WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My hunch is Euro will revert to just a storm for the upper Mid-Atlantic and NE and leave us with just backside upslope snow. In other words, an anemic event with boundary temp issues. I hope my hunch is incorrect but NCEP skipped right over us laying out heavy snow threat risk and too many private forecasters feel this is an up the coast event. Probably a good thing 4 days out. It's more likely to be sheared out and give nobody snow than it is to go well north and leave us dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's more likely to be sheared out and give nobody snow than it is to go well north and leave us dry and warm. Yep. Besides, it's been what, 4 straight euro runs where we have significant snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So is the storm in the gulf or over land? Dude. The ocean storm they speak up is way up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My hunch is Euro will revert to just a storm for the upper Mid-Atlantic and NE and leave us with just backside upslope snow. In other words, an anemic event with boundary temp issues. I hope my hunch is incorrect but NCEP skipped right over us laying out heavy snow threat risk and too many private forecasters feel this is an up the coast event. Probably a good thing 4 days out. ok JB! That's what he is saying. Come on big fella, I am holding back before i get excited but trying to be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is a Loop of the 0z Nam, From TwisterData. (It is 2.8MB big so click to view it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's more likely to be sheared out and give nobody snow than it is to go well north and leave us dry and warm. Good post Wildre. Temps should not be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something no one is talking about is the prospect of this phasing even more. With that 50/50 low in place and the trend of strengthening the southern s/w, it is likely something will phase into the backside of it. If it happens too soon, a track further NW is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My concern is that it gets pushed very far south and off the coast..... bad for western NC but good for GA/SC. You can see the cold air pushing south on the nam from 72 to 78 to 84. There will likely be some losers in the whole thing as everyone has now set very loft expectations. Would really have to thread the needle to to make everyone happy. As for me, I have to drive to Orlando Sunday afternoon/Monday morning for a soccer tournament. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's more likely to be sheared out and give nobody snow than it is to go well north and leave us dry and warm. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something no one is talking about is the prospect of this phasing even more. With that 50/50 low in place and the trend of strengthening the southern s/w, it is likely something will phase into the backside of it. If it happens too soon, a track further NW is possible. I was thinking the same thing...if this thing phases early, it could definitely send it further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something no one is talking about is the prospect of this phasing even more. With that 50/50 low in place and the trend of strengthening the southern s/w, it is likely something will phase into the backside of it. If it happens too soon, a track further NW is possible. I was thinking it was gonna phase too late. You think it's gonna phase earlier than what we have seen on todays runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Dude. I'm talking about near la. Is it in the gulf or over Louisiana http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/model_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something no one is talking about is the prospect of this phasing even more. With that 50/50 low in place and the trend of strengthening the southern s/w, it is likely something will phase into the backside of it. If it happens too soon, a track further NW is possible. i am listening, and that is a good point. Something definitely to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Awesome!!! 240 User(s) are reading this topic 160 members, 76 guests, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was thinking it was gonna phase too late. You think it's gonna phase earlier than what we have seen on todays runs? The 12z euro is further NW of the 00z euro b/c it phases it more. The trend last year was for this happen even more so inside of 72 hours. Just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was thinking it was gonna phase too late. You think it's gonna phase earlier than what we have seen on todays runs? He is not thinking it will. He (or they) are saying that it is something to "watch" for. Tonight's GFS and Euro runs will be very interesting. Hoping the GFS falls more inline with the Euro solution and that the Euro does not change towards what the GFS has shown today. Fun times ahead on this roller coaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 12z euro is further NW of the 00z euro b/c it phases it more. The trend last year was for this happen even more so inside of 72 hours. Just throwing it out there. Good points! Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Something no one is talking about is the prospect of this phasing even more. With that 50/50 low in place and the trend of strengthening the southern s/w, it is likely something will phase into the backside of it. If it happens too soon, a track further NW is possible. Considering the size of the shortwave compared to the northern stream features, I really can't envision a more potent phase than what the EURO showed at 12z. I'm not saying we can't get a more intense solution, but that would require having a larger southern stream shortwave to work with in the first place. I feel that its far more likely that the Euro is on the high end of potential with its dynamical solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 From the crayon map or what? Their wording summery kept you very much in a threat. Their crayon map. Thanks for pointing out the discussion does list possible solutions for 6 to 12 inches outside of NC Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 12z euro is further NW of the 00z euro b/c it phases it more. The trend last year was for this happen even more so inside of 72 hours. Just throwing it out there. Thanks, And very good points. Last year we had the strong STJ to help us out tho. This year we have LA screw that likes to crush any southern stream wave. But i would like to see an earlier phase and a farther NW track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 12z euro is further NW of the 00z euro b/c it phases it more. The trend last year was for this happen even more so inside of 72 hours. Just throwing it out there. That would be funny, we get 35F rain Xmas night and DC north get pounded, like 10 months ago. That would be there 4th blizzard in 2010, 5th in 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That would be funny, we get 35F rain Xmas night and DC north get pounded, like 10 months ago. That would be there 4th blizzard in 2010, 5th in 12 months. No, it would not be funny at all. Anyways, hopefully, we can get the 0z GFS in our camp tonight. I know it's an outlier, but having the GFS not buying the Euro solution is still making me a bit nervous in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Considering the size of the shortwave compared to the northern stream features, I really can't envision a more potent phase than what the EURO showed at 12z. I'm not saying we can't get a more intense solution, but that would require having a larger southern stream shortwave to work with in the first place. I feel that its far more likely that the Euro is on the high end of potential with its dynamical solution. Agreed on the ultimate strength of the 12 euro as being on the high end of the scale. But the timing is what's important. If the 50/50 low is persistent in hanging on and we see the southern stream continue to trend slower, which happens sometimes. A phase sooner out over the central deep south would result in a more negative trough angle. So instead of this sfc low going from the northern GOM to HAT, it could go from New Orleans to Savannah to the eastern coastal plain. That would make a big difference for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm just laughing at these temperatures. It is SO rare for the GSP to CLT corridor to be in this good a shape at this stage of the game temp wise with a low coming out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That would be funny, we get 35F rain Xmas night and DC north get pounded, like 10 months ago. That would be there 4th blizzard in 2010, 5th in 12 months. We are in storm mode. No cross thread trolling.... Oh wait . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That would be funny, we get 35F rain Xmas night and DC north get pounded, like 10 months ago. That would be there 4th blizzard in 2010, 5th in 12 months. Don't see RDU being rain w/ any solution. It's probably either snow or sleet. Or we all get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Their crayon map. Thanks for pointing out the discussion does list possible solutions for 6 to 12 inches outside of NC Mountains Count on the crayon map showing heavy snow in parts of the SE tomorrow. They didn't know where to put it. Yesterday it was from the Ky/Tn border northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Has the NAM finished? I haven't seen anyone mention a phase or anything about suppression. NAM only goes to 84HR. Looks like it begins phasing @ 81HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Has the NAM finished? I haven't seen anyone mention a phase or anything about suppression. Yes, it finished at hr84. This is when it begins to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Has the NAM finished? I haven't seen anyone mention a phase or anything about suppression. The NAM ends at the 84hr mark. There is no talk of the system being supressed, b/c there are not any frames available after 84hrs. For now, there is no sign of that taking place, wrt the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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