Christmas Storm III

[Cold Rain]

I posted this earlier from my BB cause they blocked this site at my work, but it got deleted or something.

Feel free to post here when the other thread is full. And expect some variations from the models. How many times have you ever seen a storm modeled definitively from 6 days out, never once waivering? Not many. I expect this afternoon's Euro to disappoint. But don't worry. It'll come back. I mean, when a storm is guaranteed, it's guaranteed.

[FoothillsNC]

I won't be around the 12Z Euro today except a few panels. I admit I'm extremely nervous about the timing of the phase. So far, its been looking good, in the knick of time really for here. If its off timing somewhat, theres going to be a much different actual weather on the ground scenario. Its almost a "all or nothing" deal for the western Carolinas on this one. I guess the GGEM is possible with its moderate snowstorm, which grows into a much bigger one just east into the central and eastern Piedmont. The Euro is running . Hopefully your good luck continues.

[Cheeznado]

OK, I'll start- the 12Z Euro is to 6 hours.....(drum roll)

[strongwxnc]

Let hope our needle head get bigger and bigger as we progress into this weekend...

I won't be around the 12Z Euro today except a few panels. I admit I'm extremely nervous about the timing of the phase. So far, its been looking good, in the knick of time really for here. If its off timing somewhat, theres going to be a much different actual weather on the ground scenario. Its almost a "all or nothing" deal for the western Carolinas on this one. I guess the GGEM is possible with its moderate snowstorm, which grows into a much bigger one just east into the central and eastern Piedmont. The Euro is running . Hopefully your good luck continues.

[FoothillsNC]

OK, I'll start- the 12Z Euro is to 6 hours.....(drum roll)

I'll say , in the perfect "create your own " scenario, I'd go for the Euro to keep the bowling ball looks with a fan of east to west snow as it goes across Ok and n. Texas then rotates into the Gulf Coast around LA. From there, a surface low is spawned and the northern stream is diving into western Tennessee, causing an explosion of moisture across the entire Deep South from Arkansa, eastward, and the snow line is sagging south rapidly. By Christmas morning, a 999 low is in southeast GA or the northern Florida panhandle and snow stretches from BHM ATL CAE GSP CLT to across the mtns into Tennessee. All this pivots cyclonically up the east coast, with everyone in deformation snow bands and 1-2" hour rates. Actually, its not far off from that .

[beanskip]

Greed is good!

(By the way, if this run goes to hell it will be entirely because YOU didn't give us the play by play!)

I'll say , in the perfect "create your own " scenario, I'd go for the Euro to keep the bowling ball looks with a fan of east to west snow as it goes across Ok and n. Texas then rotates into the Gulf Coast around LA. From there, a surface low is spawned and the northern stream is diving into western Tennessee, causing an explosion of moisture across the entire Deep South from Arkansa, eastward, and the snow line is sagging south rapidly. By Christmas morning, a 999 low is in southeast GA or the northern Florida panhandle and snow stretches from BHM ATL CAE GSP CLT to across the mtns into Tennessee. All this pivots cyclonically up the east coast, with everyone in deformation snow bands and 1-2" hour rates. Actually, its not far off from that .

[CaryWx]

...but seriously folks.

For the pros here..All these models could change one way or another once the storm gets on the west coast tomorrow night, correct? More real-time data to sample, etc.?

[FoothillsNC]

well through 36 and 48 its still looking the same as 00z. Closed low in nw AZ at 48.

[Lookout]

Since this is a new thread, it needs to start off right...so A strong reminder, keep it on topic and refrain from making one line posts that don't contribute to the discussion or that is relevant. Any of these will be deleted and repeat offenders will be given a timeout.

[FoothillsNC]

Bring it home Robert. The weight of the world is on your shoulders.

Burger or someone else can do this , I have to be splitting any second now. But out to 60, barely opend up in central NM, and the eastern vortex maintains a strong hold, HP in the southern Canada. Really looks abou tthe same.

[WeatherNC]

Did not see it posted yet, but 12z UKMET has a 1005mb near Tampa Bay at 120hrs, and 980mb at 144 hrs that splits the bill with NC and Bermuda per meteociel's site...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=6&carte=1021&archive=0

[burgertime]

Wow perfect time for my internet to go out . @60 it looks similar to 00z it might be holding a little back out west.

[bingcrosbyb]

Did not see it posted yet, but 12z UKMET has a 1005mb near Tampa Bay at 120hrs, and 980mb at 144 hrs that splits the bill with NC and Bermuda per meteociel's site...

http://www.meteociel...=1021&archive=0

Looks super supressed.

[strongwxnc]

haha.

Would be nice to see that hold out west a tad.

Wow perfect time for my internet to go out . @60 it looks similar to 00z it might be holding a little back out west.

[FoothillsNC]

at 66 looks like its about to start moving southeast a little, its in western Texas. Oops. At 72 its a 2 closed contour low in TX Panhandle. Thats pretty healthy!

[burgertime]

Looks super supressed.

To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if this run the Euro suppress it, it was a fine line last night and this run might give us that solution just cause that's usually how it goes.

[beanskip]

Hmmm -- might be going north some -- 5h low in Texas panhandle at 72 hours.

[generelz]

at 66 looks like its about to start moving southeast a little, its in western Texas. Oops. At 72 its a 2 closed contour low in TX Panhandle. Thats pretty healthy!

How's the timing of the northern stream energy? do you have access to the 500mb maps?

[burgertime]

Out to 72 and pretty much the same as 00z. Moisture is blossoming out on the eastern side of the panhandle in Tx.

[AirNelson39]

<br />Looks super supressed.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

I'm guessing it is a little fast and doesn't phase? Haven't seen it just speculating

[Lookout]

Euro is still better than the gfs. Unlike the gfs which is open at 72 hours, the euro has a closed low. Gfs also already has more interaction with the northern stream than the euro at this time.

[burgertime]

Hmmm -- might be going north some -- 5h low in Texas panhandle at 72 hours.

@78 it's looking a little south to my untrained eyes

[burgertime]

@84 she's headed to LA this will be another needle to thread.

[Cheeznado]

One good thing, this Euro is not like the GFS at all, at 78 slightly slower than the 00Z Euro run but actually quite similar overall

[FoothillsNC]

1012 surface low in central Texas at 78. Good inverted trough through eastern Kansas. It appears to be wanting to dive more southeast. I think this may be more supressed so far. The high pressure is nuding or damming ahead of it pretty good into Tenn. Valley.

At 84, a closed low near or north of Dallas, and precip east to TEnn. The Ridge is amplying in the northern Rockies so we'll see if it can help phase this to benefit us.

[burgertime]

One good thing, this Euro is not like the GFS at all, at 78 slightly slower than the 00Z Euro run but actually quite similar overall

Yep if anything it goes too far south.

[strongwxnc]

Got the attention of all the folks on AmericanWX

1097 active user(s) (in the past 15 minutes)

710 members, 345 guests, 42 anonymous users

Nice work americanWX!!!

[burgertime]

@90 it's lock and step pretty much with 00z.

[burgertime]

Moment of truth the next few frames @96 our low is in LA it needs to make a turn in the next 12 hours.

[FoothillsNC]

As Burger said at 90 its looking like it going to try hard to thread the needle A low is in the western Gulf now, the upper low still closed in northeast Texas but hte northern stream looks to almost totally supress it. We'll see. At 96 its opened up in n. Laousiana, and snow over TEnn, Miss, Arka.