strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18GFS has the SW coming on about 100mile N of the Southern CAL border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 @36 it is at the southern tip of NV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the Euro and Canadian lose this storm tonight, I am placing the blame squarely on the... The only time I can remember a radio show not jinxing a storm was last Feb while I was in DC getting dumped on. That show was during the event, not before. While I like to listen to them, and call in sometimes, they have a reputation as being the kiss of death so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 James Spann sure has a different tune, he says NO> I honestly don't understand his statement that the Euro/GEM models are trending toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like the same placement at hr42...GFS 12 to the 18 that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The ECMWF and the GEM are trending toward the GFS solution, so at this point we don’t see much reason to change our ongoing forecast. Love James but this statement is puzzling. Edit: I see you agree Ben. What is he seeing that no one here doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 James Spann out of Birmingham says No storm. Thinks climatology favors GFS. How is the euro trending toward the GFS? Euro has been locked in for 3 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, not much change -- GFS's stubborness is adding to my holiday stress. Wish it would just cave already! Looks like the same placement at hr42...GFS 12 to the 18 that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Low looks stronger at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 James Spann sure has a different tune, he says NO> I saw that, and he said the models were trending toward the GFS! He's about as good as they come, but come on man. The Euro was an all out phased blizzard for the east coast. Don't know how he came out with that statement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How is the euro trending toward the GFS? Euro has been locked in for 3 days! It hasn't been. That's what's wrong with the picture. Not sure what he smoking/looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 James Spann sure has a different tune, he says NO> His write up specifically says the ECMWF and GEM are actually trending toward the GFS, not the other way around. He got burned last year on a bad call and that has seemed to make him very conservative. I wonder what Kirk Mellish has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Oh how I hope the radar will look similar to this For the South, the Euro was not far off if it bombed a little earlier Look at those ECMWF H5 maps again chief 93 was a triple-phaser, this one will be a double if we are lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z GFS at 48 hours already faster and more north than 18z NAM -- by roughly half the height of the state of Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 His write up specifically says the ECMWF and GEM are actually trending toward the GFS, not the other way around. He got burned last year on a bad call and that has seemed to make him very conservative. I wonder what Kirk Mellish has to say. Mellish will just plagiarise someone on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 His write up specifically says the ECMWF and GEM are actually trending toward the GFS, not the other way around. He got burned last year on a bad call and that has seemed to make him very conservative. I wonder what Kirk Mellish has to say. Just check Talkweather. He copied and pasted a Met's take from there last week (very disappointing!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 His write up specifically says the ECMWF and GEM are actually trending toward the GFS, not the other way around. He got burned last year on a bad call and that has seemed to make him very conservative. I wonder what Kirk Mellish has to say. sounds like JB, he still disagrees with Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ok well I'm finally back home (in Greenville, SC) and I'm happy to see how things have trended to the south and east. The problem is now will this continue and become a situation similar to last weekend where there is little to no system or will we actually see this system pan out. Its really easy for La Nina's to have s/w features in the southern stream be over emphasized when the northern stream really squishes everything. That was the main problem with the last s/w feature. However, this system upcoming is currently modeled to be much stronger than the last event, with a discrete shortwave moving along in the southern stream. Many of the mets including both Robert and Allan have mentioned the time this system phases is absolutely critical to just how big this event turns out to be. I am fully in agreement with their thoughts, but I am concerned that the intensity of the s/w is also going to determine at what time these the polar and subtropical jet phase. A stronger s/w normally means an earlier phase. In addition the track of the shortwave also has a big determination on where this feature goes. A further north shortwave also normally means an earlier phase since it it closer to the northern stream features when merging. Thus far the trend for the shortwave feature in the southern stream, as alluded to by many here has been further south and generally weaker. The 12z Euro was such a great solution because it took the s/w even further south, yet it also intensified the depth of the s/w. Thus the phasing occurred at nearly the same location as 00z but was more intense due to the stronger s/w initially. My main concern is that the models could be overestimating the intensity of the s/w due to the fact we have a La Nina regime and we have already had a couple of similar cases go by the way side as the models simply modeled the s/w too strong. Thus the track might be about as far south as its going to go, but if the s/w is too weak, it will phase too late for anyone to experience more than a minor event in the southeast. So basically what I want to see is. 1. shortwave stays as strong as the euro or even intensifies a little. 2. shortwave track stays on current projection. If the shortwave gets even stronger under this current track... lookout! If the shortwave gets weaker with the same track, we will see a solution similar to the Ukmet or Canadian. My main concern again is that the s/w is going to be weaker than currently modeled. The gfs is in a league of its own in the loony bin because of its forecast positioning on the s/w which is way further north and much weaker than the rest of the models. The shortwave is so weak the phase is almost nonexistent as if a small feature was being absorbed into a giant 500mb low, which is why is has such a weak solution. Since the Ukmet supports the Euro in the current phasing and digging of the s/w, I think its far more believable that the Euro and Ukmet are correct, as the Ukmet is normally very good as showing the intensity of phasing events. If folks remember back to last year on December 18th, 2009... the Euro and Ukmet were both showing a strongly phasing solution while the gfs was still out to lunch up until less than 72 hours till the start of the event. Since both of the models are showing a strongly phasing solution currently, just variances in position... I think they have the right idea with the upcoming system. Ok enough of my rambling... lets see what the 18z gfs can show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 @60 it looks to be a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 54 looks a touch SW of the 18Z guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Love James but this statement is puzzling. Edit: I see you agree Ben. What is he seeing that no one here doesn't? Greg, other than climatology I'm not sure how he gets to Euro trending to GFS. I wish he woulda 'splained his thinking a little better. It looks like a sentence from an FFC disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I honestly don't understand his statement that the Euro/GEM models are trending toward the GFS. Yeah, from what I can tell the gfs is the outlier. Makes no sense after the Euro 12z. unless he thinks the Euro's last minute phase/bomb is exiting the model stage, and that was the last salute. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It also looks stronger... @60 it looks to be a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Like seeing that 850 close off in the Texas panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, from what I can tell the gfs is the outlier. Makes no sense after the Euro 12z. unless he thinks the Euro's last minute phase/bomb is exiting the model stage, and that was the last salute. T I commented and he replied in like 2 minutes. ZB… The moisture convergence fields on the 12Z ECMWF along with upper divergence are not nearly impressive as they were 24 hours ago. The ECMWF output from 12Z does not support a major snow storm for North Alabama… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Greg, other than climatology I'm not sure how he gets to Euro trending to GFS. I wish he woulda 'splained his thinking a little better. It looks like a sentence from an FFC disco. James does a lot of public speaking engagements and so forth so maybe he didn't look really close at the last couple of runs? I am making excuses here for him and maybe he just honestly believes what the GFS is selling but I think he is two shades of wrong to say the EURO has trended toward the GFS. It is simply bad information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Gotcha WeatherNC. I don't have a lot of experience with Winter Wx in my location. However, I'm hoping and praying this bombs in time in the Gulf to bring down the cold air for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is James response on his blog in regards to Euro trending towards GFS. " The moisture convergence fields on the 12Z ECMWF along with upper divergence are not nearly impressive as they were 24 hours ago. The ECMWF output from 12Z does not support a major snow storm for North Alabama…" Still puzzling! It's not puzzling at all. he is talking about north Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z is super suppressed looks like it's going to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's not puzzling at all. he is talking about north Alabama. Yeah, it looks like the Euro isn't painting a ton of QPF in N AL...but still enough for accumulating snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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