eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So my thoughts remain unchanged at this time except for slower timing as I said before 18z GFS was somewhat of an improvement but as mentioned the s/w gets sheared out by an agressive northern stream. I suppose this isn't impossible but I am hoping unlikely. Even still the GFS was in the right direction with the low and quick hitter with a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z UKMET similar to 12z EURO at day 3 slower than the GFS HPC discounted the Ukie for being an "outlier in several areas" at 12z. I wonder if it can be considered in upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 HPC discounted the Ukie for being an "outlier in several areas" at 12z. I wonder if it can be considered in upcoming runs. It is an outlier because of its very far south placement at 96 hours. Through 72 hours it doesnt look like an outlier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks. Trust me, it's not that me and sean think we're badasses now but these threads will NOT go down the same road we went down last year. Don't worry......we are in agreement with you. The temporary Mods are doing a wonderful job at keeping things on track. Kudos to you and all the Mods....... Now, back to model watching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is an outlier because of its very far south placement at 96 hours. Through 72 hours it doesnt look like an outlier to me. It's been pretty locked with the Euro on the progression of the wave across the continent from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is an outlier because of its very far south placement at 96 hours. Through 72 hours it doesnt look like an outlier to me. Yeah that makes sense and it looks in line to 72 in my view as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At least one local met is sounding the possibility of snow on christmas. More will jump aboard if the models continue to look good through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 HPC discounted the Ukie for being an "outlier in several areas" at 12z. I wonder if it can be considered in upcoming runs. It's a dead match on the s/w placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow really? Eric Thomas usually is a local met I have some respect for. He called the 2004 storm about 4 days early and he was right on. I'm surprised he's not on board yet. Well, truly I won't be comfortable until the GFS gives in. Hopefully by tomorrow we'll have a general model consensus; not perfect but general. wouldnt that be a "safe" call as a broadcast guy? Wouldnt it be easier to up totals later in the week, than to predict huge totals now, then back off? Makes sense to this layman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just for those of us (like me) keeping score at home. We've had four good EURO runs (fairly consistent) in a row now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just for those of us (like me) keeping score at home. We've had four good EURO runs (fairly consistent) in a row now, right? Yes by my count as well and 4 decent runs of the canadian. 2 better runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Over the past several years, I have used paint to make "call" maps on occasion. This year, I am trying something new and using powerpoint. After I got the hang of it, it went pretty quickly. Not even going to go after amounts at this stage, just % chance of seeing accumulating sn atm and trying to nail down slp placement. Should of thrown a 10% and isolated 30% hatch in for TN, but still learning how to blend the boxes and it would have not looked puerty. This was based on a blend of the 12z GGEM ens mean, ECMWF ens mean, and GFS ens mean, with respect to surface placement, strength, and timing, with a small lean towards the EC but not much. Chances were also based on these 3 means. Still learning, so if it sucks, tell me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yes by my count as well and 4 decent runs of the canadian. 2 better runs of the GFS 00z will be a huge run. If the GFS comes around at 00z I'll be extremely confident in our chances. Itll be tough for the euro to top what it showed last night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's a dead match on the s/w placement Yes it is which is why I was trying to figure out their reasoning for discounting it but Allan explained it. But yes s/w placement seems in general consensus to me for 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Over the past several years, I have used paint to make "call" maps on occasion. This year, I am trying something new and using powerpoint. After I got the hang of it, it went pretty quickly. Not even going to go after amounts at this stage, just % chance of seeing accumulating sn atm and trying to nail down slp placement. Should of thrown a 10% and isolated 30% hatch in for TN, but still learning how to blend the boxes and it would have not looked puerty. This was based on a blend of the 12z GGEM ens mean, ECMWF ens mean, and GFS ens mean, with respect to surface placement, strength, and timing, with a small lean towards the EC but not much. Chances were also based on these 3 means. Still learning, so if it sucks, tell me... I like the looks of this outlook with exception of a 10% blob embedded within the 50% over my area . I am kidding of course that is a reasonable call at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Over the past several years, I have used paint to make "call" maps on occasion. This year, I am trying something new and using powerpoint. After I got the hang of it, it went pretty quickly. Not even going to go after amounts at this stage, just % chance of seeing accumulating sn atm and trying to nail down slp placement. Should of thrown a 10% and isolated 30% hatch in for TN, but still learning how to blend the boxes and it would have not looked puerty. This was based on a blend of the 12z GGEM ens mean, ECMWF ens mean, and GFS ens mean, with respect to surface placement, strength, and timing, with a small lean towards the EC but not much. Chances were also based on these 3 means. Still learning, so if it sucks, tell me... Not bad at all for a prelim! I'd take it right now but i'm sure it will be changing in the next 3 days hopefully it all shifts SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Over the past several years, I have used paint to make "call" maps on occasion. This year, I am trying something new and using powerpoint. After I got the hang of it, it went pretty quickly. Not even going to go after amounts at this stage, just % chance of seeing accumulating sn atm and trying to nail down slp placement. Should of thrown a 10% and isolated 30% hatch in for TN, but still learning how to blend the boxes and it would have not looked puerty. This was based on a blend of the 12z GGEM ens mean, ECMWF ens mean, and GFS ens mean, with respect to surface placement, strength, and timing, with a small lean towards the EC but not much. Chances were also based on these 3 means. Still learning, so if it sucks, tell me... That looks very reasonable, given the spread in the models. GA folks are on the line, this far out.. Now if the euro shows the same thursday and friday and the low is 10mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 00z will be a huge run. If the GFS comes around at 00z I'll be extremely confident in our chances. Itll be tough for the euro to top what it showed last night though. Me too, but I'll equate that only to half time in a ball game, being up well in score with everything clicking. The second half will be the modeling performance that takes place after the system reaches California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, Atlanta has a 10% chance of seeing accumulating snow ? Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well good evening, folks! Now that I am home and can post (thanks, Work, for only taking 2 weeks to block this site. ), I will say that I am not discouraged one bit from the GFS's refusal to show a major snowstorm (although I'm quite sure that the OLD GFS would have thrown us a bone by now). I liked the Euro run, but really, how many times have we seen such a modeled scenario come to pass when modeled from such a long way out? Rarely. I don't expect it to verify in this case either. Having said that, I would not be surprised one bit by the GFS taking 1 - 2 more days before it shows us anything significant. I would further not be surprised if the Euro lived up to its moniker of Dr. No for a few runs. I am very surprised that it's held onto this solution for 4 straight runs. That simply cannot continue, can it? The perfect phasing of two very poorly sampled shortwaves can't be accurately predicted at this time range, can it? The Euro gives us a best case scenario. The GFS musters a few flakes. The Ukie deviated and went south. The Canadian backed off it's earlier depictions too. All of this is expected and will continue for a while, given the setup. I've said from the very beginning, that the most important thing that we have going for us that we haven't in a long, long time (and certainly not around any Christmas that I remember) is that we have all the players on the field AND, AND in the same vicinity for something special to happen. Don't worry. It will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That looks very reasonable, given the spread in the models. GA folks are on the line, this far out.. Now if the euro shows the same thursday and friday and the low is 10mb stronger needs to shift west a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is accumulating snow defined as an inch or more? I read that earlier...1" that's all, not too much to ask for is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, Atlanta has a 10% chance of seeing accumulating snow ? Not good at all. This is on the 26th, we will have been plastered on Christmas................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is on the 26th, we will have been plastered on Christmas................ yep thats why I need a shift west, iIam in the 30% has best chances in the east. I am sure if euro verifies we all will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I like the looks of this outlook with exception of a 10% blob embedded within the 50% over my area . I am kidding of course that is a reasonable call at this time. Still learning how to do this crap in pp, which makes for a much better presentation, but only to those who are seasoned in it. In all seriousness, after looking over all the guidance, I am leaning towards an OTS solution that leaves most of the MA and NE out of it, except for the Cape and N NE. Thinking the phasing may take place a little to late to wrap it up along the EC. Not good news if that happens for those to our north, but the chances of some of these EC op solutions verifying is a 1:50 year event, if not more, as it crushes the SE --> NE. The GFS is still not handling the southern stream like the other models, and it is interesting that that UK is ultra suppressed as NCEP says if the GFS shows phasing between the streams, check the UKMET. Obviously a big disconnect there. An OTS solution would also fit into the climo for SE winter storms in general. Still a lot of time left, but by Thursday night, we should have a firm handle on this one way or another. Looking forward to the show tonight and plan on calling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone have qpf for eastern nc for the last gfs run? No where near a computer. I'm assuming it would be a decent run here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 needs to shift west a little I thought about that, through western NC and TN, maybe do to some overrunning from Gulf Moisture, but once the coastal picks up, influx is from the ATL, and if the phase happens a little late, like I am currently thinking, we could see a precipitous drop off in E TN and W NC, W SC and N GA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Will we be able to listen to the radio show at a later time or better yet, will it be recorded and where would we be able to listen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Just for those of us (like me) keeping score at home. We've had four good EURO runs (fairly consistent) in a row now, right? Yes, which makes it more bizarre that Met James Spann in Birmingham said the Euro was now coming into line with the GFS and NAM. Do what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I thought about that, through western NC and TN, maybe do to some overrunning from Gulf Moisture, but once the coastal picks up, influx is from the ATL, and if the phase happens a little late, like I am currently thinking, we could see a precipitous drop off in E TN and W NC, W SC and N GA too. Thx for keeping it real and bringing me back to reality...back to very low expectations now! Look forward to hearing you on the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.