burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gonna have to watch the next few frames and see if it tries to pop anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's not puzzling at all. he is talking about north Alabama. So you're saying the ECMWF output from 12Z does not support significant snow for the North AL/GA area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL at GFS. It's the weather model equivalent of Ebby Calvin LaLoosh from Bull Durham. "I don't know where it's going." 18z is super suppressed looks like it's going to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z is super suppressed looks like it's going to Cuba. I know it's 18z, but this has been my BIGGEST concern ever since the UKIE went way south yesterday. It confirms it's still my biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gonna have to watch the next few frames and see if it tries to pop anything. doubtful. GFS just weakens the s/w and lets the northern jet take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z is super suppressed looks like it's going to Cuba. LOL...look more carefully. Has SFC low over Savannah at 96 hours. South trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Love James but this statement is puzzling. Edit: I see you agree Ben. What is he seeing that no one here doesn't? lol..he must exist in a different reality than the rest of us. That statement is just absurd and completely false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, it looks like the Euro isn't painting a ton of QPF in N AL...but still enough for accumulating snow, right? 12z Euro wasn't good for N. Al, actually 12z GFS was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, at 78, closed 850 low holding together over Memphis. LOL...look more carefully. Has SFC low over Savannah at 96 hours. South trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know it's 18z, but this has been my BIGGEST concern ever since the UKIE went way south yesterday. It confirms it's still my biggest concern. well it couldve sent into the OV and we know that would be worse, Id rather hope for a north trend on the gfs than a south one. cuba seems a little extreme anyway, but it is the 18z, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I commented and he replied in like 2 minutes. ZB… The moisture convergence fields on the 12Z ECMWF along with upper divergence are not nearly impressive as they were 24 hours ago. The ECMWF output from 12Z does not support a major snow storm for North Alabama… I don't know.... As has been pointed out this was a near perfect solution, and we have expect some degradation, but going toward the Gfs would be disintergration. I guess we'll have to wait until 1am or so to find out if he's right. I know climo agrees with him. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LOL...look more carefully. Has SFC low over Savannah at 96 hours. South trend.... Yea GF's relatives are over I'm looking at them intermittently. FAIL on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 18z gfs has a much better lp track now just need the s/w to not get overtaken by the northern stream and this would be good. BUT the gfs has a bias to overdo northern stream energy so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Im encouraged by this run so far, its further south and shows that the GFS seems to be playing catch up to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 s/w fail on the 18z GFS. Still not looking good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I commented and he replied in like 2 minutes. ZB… The moisture convergence fields on the 12Z ECMWF along with upper divergence are not nearly impressive as they were 24 hours ago. The ECMWF output from 12Z does not support a major snow storm for North Alabama… Ok. So the fact that it went from a stronger system over N. AL to a weaker system for N. AL means the ECMWF is "trending" toward the GFS? What about the track? The track is not trending toward the GFS. You can't just find one attribute that is moving toward the model of your choice and say the whole solution is trending that way. He's really only focused on N. AL though, so don't be too hard on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 54 looks a touch SW of the 18Z guidance... The big feature to watch is the northern stream interaction, which start the phase much earlier and keep the southern stream s/w further north and weaker. There was strong interaction by 72 hours on the 12z gfs... but thus far it seems that the northern stream s/w hasn't dug down as much as it did on the 12z run so we might see a slightly better solution. Edit: Sorry it took me a while to make the .gif. The solution still goes to crap, but its making baby steps towards the Euro and Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is more suppressed, weaker, less QPF. Widespread dusting to maybe an inch for far N GA/AL, TN, northern half of SC and most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS keeps trending in these itty bitty baby steps. It's almost like a defiant army that is giving ground to the enemy one inch at a time. I'm ready for a full-scale retreat!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ok. So the fact that it went from a stronger system over N. AL to a weaker system for N. AL means the ECMWF is "trending" toward the GFS? What about the track? The track is not trending toward the GFS. You can't just find one attribute that is moving toward the model of your choice and say the whole solution is trending that way. He's really only focused on N. AL though, so don't be too hard on him. Yeah, but with GA being so close to AL, it worries me that he doesn't think this will be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, it looks like the Euro isn't painting a ton of QPF in N AL...but still enough for accumulating snow, right? In a scenario where Atl gets 2 to 4 you know Ala. gets some too. I can't think of too many times I've gotten sticking snow and Ala didn't. I didn't even think that was possible, unless it was some strange event where Joe sends snow down on a cad. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z Euro wasn't good for N. Al, actually 12z GFS was better. No it wasn't the Euro was much better. Not even close. Euro had about two inches at HSV, the GFS had maybe a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I commented and he replied in like 2 minutes. ZB… The moisture convergence fields on the 12Z ECMWF along with upper divergence are not nearly impressive as they were 24 hours ago. The ECMWF output from 12Z does not support a major snow storm for North Alabama… He's right about NORTH alabama. It's one of the few places the euro doesn't have much precip. So I don't think he is talking about anywhere else. Georgia, on the euro, does far far better than alabama. doubtful. GFS just weakens the s/w and lets the northern jet take over. It would be nice if it would finally come aboard. Reminds me of last winter when the gfs kept hanging on to a very far south and dry solution for days, while the other models (especially the canadian) were being consistent in showing a much further north system. We can only hope this is a case of the gfs being stubborn and not having a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, but haven't seen the GFS witht he storm here before have we? More or less right place (aligning with most other models),, just no phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, but with GA being so close to AL, it worries me that he doesn't think this will be a big deal. I don't know about your backyard specifically, but things would tend to improve as you head East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS is slowly becoming the Euro. It's like a hulk transformation that lasts for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know it's 18z, but this has been my BIGGEST concern ever since the UKIE went way south yesterday. It confirms it's still my biggest concern. I thought it was good to see HPC say that the UKMet was an outlier - "AFTER DISCOUNTING THE 12Z UKMET DUE TO ITS OUTLIER DEPICTIONS IN MULTIPLE AREAS..." I think we are sitting in a great position with respect to storm track and our big bugaboo, cold temperatures. My biggest concern would be the phase not occuring properly and we end up with a light to moderate event instead of a moderate to heavy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 its heading straight out to see after brushing NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 He's right about NORTH alabama. It's one of the few places the euro doesn't have much precip. So I don't think he is talking about anywhere else. Georgia, on the euro, does far far better than alabama. It would be nice if it would finally come aboard. Reminds me of last winter when the gfs kept hanging on to a very far south and dry solution for days, while the other models (especially the canadian) were being consistent in showing a much further north system. We can only hope this is a case of the gfs being stubborn and not having a clue. What part of GA does "far" better than AL ? James Spann covers all of Central AL including areas near Atlanta ( right on the GA border). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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