rduwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it will dig south from here. notice the flow in the mid atlantic on the backside of the 50/50 low. the stj vort will have no where to go but ESE. Yep, it's starting dig south at hr 69. Never did completely close off at the 5h level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 First Allan's and now yours... is my computer cursed? hmm... try this link which is to my main page. It seems to be working for me. http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just east of the panhandle of TX at 69. Thing is Strong!! and closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hmm... try this link which is to my main page. It seems to be working for me. http://blizzard.atms...a.edu/~pppapin/ I had no problems and kudos...another great write up! Forwarded to many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Allan had a good argument against that earlier. This is starting to be a message board myth about the off hour runs being less useful. I also disagree as I have seen the 18z runs pick up on a trend that continues in successive runs so its not useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hmm... try this link which is to my main page. It seems to be working for me. http://blizzard.atms...a.edu/~pppapin/ Still says "updated Dec 4 2010", but don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just east of the panhandle of TX at 69. Thing is Strong!! and closed. Indeed sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good news for sure! GFS should start picking that up tonight Yea the gfs has been consistently weakening this minor northern stream impulse. Once its gone completely like the nam shows tonight, we should get a legitimate solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 69 it's digging towards the western Gulf. Very healty looking and the northern piece is coming in just in time it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The one thing I would be concerned about is the ocean storm. That thing is massive and IF that slows and doesnt get out of the way as quick then this s/w will be sheared out and get supressed as it would have no where to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Stop comparing off hour runs, as they lack new RAOB ingest. Compare to the 12z for a better picture of continuity and possible trends. I hear ya, But Allan kind of watered that fire earlier today, by saying that ole rule of thumb was na-say, since the 18z probably got more aircraft data ingested, even though weather balloons only got used on 0z/12z runs. He stated 6z had the least verification score compared to oz which scored the best. 12z/18z where side by side. Real interesting back several pages espeacilly in light of what we always thought to be gospel , only use 0z/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Prob useless this far out but interesting to me on the comp.reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The one thing I would be concerned about is the ocean storm. That thing is massive and IF that slows and doesnt get out of the way as quick then this s/w will be sheared out and get supressed as it would have no where to go. That's what I'm getting worried about too. The sad thing is that part of that is the storm that screwed us over this past Saturday. It'd be the gift that keeps on "giving" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 81 hr gulf low off the Tx./La. border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC has updated the 5 day precip. They are definitely not going with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 s/w holding its own quite well at 72 unlike GFS which was shearing it out already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Still says "updated Dec 4 2010", but don't worry about it. Yep just fixed that... gotta update multiple webpages at the same time... just hit refresh and it should be good Ok enough of my spam... some good looking trends on the nam tonight, although still not as closed off as the UKMET or the Euro... but still very positive signs. I am liking the stronger nature of the southern stream 500mb feature, as that is what we need to keep this from being a late phaser. I'd still like to see the nam further south, but considering how far south the UKMET is already... a compromise wouldn't be bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just compared the 84 hour NAM with the 12Z 96 hour Euro- they look pretty similar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Really no height rises along the east coast yet on the NAM so that ocean storm is certainly flexing its muscles at this point but as the Euro keeps showing it will get out of the way. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just compared the 84 hour NAM with the 12Z 96 hour Euro- they look pretty similar.... that southern stream seems to be holding up well at 84. Still very healthy and in central LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i hope its not too slow though so it will be here on christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 More to add about the ocean storm... Everyone is concerned about sampling the shortwave in the SW. Well there is no additional sampling of the ocean storm since it remains over the ocean. If the models are underestimating its strength and overall motion then this could be a big influence on what happens. THIS is more important IMO than looking at what the QPF is how many contours are closed off and if there will be convection robbing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks for giving us something else to look at. Good post. More to add about the ocean storm... Everyone is concerned about sampling the shortwave in the SW. Well there is no additional sampling of the ocean storm since it remains over the ocean. If the models are underestimating its strength and overall motion then this could be a big influence on what happens. THIS is more important IMO than looking at what the QPF is how many contours are closed off and if there will be convection robbing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So is the storm in the gulf or over land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 im in north georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My hunch is Euro will revert to just a storm for the upper Mid-Atlantic and NE and leave us with just backside upslope snow. In other words, an anemic event with boundary temp issues. I hope my hunch is incorrect but NCEP skipped right over us laying out heavy snow threat risk and too many private forecasters feel this is an up the coast event. Probably a good thing 4 days out. From the crayon map or what? Their wording summery kept you very much in a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thanks for giving us something else to look at worry about. Good post. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ocean storm is a good point (and one to worry about). We shall see what becomes of it but here is to hoping it doesn't turn the screw on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Really no height rises along the east coast yet on the NAM so that ocean storm is certainly flexing its muscles at this point but as the Euro keeps showing it will get out of the way. We will see. Actually, there is some slight ridging inland from the EC at 84 hours. Not as much as the 18z or 12z (neither had a great deal, TBH), but it's there nonetheless. Also, the Newfoundland vortex is definitely moving NE on the NAM. Over the course of 12-18 hours it moves from SW of Newfoundland to ENE of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My hunch is Euro will revert to just a storm for the upper Mid-Atlantic and NE and leave us with just backside upslope snow. In other words, an anemic event with boundary temp issues. I hope my hunch is incorrect but NCEP skipped right over us laying out heavy snow threat risk and too many private forecasters feel this is an up the coast event. Probably a good thing 4 days out. You must have missed this: CHRISTMAS DAY SNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. You know, from GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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