georgiawx11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Thx for keeping it real and bringing me back to reality...back to very low expectations now! Look forward to hearing you on the show Better to have low expectations and end up with more than expected than to have high expectations and end up with less !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Over the past several years, I have used paint to make "call" maps on occasion. This year, I am trying something new and using powerpoint. After I got the hang of it, it went pretty quickly. Not even going to go after amounts at this stage, just % chance of seeing accumulating sn atm and trying to nail down slp placement. Should of thrown a 10% and isolated 30% hatch in for TN, but still learning how to blend the boxes and it would have not looked puerty. This was based on a blend of the 12z GGEM ens mean, ECMWF ens mean, and GFS ens mean, with respect to surface placement, strength, and timing, with a small lean towards the EC but not much. Chances were also based on these 3 means. Still learning, so if it sucks, tell me... Powerpoint? Awesome. Didn't know you could edit images in ppt! I use photoshop, which is pretty simple and the smooth colors look nice...it looks like Jeremy uses photoshop. Anyway, love the 50% over RDU...thanks for the prelim. It will be interesting what the 0z ECMWF says tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WeatherNC. I like the map too, but I am square in the crosshairs....and it's Tuesday night. Isn't that like the Sports Illustrated cover kiss-of-death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone have qpf for eastern nc for the last gfs run? No where near a computer. I'm assuming it would be a decent run here 0.23" at PGV, all SN according to thickness data Powerpoint? Awesome. Didn't know you could edit images in ppt! I use photoshop, which is pretty simple and the smooth colors look nice...it looks like Jeremy uses photoshop. Anyway, love the 50% over RDU...thanks for the prelim. It will be interesting what the 0z ECMWF says tonight. I have CS3, and use photoshop to edit pictures, but it is on the PC like most of my other software, L2A and PP included. My TO weapon is the Macbook Pro, so I tend not to get on the PC all that much (as it is a desktop and in the master bedroom). Thanks for the heads up though, I will start screwing around with PS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Welcome. http://www.daculawea...odel_update.php Bookmark that. What time tonight are the next model runs? and what are they? That was quick.. To those lurking (I cannot see who is online as we are in Storm Mode) Please use the above link to know what times the next runs will happen. Also, you stand a greater chance of your post staying on the thread if you are new, by introducing yourself first, add a little something, then ask your questions. Word to the wise please review the Storm Mode link at the top of the main page. Welcome all guests~~~!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here are some of my preliminary thoughts in a map... I am writing up a discussion on my website which will be out in a bit. Will update when that occurs. I really feel like folks in Raleigh are really sitting pretty with this system thus far, although a lot can change in 5 days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 To all who have provide analysis, insight, maps, forecasts, etc., I just wanted to say thank you for taking the time to do it....WeatherNC, Phil, eyewall, foothills, raleigh, etc., you guys are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 so you are going with the phase occurring a little later? GSP has made a comment about heavy snow in the Mountains and foothills today. I do no recall if it was in the morning or afternoon. Good map as we stand now.... Here are some of my preliminary thoughts in a map... I am writing up a discussion on my website which will be out in a bit. Will update when that occurs. I really feel like folks in Raleigh are really sitting pretty with this system thus far, although a lot can change in 5 days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This was posted earlier: Has anyone else noticed the odd "jump" to the NW on the 12z Canadian at 06z on Saturday? It skips a frame, and then when it phases with the northern stream it has regressed! That seems highly implausible to me. 12z: http://raleighwx.ame...rtGGEMLoop.html 00z: http://raleighwx.ame...rtGGEMLoop.html Am I missing something here, or is that bogus? It looks like a jump to me and as he said it would impact the position of the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here are some of my preliminary thoughts in a map... I am writing up a discussion on my website which will be out in a bit. Will update when that occurs. I really feel like folks in Raleigh are really sitting pretty with this system thus far, although a lot can change in 5 days time. I appreciate your thoughts and especially your map! 0z runs will be important imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 so you are going with the phase occurring a little later? GSP has made a comment about heavy snow in the Mountains and foothills today. I do no recall if it was in the morning or afternoon. Good map as we stand now.... About what time EST time is this wave supposed to come on shore tomorrow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I was just being greedy. If I am going to plow snow I want it my backyard not down east. Of course there is another big contractor on here that wants in toward the east so continue the good work I left myself out of the 50% hatch btw, as we may have a warm nose to contend with in the Coastal Plain... Not trying to be subjective here, rather object based on the guidance I have looked at, namely the big 3 ens means over the past 24 hrs. If we get dumped on, I will pm you my address for a little check to clear the drive... edit: got to the two words mixed, fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anybody know where I can get my hands on a good DGEX snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anybody know where I can get my hands on a good DGEX snow map? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Awesome, thanks everyone! I forgot Allan had it on his sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This was posted earlier: Has anyone else noticed the odd "jump" to the NW on the 12z Canadian at 06z on Saturday? It skips a frame, and then when it phases with the northern stream it has regressed! That seems highly implausible to me. 12z: http://raleighwx.ame...rtGGEMLoop.html 00z: http://raleighwx.ame...rtGGEMLoop.html Am I missing something here, or is that bogus? It looks like a jump to me and as he said it would impact the position of the upper level low. Missing the 84 hr panel from what I can see, this is the one from the CMC and matches up to the gap, both before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 DGEX snowfall maps are notoriously awful, so I wouldn't worry about them too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Missing the 84 hr panel from what I can see, this is the one from the CMC and matches up to the gap, both before and after. Ok thank you that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 DGEX snowfall maps are notoriously awful, so I wouldn't worry about them too much. don't worry about them at all. 0 . nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 DGEX snowfall maps are notoriously awful, so I wouldn't worry about them too much. Yeah, you're right. I just wanted to see what it was showing. I assumed not much since nobody posted it. It's a couple of inches or so for most of NC...not the worst Christmas present ever, but not the storm of the century like the Euro is showing. I'd like to see a snowfall map of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the storm of the century like the Euro is showing. I'd like to see a snowfall map of that. 18z run on 12/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Mama Mia! Wish that DGEX could verify. 3 days old what he posted, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z run on 12/18 Haha! I remember you posting that in the first thread. That's a good map to look at. It hasn't had anything as extreme since. Storms like this one has the potential to be are just not modeled consistently for days in advance. They mostly sneak up on us. Wouldn't it be something if the Euro just kept this solution all the way through and then the other models started latching on? I have no illusions that will happen, but that would...I mean, how could we ever top that (assuming it panned out)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM's rollin'. Who's got this tonight? NCEP Operational Status MessageWed Dec 22 01:34:57 2010 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 220134 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0133Z WED DEC 22 2010 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 12 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... FFC/72215 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 746-617 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. BMX/72230 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 805-791 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. RNK/72318 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 743-720 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. GDH/04320 - PURGED ALL DWPTS...BAD DATA. OME/70200 - MISSED THE NAM. ASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM. ANN/70398 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM's rollin'. Who's got this tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 BTW, Robert and Allan are going to be on the radio show tonight at 10:30 PM (there's a notice at the top). I'll be sure to tune in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This NAM 84hr should be getting into precip over Tenn/Ga, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM's rollin'. Who's got this tonight? I nominate WOW & NC Weather, since Robert and Allan are gettting on radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 even at 6 hrs, NAM is stronger and further SW a tad compared with 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At h12, a little further south and west with it. Stronger also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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