Christmas Storm III

[WXinCanton]

even at 6 hrs, NAM is stronger and further SW a tad compared with 18z

yeah, looks south of the border

[Weather Czar]

At 15 it's really digging off the so cal coast. Very storng vort.

[strongwxnc]

Stronger and deeper at 18. S of the 18 postion

even at 6 hrs, NAM is stronger and further SW a tad compared with 18z

[Rankin5150]

I see that the SE thread is gaining a lot of love tonight:

190 User(s) are reading this topic

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[ST21]

also the high pressure is a tad bit further south.

[Weather Czar]

LOL At 21 the southern vort is coming ashore in Baja!

[packfan98]

I didn't see any discussion of the 18z GFS ensembles. There is a ton of variability. Makes me think that the operational is in for big changes on future runs. A couple of members wrap up a good storm while more are progressive and OTS missing the phase. One member (n001) looks eerily similar to the EURO with in its track, intensity and much slower timing than the other members. Here's a link:

18z gfs ensemble members

[strongwxnc]

Yes. And it is stronger than the 18 prog

LOL At 21 the southern vort is coming ashore in Baja!

[WeatherNC]

even at 6 hrs, NAM is stronger and further SW a tad compared with 18z

NAM is going to be stronger into S Cal @ H5 from what I am seeing through 12 hrs compared to the 12z run, maybe just a touch slower but not much. Similar to the 12z GFS at 500mb at the same time (12z 12/22), but do to the better resolution, much more colorful.

[Cold Rain]

LOL At 21 the southern vort is coming ashore in Baja!

Any chance that if it keeps being modeled farther south coming ashore that that will have negative consequences down the road in terms of more prone to being suppressed?

[Weather Czar]

NAM is going to be stronger into S Cal @ H5 from what I am seeing through 12 hrs compared to the 12z run, maybe just a touch slower but not much. Similar to the 12z GFS at 500mb at the same time (12z 12/22), but do to the better resolution, much more colorful.

At 27 it has one heck of a vort at the AZ so CAL Mexico border.

[Weather Czar]

Any chance that if it keeps being modeled farther south coming ashore that that will have negative consequences down the road in terms of more prone to being suppressed?

I was just thinking that same thing. Im not sure, I think with it being so strong and the north atlantic low getting out of the way in time its ok.

[Cold Rain]

I was just thinking that same thing. Im not sure, I think with it being so strong and the north atlantic low getting out of the way in time its ok.

Cool. I hope so. I like stronger though.

[Cheeznado]

NAM is going to be stronger into S Cal @ H5 from what I am seeing through 12 hrs compared to the 12z run, maybe just a touch slower but not much. Similar to the 12z GFS at 500mb at the same time (12z 12/22), but do to the better resolution, much more colorful.

Actually the strength is similar, the main difference is that the 00Z run is a fair bit south and slightly slower.

[strongwxnc]

I think the issue will come in once it gets into TX. We it shear and get ate up by the N stream? Maybe not tap the GOM.

I do not know or can comment on it. Me no met

I was just thinking that same thing. Im not sure, I think with it being so strong and the north atlantic low getting out of the way in time its ok.

[NCSNOW]

I want to see where the Nam sits at hour 66 tonight. Is it closed off and on the red river TX/OK, then head SE toward the LA/Ark border. Been pretty consistent and right in line with euro up to this point. Its got out of the blocks stronger than 18z fro sure.

[Cheeznado]

I was just thinking that same thing. Im not sure, I think with it being so strong and the north atlantic low getting out of the way in time its ok.

I was also going to warn of this possibility- the UKMET scenario might come to pass if this is too slow/far south. This is a very fine line we are walking.

[Wow]

at 30, a little slower... a tad bit more SW

[phil882]

so you are going with the phase occurring a little later? GSP has made a comment about heavy snow in the Mountains and foothills today. I do no recall if it was in the morning or afternoon. Good map as we stand now....

Thats my thinking. The trend has been established, and I don't see any reason for this to continue to some degree. Areas to the west of the "heavy snow" demarcation certainly have a chance to get in on the heavy snow action, but that is my most confident area at this time, given the fact that the models have this region under the heaviest precip bullseye right now, and any later phasing would still favor this region to receive the heaviest precipitation amounts at the low rides up the coastline.

I appreciate your thoughts and especially your map! 0z runs will be important imo.

Yes, but considering we are still 4.5-5 days out means a lot can change with this event. We should have a much firmer grasp on what could happen by Thursday or Friday. As impressive as it looks, its really a huge timing issue, and minor changes could be the difference between a major snowstorm or a non-event.

[Weather Czar]

I was also going to warn of this possibility- the UKMET scenario might come to pass if this is too slow/far south. This is a very fine line we are walking.

That has been my worry too.

[MillzPirate]

Seems like we've been 5 days out for the past 2 weeks. Is this ever going to get closer?

[Wow]

cutoff 558 contour at 33 hrs centered over Vegas. it's a potent little s/w, which should help resist any shearing from the northern jet

[POWERSTROKE]

That has been my worry too.

this is why I can't get excited until thursday. Not good when we have a fine line to stay in.

[WidreMann]

Seems like we've been 5 days out for the past 2 weeks. Is this ever going to get closer?

It is getting closer. The first part of the event is now in NAM range and has been since this morning. The Euro isn't significantly slower, though it has pushed it back by 6-12 hours from the original onset (unlikely to end up being true). We haven't had this kind of model consistency for any storm this winter.

[ST21]

more precip in southern texas on the 0z than the 18z run.

[Weather Czar]

At 39 still closed off over central AZ. Good ridging out ahead of it.

[strongwxnc]

Cool. I was worried about that. That is wound up at 36 and a little slower and and SW.

cutoff 558 contour at 33 hrs centered over Vegas. it's a potent little s/w, which should help resist any shearing from the northern jet

[tnweathernut]

I was also going to warn of this possibility- the UKMET scenario might come to pass if this is too slow/far south. This is a very fine line we are walking.

I am not a met, but I have been saying this and thinking this all day. It's a real possibility or so it seems. Perfect phases don't happen all the time. I have noticed over the years............ a lot more miss than hit.

[WidreMann]

more precip in southern texas on the 0z than the 18z run.

Not worth worrying about the lightest shade of green.

[WidreMann]

I am not a met, but I have been saying this and thinking this all day. It's a real possibility or so it seems. Perfect phases don't happen all the time. I have noticed over the years............ a lot more miss than hit.

I don't think we have to get a perfect phase to get snow of some significance. If we want a major storm, sure. But to pick up a few inches with the cold air in place, a weak low riding the gulf-stream would probably still do okay for the piedmont. The NW trend will guarantee that much at least.