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Christmas Storm III


Cold Rain

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:35 PM, Shawn said:
<br />Woo!  America vs the world!  I expect changes like these with these 06/18z runs until the system is on land.<br />
<br /><br /><br /><br />Why are the 6 and 18z runs considered off runs with hiccups? Hear that those runs aren't very good and just wondering why. Thanks
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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:37 PM, AirNelson39 said:

<br /><br /><br />

Why are the 6 and 18z runs considered off runs with hiccups? Here that those runs aren't very good and just wondering why. Thanks

I believe one of the main reasons is because they use older data if I'm not mistaken?

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  Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

338 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.

LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE

THROUGH THE CWA. GFS SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA

FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEARS THE CWA OUT PRECIP WISE BY SATURDAY EXCEPT

FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD THE BULK OF ANY

WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF US...HOWEVER THE THICKNESSES

SUGGEST EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA COULD STILL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW.

THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THOUGH. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION

TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...A WINTER WEATHER

SITUATION COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS

TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL CONTINUALLY NEED TO BE RE-

EVALUATED AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE

MODELS SOON.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:37 PM, RaleighWx said:

Keep in mind the NAM uses the previous run of the GFS for boundary conditions, thus especially in the 72-84 hour range, the model is going to be very close to the GFS for these events where features start outside or near the edge of it's grid.

Thanks for the info! Looks like that could be the issue.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:42 PM, WeatherNC said:

yes, this is one of the reasons... 0z and 12z runs have fresh RAOB ingest for each time, respectively.

Once the system is on shore I think all of these models especially the GFS and NAM will come up with different solutions. Does anyone know how well our models are sampling the data on this wave compared to the Foreign models.. especially the Euro?

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:44 PM, Shawn said:

Once the system is on shore I think all of these models especially the GFS and NAM will come up with different solutions. Does anyone know how well our models are sampling the data on this wave compared to the Foreign models.. especially the Euro?

I know the Euro has far superior resolution, Im not sure about sampling however.

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Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:47 PM, Cheeznado said:

Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out.

I cant imagine a mean ever showing anything close to what the OP has shown. Only useful to look at track of LP as well as upper air features from this range.

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Yep, FFC still following the GFS. FWIW, I currently have almost all of the southeast forecast, AFD's, and HWO's from each forecast office, all in one place for easy reference. If you go to my home page, on the top menu, click on Forecast, Forecast Products, and go to the state and forecast office from there. The forecast page also has the corresponding links to the respective AFD and HWO. I should have the rest of them finished in a hour or so.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.

LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE

THROUGH THE CWA. GFS SHOWS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA

FRIDAY NIGHT AND CLEARS THE CWA OUT PRECIP WISE BY SATURDAY EXCEPT

FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD THE BULK OF ANY

WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF US...HOWEVER THE THICKNESSES

SUGGEST EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA COULD STILL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW.

THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THOUGH. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION

TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT...A WINTER WEATHER

SITUATION COULD SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS

TOWARD GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL CONTINUALLY NEED TO BE RE-

EVALUATED AND HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE

MODELS SOON.

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:47 PM, Cheeznado said:

Euro ensembles are as an aggregate not as extreme as the Op, but the differences are not huge- the mean surface low goes across the Gulf and does deepen off the Carolinas but not as strong as the Op. Would probably be a moderate but not huge event, but the means do tend to dampen things out.

Good to see you (somewhat) optimistic for this event. What do you make of FFC's discussion? Is there any way they can justify their preference of the GFS in this case?

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  On 12/21/2010 at 8:49 PM, beanskip said:

I tell you what, if you offered me 2-4 inches from this storm I'd take it in a heartbeat and would probably have lots of company.

agreed but more would be even more amazing :thumbsup: . That deformation band on the Euro just needs to be a tad farther west for us to really cash in :snowman:

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