn. Valley, but its possible now since we have a couple of extremely unusual ingredients. Split flow, High Lat extreme blocking, super-tall PNA . Yet its going to be a close call either way, but a big storm is the most likely scenario the question is exactly where. I'd say if the southern stream holds strong for 12 more hours through LA or southern Arkansas, then theres a higher than 50% chance that the Euro has a mega-southeast coastal ( as long as it keeps the high amp ridge)

We'll see.

[BullCityWx]

GFSX MOS (MEX)
KAKH   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/22/2010  0000 UTC                       
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
WED  22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28| WED 29 CLIMO
X/N  57| 28  49| 24  51| 30  45| 27  38| 22  37| 19  40| 19  49 31 51
TMP  48| 30  39| 26  40| 32  36| 29  30| 23  29| 21  30| 21  40      
DPT  37| 22  20| 18  21| 23  25| 22  19| 16  14| 13  15| 12  20      
CLD  OV| CL  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL      
WND   7|  7   9|  3   4|  3   4|  8  10|  4   9|  4   7|  3   6      
P12  11|  4   2|  1   3| 14  52| 45  21| 12  10|  8  12|  8  12999999
P24    |      6|      3|     52|     51|     15|     12|     12   999
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0    |             
Q24    |      0|      0|      1|      1|      0|       |             
T12   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   4|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  1   2      
T24    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  4    |  1    |  1    |  1          
PZP   3|  3   6|  9  12| 13  10| 14  11|  9  10| 11  11| 14  17      
PSN   2| 40  44| 69  26| 44  42| 57  69| 72  67| 59  57| 36  20      
PRS   7| 27  26|  0   0| 14  22|  7   2|  0   1|  1   2|  4   3      
TYP   R| RS   S|  S   R|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   Z      
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      2|      0|       |     

FWIW, MEX mos gives me a 2 for snow on Saturday Evening/Sunday Morning(meaning 2-4" snowfall).

[BullCityWx]

And Bufkit gives KCLT really high ratios...12:1-16:1 throughout the event for a storm total of 3.4".

[Stormsfury]

Storm how do you feel about your chances down in Summerville?

Not going to make any assumptions yet...but if I were a betting man, and all the little teaser events so far this month, I think it's game on for a lot of people in the Southeast. I'm going to wait one more day (and some more study time on guidance and analogs) to get excited about the prospects of this but at least the potential is there.

[GaWx]

Fortunately the GGEM tends to be a bit progressive in nature also. Just at the time I actually need some time to really digest all the datasets and guidance, now business picks up and keeps me tied into work for a change. Overall, I gather, better news the GFS is starting to trend towards the right direction and a little further south with the s/w.

GGEM actually gives some backlash snow to CHS/SAV Sat night. We just had an AO plunge to under -5.This has occurred only during 8 winters since 1950. Strong blocks can lead to unusual deep south wintry wx.

[Wow]

I haven't read this whole thread due to time, but I guess i'm about the only one who really likes the chances of the euro coming close to accurate. The models aloft are getting much closer, and toward the Euro through 72 hours and then diverge a little. I really really like how the GFS has trended , and the looks of the PNA and this extreme amplification we keep getting I think still keeps an extreme deterministic solution on the table. In fact its possible the Euro could trend stronger, I 'm not saying it will though, but with the extreme blocking and the high amplification, this is how things are made really BIG. The southern stream continues to look strong, and mayber stronger for longer and the models have the northern stream coming in a little faster to capture it at just the right spot, this though is where the models diverge int eh lower missi. valley region. I know its rare to close off 5H over northern Alabama and Tenn. Valley, but its possible now since we have a couple of extremely unusual ingredients. Split flow, High Lat extreme blocking, super-tall PNA . Yet its going to be a close call either way, but a big storm is the most likely scenario the question is exactly where. I'd say if the southern stream holds strong for 12 more hours through LA or southern Arkansas, then theres a higher than 50% chance that the Euro has a mega-southeast coastal ( as long as it keeps the high amp ridge)

We'll see.

I hope you're right. I may have to hold out a little longer to watch it come in again.

[DopplerWx]

And Bufkit gives KCLT really high ratios...12:1-16:1 throughout the event for a storm total of 3.4".

How does KCAE look?

[Reb]

I haven't read this whole thread due to time, but I guess i'm about the only one who really likes the chances of the euro coming close to accurate. The models aloft are getting much closer, and toward the Euro through 72 hours and then diverge a little. I really really like how the GFS has trended , and the looks of the PNA and this extreme amplification we keep getting I think still keeps an extreme deterministic solution on the table. In fact its possible the Euro could trend stronger, I 'm not saying it will though, but with the extreme blocking and the high amplification, this is how things are made really BIG. The southern stream continues to look strong, and mayber stronger for longer and the models have the northern stream coming in a little faster to capture it at just the right spot, this though is where the models diverge int eh lower missi. valley region. I know its rare to close off 5H over northern Alabama and Tenn. Valley, but its possible now since we have a couple of extremely unusual ingredients. Split flow, High Lat extreme blocking, super-tall PNA . Yet its going to be a close call either way, but a big storm is the most likely scenario the question is exactly where. I'd say if the southern stream holds strong for 12 more hours through LA or southern Arkansas, then theres a higher than 50% chance that the Euro has a mega-southeast coastal ( as long as it keeps the high amp ridge)

We'll see.

do you think 5-7 inches is possible in the central valley of ETN?

[BullCityWx]

Ratio's are even higher than that in HKY. They start at 14:1 and end at 22:1 which means 4.4" of snow(warning criteria).

[FoothillsNC]

Foothills I wanted to ask you about Nashville. Most of the talk is later in the time period. This event is a little sooner for us but it seems the Northern energy is what really spawns SN here rather than the surface low to the South. Could you help explain our setup a bit better at the current moment. Thanks as always for including TN.

I like the looks of the GFS really it seems reasonable up to 72 hours, by then TEnn is probably covered in light to moderate snow, from TUP to nw GA as well. You're right the northern stream is what shears the top of the moisture southestward from the ULL to the west in northeast Tx, and that actually could bea good 2-4" snow, i hate putting amounts out now, but the divergence from the east side of the southern trough looks good to me as well as the incoming northern feature. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS being a little light on qpf. It does have over 1" in northeast Tx then it suddently shears the closed (or open ) trough too quickly. The way the storm actually pivots could place Tenn. in a long duration snowfall, albeit light to moderate, it fans out from east to west, whereas places south are more narrow precip axis.

[beanskip]

Hope you are right, brother (and sorry about the radio show snafu -- bummer!)

Question: What known biases of the Canadian and UKmet would have them showing such suppressed solutions? Or do you have any other explanation for their more easterly tracks?

I haven't read this whole thread due to time, but I guess i'm about the only one who really likes the chances of the euro coming close to accurate. The models aloft are getting much closer, and toward the Euro through 72 hours and then diverge a little. I really really like how the GFS has trended , and the looks of the PNA and this extreme amplification we keep getting I think still keeps an extreme deterministic solution on the table. In fact its possible the Euro could trend stronger, I 'm not saying it will though, but with the extreme blocking and the high amplification, this is how things are made really BIG. The southern stream continues to look strong, and mayber stronger for longer and the models have the northern stream coming in a little faster to capture it at just the right spot, this though is where the models diverge int eh lower missi. valley region. I know its rare to close off 5H over northern Alabama and Tenn. Valley, but its possible now since we have a couple of extremely unusual ingredients. Split flow, High Lat extreme blocking, super-tall PNA . Yet its going to be a close call either way, but a big storm is the most likely scenario the question is exactly where. I'd say if the southern stream holds strong for 12 more hours through LA or southern Arkansas, then theres a higher than 50% chance that the Euro has a mega-southeast coastal ( as long as it keeps the high amp ridge)

We'll see.

[HKY18]

was actually about to post the same thing foothills but my wireless keyboard died LOL. anyway through 72hrs nearly every model has trended towards the euro. and the gfs looked great and the northern stream killed late in the run once again but this is a know bias of the gfs and might very well hold till about 84 to 72 hrs before the start of the storm and then trend toward a bigger storm over the eastern us ggem was actually slower and farther south through 72 hrs so encouraging trends imo. we really need the euro to continue with huge PNA ridge out west.

[BullCityWx]

How does KCAE look?

Bufkit is almost all rain for CAE except for .4 at the end of the event.

[Stormsfury]

GGEM actually gives some backlash snow to CHS/SAV Sat night.

That's basically what the EURO does too on the 12z run. Hit the dry slot with the SFC low 997 mb off of KCHS at 120 hours and 850mb at 4C, then temps crash as backlash hits with a rapid crash in temperatures, very Mar 1980'ish look

[BullCityWx]

The big winner of the GFS run appears to the the foothills/western and northern piedmont areas. The ratio's are just so high.

Actually, KFAY is the biggest winner with almost half a foot.