nflwxman Posted June 29, 2016 Author Share Posted June 29, 2016 From Ed Hawkins blog, an apples-to-apples comparison of HADCRUT to climate models (blue triangles are with adjustments) produces good agreement. The adjustments needed to get an apples-to-apples comparison include 1) air temperature over water (models) vs SST (HADCRUT) and 2) coverage gaps in the early part of the HADCRUT record. In the figure adjustment #1 is "blended" and adjustment #1+#2 is "blended-masked". http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/reconciling-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity/ HADCRUTfig1_richardson_2016.jpg Great study and pretty surprising that this wasn't indicated earlier (during the faux hiatus period). The slowdown was partially related to external and internal reduced forcing (chinese aerosals, low TSI, ENSO) along with these inherent measurement bias. Also, last but not least, is the missing arctic data for HADCRUT4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 NCEP/NCAR has done pretty decent this ENSO cycle. I would say the difference between this month and last June is enough to be pretty confident for another monthly GISS record. http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html days.png Tacking on 0.55 to 0.7 to the WeatherBell CFSv2 monthly anomaly has also done a fairly good job at predicting the GISS anomaly. At +0.26 for the month, that would favor a GISS anomaly between +0.81 and +0.96, making a new June record high fairly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 UAH6 down 0.21 to 0.35 in June. Unless there is a rebound, 15/16 will be a relatively short UAH6 nino spike compared to 97/98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 UAH V5.6 was a 0.37 for June down 0.19 from May and 0.01 above June of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 11, 2016 Share Posted July 11, 2016 Crazy, We just broke the record for hottest year, nine straight times https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/jul/11/we-just-broke-the-record-for-hottest-year-9-straight-times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 New study (open access) shows climate models are getting the main shifts in cloud distribution since the 1980s right, indicating that clouds are a positive feedback to increasing GHG. Further evidence that a "low" climate sensitivity is unlikely and not a good basis for forward planning. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature18273.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 June 2016 was the warmest June on record according to NASA and NOAA. But it only barely beat June 2015. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-june-global-temperature-record-20160719-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Very likely July will attain a higher global temperature anomaly than June with an anomaly of +0.37 on the WeatherBell CFSv2 (compared to +0.27 for June), with daily global temperature anomalies now rising to +0.5. Would favor a final anomaly between +0.92 and +1.07 for July, smashing the previous record on GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted July 23, 2016 Share Posted July 23, 2016 On July 22, 2016 at 1:57 AM, Snowlover123 said: Very likely July will attain a higher global temperature anomaly than June with an anomaly of +0.37 on the WeatherBell CFSv2 (compared to +0.27 for June), with daily global temperature anomalies now rising to +0.5. Would favor a final anomaly between +0.88 and +1.03 for July, smashing the previous record on GISS. So you think the post-Nino drop in temperatures will temporarily stop? I had expected June to be the last month that set a temperature record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 5 hours ago, lookingnorth said: So you think the post-Nino drop in temperatures will temporarily stop? I had expected June to be the last month that set a temperature record. According to the WeatherBell CFSv2, we should see a higher temperature anomaly than June. Which isn't unprecedented. 1998 saw a couple months where the global temperature spontaneously spiked, despite falling ONI values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Yep, it's running about .05-.06 higher than June at the moment -- it should beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Romm Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Thanks for sharing the video bluewave. That was very informative. According to Carl Mears, surface temperature data is more accurate than satellite data since the satellite data is sensitive to the time adjustments that scientists have to make. The current temperatures (surface) have increased by 0.8F to 1.4F over the last 100 years and as per the research by NASA, 2015 was the warmest of them all. It has impacted agriculture, rapidly increased the carbon component and this essay on global warming and climate change states exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 On 7/23/2016 at 9:02 PM, Snowlover123 said: According to the WeatherBell CFSv2, we should see a higher temperature anomaly than June. Which isn't unprecedented. 1998 saw a couple months where the global temperature spontaneously spiked, despite falling ONI values. There is generally a 3-6 month lag between ENSO and surface temps. So we should start to see them fall over the next couple months, with a more pronounced drop likely by late fall/early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Just now, frontranger8 said: There is generally a 3-6 month lag between ENSO and surface temps. So we should start to see them fall over the next couple months, with a more pronounced drop likely by late fall/early winter. Fall still has the seasonal albedo feedback that now seems to regularly take place now. So the dropping ONI might only cancel out that effect when that time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 8 hours ago, Snowlover123 said: Fall still has the seasonal albedo feedback that now seems to regularly take place now. So the dropping ONI might only cancel out that effect when that time comes. Well, looking at the last two Nino to Nina years, 2010 and 2007... 2010 stayed relatively warm through November, then had a very large drop in December. 2007 steadily dropped off from October going forward. Like I said, late fall to early winter is most likely when see the most pronounced drop. And mostly likely we'll drop below record warm months starting in August - even the ultra warm GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 17 hours ago, Eric Romm said: Thanks for sharing the video bluewave. That was very informative. According to Carl Mears, surface temperature data is more accurate than satellite data since the satellite data is sensitive to the time adjustments that scientists have to make. The current temperatures (surface) have increased by 0.8F to 1.4F over the last 100 years and as per the research by NASA, 2015 was the warmest of them all. It has impacted agriculture, rapidly increased the carbon component and this essay on global warming and climate change states exactly that. You can state that the earth is 1.4F warmer today than 100 years ago... but agriculture production is the highest and most efficient right now than any other time in human history. Higher co2 levels make plants more drought tolerate and GMO and planting practices are responsible for the bulk of the improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Romm Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Higher co2 levels make plants more drought tolerate and GMO and planting practices are responsible for the bulk of the improvements. I found this on one a research paper and hence thought I'd share it. The plants, which ensure our basic food supply today, have not been bred for vertical growth but for short stalks and high grain yields. Scientists from the Max Planck Institute of Molecular Plant Physiology and the University of Potsdam have now discovered that an increase in carbon dioxide levels could cancel out the beneficial effects of dwarf varieties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 From Gavin Schmidt - CMIP3 modeling conducted around 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 12 hours ago, chubbs said: From Gavin Schmidt - CMIP3 modeling conducted around 2005 It appears as if the strong critique of the global temperature models during the midst of the "hiatus" was entirely premature. Consider this: The CMIP3 and 5 suites only model 2m air temperature across the world, but the various global temperature data sets use land 2m temps and SSTs. The ending results? The graph above is not quite apples to apples with the global temperature dataset (the temps are actually rising slightly faster than GISS/HADCRUT are suggesting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 WeatherBell CFSv2 finished at +0.38 for July, favoring a +0.93 to a +1.08 temperature anomaly on GISS. Warmest on record by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 According to the NCEI, this past July was the warmest on record, by about 0.06°C. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607 According to Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS, there is still a 99% chance 2016 will be the warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 From G McNeil twiitter, HADCRUT showing uncertainty range for individual years. 2016 reflects ytd - final 2016 circle will shrink and shift downwards slightly. Recently the super nino years have been leading the way upward, while the other years mark time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 August will probably attain a higher global temperature anomaly than July based off of the Weatherbell CFSv2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 On July 25, 2016 at 11:51 PM, Jonger said: You can state that the earth is 1.4F warmer today than 100 years ago... but agriculture production is the highest and most efficient right now than any other time in human history. Higher co2 levels make plants more drought tolerate and GMO and planting practices are responsible for the bulk of the improvements. Or rather, score one for Fritz Haber and Norman Borlaug But overall the historical successes of post-Haber and post-GR ag are not, like, a cause for optimism. Insofar as we've had discussions in this subforum about the flaws and strengths of climate models that have stressed uncertainty, all that goes much more so for climate-crop scenarios which are mostly chained to projections we've all contested at various lengths (climate sensitivity, region specific impacts), and beyond that per Romano above, its not really clear what effects are going to reinforce or cancel each other out when we knock global temps outside the range of anything we've experienced since we came up with agriculture to begin with. Given all that, the IPCC ARs and related metastudies come up with something along the lines of "IF we (the grand collective pan-humanity capital-W We) pursue and adopt adaptation (the grand cooperative deeply transformative socioeconomic, cultural-political and scientific-ecological capital-A Adaptation) we MIGHT see modest increases in these-and-those staple crops, no-one knows what's going to happen with rice, and there's not a lot that can be done for corn at low latitudes. If we DON'T, or if we half-@ss it, then whhopsy doddle, its probably gonna be declines in yield all across the board, especially in lower latitudes" The uncertainty about regional impacts notwithstanding, what the capital-A Adaptation still probably means for countries and ag regions already sitting at the max temp for certain crops is, well, a lot of people are going to have to pack it in, pack it up, and move -- or radically reorient their economies to different kinds of land use. So observed climate change to date hasn't been by any means all bad for spanish grape growers, but its plausibly the case that by say 2050 its no longer going to be feasible to make wine in eastern Spain or southeastern France, or grow olives in the Levant. And, well, the exciting potential of finnish viticulture in the 21st century is not really a positive tradeoff or even neutral tradeoff, when you think about what the loss of those regional economies would imply. Edit by and by grapes are just the example I know a little bit about; real nightmares would be (already are, according to some) the near-total knockout of subsistence crops in already-stressed or failed states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 or so i'm told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 On 8/20/2016 at 9:26 AM, Snowlover123 said: August will probably attain a higher global temperature anomaly than July based off of the Weatherbell CFSv2. It did according to UAHv6 http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-2016-0-44-deg-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 August was 0.62C above a 1980-2010 baseline according to the ERA-interim re-analysis produced by ECMWF. That is 0.17C warmer than the previous August record set last year. It was also the second warmest month ever in absolute terms, behind July of this year, but warmer than any previous July. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/august-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 On September 7, 2016 at 3:22 PM, chubbs said: August was 0.62C above a 1980-2010 baseline according to the ERA-interim re-analysis produced by ECMWF. That is 0.17C warmer than the previous August record set last year. It was also the second warmest month ever in absolute terms, behind July of this year, but warmer than any previous July. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/august-2016 It seems to have a much lower 1998 El Nino spike than most temperature datasets. 2010 is also cooler than I would expect, while the 2006-07 period seems surprisingly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 1 hour ago, lookingnorth said: It seems to have a much lower 1998 El Nino spike than most temperature datasets. 2010 is also cooler than I would expect, while the 2006-07 period seems surprisingly warm. This report compares the ERA re-analysis to the MERRA re-analysis and to HADCRUT and NOAA surface temperature series since 1979. There are some small year-to-year differences but the overall agreement among all 4 is quite good. You may be thinking of the satellite temp series, UAH or RSS, they are much more sensitive to ENSO and have bigger temperature spikes in 1998 and 2010. https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/ERA Report no. 25.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Warmest August on record by a lot, per GISS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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