Christmas Storm III

[beanskip]

Boy -- the GFS goes well OTS, too. Euro makes everybody happy, GFS makes everybody blue.

I swear -- if this is the ONE time when the GFS is right and the Euro is wrong ..... :gun_bandana: :gun_bandana:

[Wow]

This is so predictable with the GFS in this time range wrt weakening the southern wave too quickly. After a while it'll suddenly figure it out, probably within 60-72 hrs

[Carvers Gap]

Ok, i am going to go ahead and say it for our TN bretheren and sisters (if there are any). We need this to phase a little sooner than depicted on the Euro, otherwise we are going to be looking at flurries while south and east of here you are plastered. This has been on my mind since last nights UKIE went way south. I think that's the bigger threat (for our area anyway).

Time will tell.

Yep. We are on the outside looking in at this point. Just no other way to put it. However, we'll have a better picture once this feature is on North American soil. Most definitely, I don't like being in the bullseye this far out. That is a positive. Will the southward trend stop - let's hope for everyone's sake? I just have a difficult time thinking this thing bolts almost due north after hitting Florida. My guess, for what it is worth, is that the SLP will track a bit further north after forming near Louisiana. However, the UKMET gives me pause. That solution would be bad for all w/ its way south solution. It seemed to sniff this pattern out to begin with. This time tomorrow, we will most likely know. The trends for the 0z models and 12z models tomorrow will tip the hand I feel. In my opinion, this will have to track through SE GA and the coastal plain of SC for E TN to have a chance. SE TN may benefit from this. With downsloping here, I am like you...this Euro solution was not good for TN. It may wind up being a bitter pill to swallow.

[strongwxnc]

Great insight Phil. Makes sense that we want this to take place.

The big feature to watch is the northern stream interaction, which start the phase much earlier and keep the southern stream s/w further north and weaker. There was strong interaction by 72 hours on the 12z gfs... but thus far it seems that the northern stream s/w hasn't dug down as much as it did on the 12z run so we might see a slightly better solution.

Edit: Sorry it took me a while to make the .gif. The solution still goes to crap, but its making baby steps towards the Euro and Ukmet.

[DopplerWx]

GFS is slowly becoming the Euro. It's like a hulk transformation that lasts for days.

Agreed. The past two runs the GFS has gone further south. Just because it doesn't phase doesn't mean its a bad run. It is slowly coming around, 00z tonight should be a huge run.

[Shawn]

Honestly the new GFS was a big step to the right direction. It's most likely playing catch-up for now, and will figure it out as we get closer and it has more data to work with!

[Lookout]

GFS is more suppressed, weaker, less QPF. Widespread dusting to maybe an inch for far N GA/AL, TN, northern half of SC and most of NC.

Actually I don't think it's even that in north Ga. Soundings look a bit too warm, especially the low levels. Colder in the carolinas though. It has shifted the surface low a good hundred miles further south it seems. But honestly, who cares..it's the 18z gfs.

[georgiawx11]

Actually I don't think it's even that in north Ga. Soundings look a bit too warm, especially the low levels. Colder in the carolinas though. It has shifted the surface low a good hundred miles further south it seems. But honestly, who cares..it's the 18z gfs.

Isnt that good that it has shifted the low 100 miles further south ?

[dsaur]

What part of GA does "far" better than AL ? James Spann covers all of Central AL including areas near Atlanta ( right on the GA border).

Don't worry...if Atl. gets a dusting you'll get a double dusting. Carrollton always does well with these things. T

[burgertime]

No it wasn't the Euro was much better. Not even close. Euro had about two inches at HSV, the GFS had maybe a dusting.

From the QPF it looked like N Al faired much better on the GFS but perhaps I was looking at MS. I just glanced at both. Having an off day today.

[Cheeznado]

It does bother me a bit that the GFS is so adamant in its suckitude- If the 00Z run does not budge much my worries will grow even more. It has been my experience that when the two major models tangle like this with no give on either side the result often ends up in the middle. Time for a break- on to the 00Z runs!

[GaStorm]

Actually I don't think it's even that in north Ga. Soundings look a bit too warm, especially the low levels. Colder in the carolinas though. It has shifted the surface low a good hundred miles further south it seems. But honestly, who cares..it's the 18z gfs.

DT and some other mets I think don't even look at 18z runs of the GFS. I think it has to do with the amount of time between the 12z runs not sure?

[Lookout]

What part of GA does "far" better than AL ? James Spann covers all of Central AL including areas near Atlanta ( right on the GA border).

Sigh...everywhere. Look, you need to read more and post less. It's been discussed in multiple posts all day what has been shown on the euro. Some of these questions by you and a few others are just silly because most are already answered in the thread. Flooding the thread with questions like this only frustrates people. Read more carefully and think before you post please.

[DopplerWx]

It does bother me a bit that the GFS is so adamant in its suckitude- If the 00Z run does not budge much my worries will grow even more. It has been my experience that when the two major models tangle like this with no give on either side the result often ends up in the middle. Time for a break- on to the 00Z runs!

Didnt 18z budge a good bit from the 12z run though? Seems like the GFS is waffling from run to run while the euro seems consistent aside from the timing of the phase. But if 00z phases it like the euro did we will all be singing its praises. GFS takes the low on a good path I think, its just a matter if the northern stream is going to be as strong as the GFS depicts it and if it phases perfectly.

[ncgolfguy]

Eric Thomas just said if everthing goes perfect Charlotte area could get an inch or two. Wow?

[BullCityWx]

I just had to delete a post containing pay maps from accuwx pro...please dont post anything other than public domain maps guys.

[Lookout]

I just had to delete a post containing pay maps from accuwx pro...please dont post anything other than public domain maps guys.

Ha, was just about to post the same thing. Folks, do NOT post maps from accuweather or any other pay service site. They will be deleted.

[burgertime]

Eric Thomas just said if everthing goes perfect Charlotte area could get an inch or two. Wow?

Well for most people on Christmas that would be perfect especially for CLT. I'm sure he'll start honking if it's still on the table Thursday.

[RaleighWx]

The 12z op ECMWF run is likely too extreme, BUT, the ECMWF has greater resolution and a much better track record with phasing major east coast winter storms.

With that said, I would feel better if another model had as extreme of a solution. The UKMET is close but seems way too far south. The GGEM is better than the GFS but just a moderate event for many. The ECMWF Ensemble has a similar track to the op ECMWF, but the ens mean precip is 0.5 to 0.75 for the eastern Carolinas, more for the OUter Banks, and 0.25 to 0.5 for much of the southeast, so that means if there are some members that are showing a big event there are just as many showing a lighter event.

I dont feel confident one way or the other since the data is still not well sampled. I think we see a convergence of the models with tomorrow's 00z runs or the 12z runs on Thursday at the latest. My hunch is something in between. Hopefully all of us will at least some snow on Christmas, this is the best chance of a widespread white christmas in the southeast in years.

[strongwxnc]

Eyewall has a map posted at his site about were he "thinks" it might set up...

But call map...No going to happen until Late Thursday...imo

I wish someone would come up with a possible map on here. Thanks

[DixieBlizzard]

Eric Thomas just said if everthing goes perfect Charlotte area could get an inch or two. Wow?

I don't know Eric Thomas but maybe he has convinced himself that one or two inches is perfect?

I am looking forward to Thursday. All players should be in position and we will see who wins this battle of the model runs. Plenty of time for celebration and cliff diving between now and then. We just need nice phase and everyone will be at least somewhat happy to ecstatic.

[Rankin5150]

The 18Z GFS looks to trend better for our areas, albeit lighter. However, I will take one or two inches of snow on Christmas day. I still remember I live in a spot (southwest of CLT) that climatoligically does not receive big ticket snows anyway. Hence, I have since day one set my expectations very low and if we end up with a few inches, then the expectation is exceeded and I am an even more happier camper.

[RaleighWx]

I also wanted to address the 6z/18z comments on here.

Many comments degredating the 18z/6z GFS are based on an assertion that since there are none or very few raobs (upper air balloon launches) at those times as opposed to 00z/12z that those model runs are going to be worse. However, the GFS also gets aircraft data (ACARS), and satellite wind estimates, so there is no big lack of data that makes those runs crap. In fact the 18z run usually has the most data in it of any other run during the day due to the most aircraft in the sky at that time. The 6z would likely have the least data.

There is usually very little difference between all 4 cycles of the runs with large scale verification studies. I do recall seeing that on average the most accurage run is the 00z run which would make sense since there is still a large volume of aircraft in flight, and you have soundings as well.

[DopplerWx]

Thanks, can you get him to possibly post it, or tell me where to look? Thanks

www.sandhillswx.com

his website.

[HWY316wx]

It is funny to me how Dr. No has lost it's title to the GFS. Last year the GFS was our friend and Dr. No was evil.

Unless I am completely wrong did the GFS not handle the last two systems rather well?

Looking forward to the radio show tonight, although the last radio show in March brought 7" of snow and only 1" stuck.

[SnowNiner]

Eric Thomas just said if everthing goes perfect Charlotte area could get an inch or two. Wow?

Wow really? Eric Thomas usually is a local met I have some respect for. He called the 2004 storm about 4 days early and he was right on. I'm surprised he's not on board yet. Well, truly I won't be comfortable until the GFS gives in. Hopefully by tomorrow we'll have a general model consensus; not perfect but general.

[DopplerWx]

It is funny to me how Dr. No has lost it's title to the GFS. Last year the GFS was our friend and Dr. No was evil.

Unless I am completely wrong did the GFS not handle the last two systems rather well?

Looking forward to the radio show tonight, although the last radio show in March brought 7" of snow and only 1" stuck.

None of the models really handled the last system well, mostly because, as someone pointed out earlier, that it had so many moving parts and it was really tough for the models to nail down specifics.

[BullCityWx]

Can anyone tell me why the page numbers arent updating on the thread preview?

[The Colonel]

I just had to delete a post containing pay maps from accuwx pro...please dont post anything other than public domain maps guys.

lol - when did Amex institude the "Scarlet Letter Policy". You're one step away from having to wear a sandwich board on the corner and apologize.

[jburns]

I remember in March 2009 we had about 5 inches of snow fall and about an inch stuck. What does it take to get snow to stick in March ? We even had like 2 hours of thundersnow and it still wasn't sticking. I couldn't believe it.

High snow rate. Nighttime is a big help as well.