WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through 30 hrs, deeper and more consolidated (i.e. just south) of the 12z. A little slower compared to the 12z GFS, and much stronger, thanks to the size of the grid square. 24hrs is a closed 552dm H5 low into S Cal just N of the Mexico boarder! Euro-ish Sorry, relying on NCEP, asked for a SV package for X-Mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A little slower at 42. The vort has grown in this run compare the same time on the 18Z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 42 hrs... everything a smidge more wester or SW... but pretty consistent here. s/w is still stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 42 hrs... everything a smidge more wester or SW... but pretty consistent here. s/w is still stronger. Looks like it might try and dig a little into mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Without mowing over hundreds of posts, let me just ask, anyone concerned about convection after this little monster churns past the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I dont see this being much slower than any nam run I have seen today. In fact it looks like the Euro so far. Folks need to stop cliff diving. This is still only potential anyway so things will change and shift around a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through 30 hrs, deeper and more consolidated (i.e. just south) of the 12z. A little slower compared to the 12z GFS, and much stronger, thanks to the size of the grid square. 24hrs is a closed 552dm H5 low into S Cal just N of the Mexico boarder! Euro-ish Sorry, relying on NCEP, asked for a SV package for X-Mas go to twisterdata.com they are up to 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sorry to be so behind, but what is the significance of the message from the SR. NCEP folks...and why did it say FFC and BMX wetbulbing issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah. That came up today. I will worry about that if the system is rolling on Friday night Without mowing over hundreds of posts, let me just ask, anyone concerned about convection after this little monster churns past the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i'm back after helping my dad kill a huge bat in their downstairs. OMG that was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sorry to be so behind, but what is the significance of the message from the SR. NCEP folks...and why did it say FFC and BMX wetbulbing issue? What message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here are my latest thoughts... pending what the 00z models decide to show. http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just stating that the NAM was rolling with no issues... What message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah. That came up today. I will worry about that if the system is rolling on Friday night Wow come on guys.. no reason to worry about convection right now. If you have a deepening low off the Atlantic with height falls aloft, realize no convection will rob that moisture flow into the cold conveyor belt of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here are my latest thoughts... pending what the 00z models decide to show. http://blizzard.atms...apin/local.html First Allan's and now yours... is my computer cursed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 AT 57 its closed and heading into the TEX panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Without mowing over hundreds of posts, let me just ask, anyone concerned about convection after this little monster churns past the GOM? We really can't get into that yet. That is always a concern with any winter storm that needs a Gulf Connection to draw in moisture. Its very easy to get a large MCS that robs moisture further upstream. Of course as strongwxnc said, lets worry about that in due time... sometime on Friday or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 AT 57 its closed and heading into the TEX panhandle. You sneaky fast! Needs to start digging at 66 imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Agreed, would like to see digging soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its way ahead of 18z position at 54 hours by about 150 miles futher east. 18z was back in AZ @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its way ahead of 18z position at 54 hours by about 150 miles futher east. Looks slower to me. Check out the 500mb vort. I think you have your times mixed up. Check out hr60 of last run instead of hr48 compared to hr54 of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 63 the low is just about to close off at the 500mb level on the Tx./Ok. border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just looking at H5 packet placement at 54hrs compared to the 12z run, and 12z GFS, this is going to be a good run! Way to energetic and diving to be affected as much by the northern stream as the global is showing. Could be wrong, just mo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its way ahead of 18z position at 54 hours by about 150 miles futher east. 18z was back in AZ @ 48 compare to 60 not 48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'd like to also add the northern stream feature that seems to be causing an early phase with the gfs is almost non-existent on the nam, so we should see a later phase similar to the Euro and UKMET solutions. This feature has been weakening per the model runs even on the nam, to the point it really hardly exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it will dig south from here. notice the flow in the mid atlantic on the backside of the 50/50 low. the stj vort will have no where to go but ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Its way ahead of 18z position at 54 hours by about 150 miles futher east. 18z was back in AZ @ 48 Stop comparing off hour runs, as they lack new RAOB ingest. Compare to the 12z for a better picture of continuity and possible trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'd like to also add the northern stream feature that seems to be causing an early phase with the gfs is almost non-existent on the nam, so we should see a later phase similar to the Euro and UKMET solutions. This feature has been weakening per the model runs even on the nam, to the point it really hardly exists Good news for sure! GFS should start picking that up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Stop comparing off hour runs, as they lack new RAOB ingest. Compare to the 12z for a better picture of continuity and possible trends. Allan had a good argument against that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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