nflwxman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Figured it's time to start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 The northern hemisphere is incredibly warm. Canada and Russia being the epicenters of historic warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 My guess is that the warmth from the super El Niño will probably linger in the atmosphere for a good part of the year (even if RSS and UAH don't detect its magnitude) and the land/ocean anomaly will probably come out somewhat higher than the 2015 record. I'm assume the El Niño will gradually fade through the spring rather than collapse before the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here is RSS total precipitable water (TPW) from satellite and UAH6 through December. This nino has sent TPW to a record well above previous highs. TPW tends to lead UAH6 by a few months in nino upswings but the lag appears to be larger in this cycle. However, would expect UAH6 to follow TPW to new highs in early 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This seems like evidence that water vapor feedback, a basic component of climate sensitivity, is occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ed Hawkins has a blog article on 2016 which includes the graphic below which compares the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 ninos. Additional warming can be expected in 2016 over 2015 with satellites expected to warm the most this year (see RSS graph below). Note also that RSS has warmed significantly since the 97-98 nino. 82-83 was impacted by El Chichon volcano, so 97-98 is best analog. http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/expectations-for-2016-global-temperatures/#comment-630947 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I've been reading about sat temp Looks like the issue is the change from msu to amsu in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I've been reading about sat temp Looks like the issue is the change from msu to amsu in 2000. Yes a possibility. One other option is that something in the atmosphere has changed that impacts the msu/amsu like water vapor. In any case there was has been strong nino-related tropical convection since mid-Dec. so expect a solid rise in RSS/UAH in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Another option to help explain the satellite lag is ENSO. Tamino has a recent blog on ENSO and satellites. When you correct for ENSO, RSS + UAH track GISS well until roughly 2010 and only lag in past 3-5 years. This year should tell us how important ENSO is in explaining the satellite lag. Tamino's analysis also shows that the "hiatus" is mainly due to ENSO and even for RSS and UAH there was no "pause" in warming through 2010 when ENSO is accounted for. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/29/el-nino-and-satellite-data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The UK MET office has released their 2016 decadal forecast shown in the chart below ( black - obs, red - previous forecasts, green - CMIP5 model range). The forecast is based on observed conditions in October 2015. This years outlook is warmer than last years with a record 2016, followed by dip in 2017 and then a rebound in 2018+. Last year the forecast was in the bottom half of the CMIP range. This year it is in the top half. The warming vs last years outlook can be largely explained by the ongoing super nino which was not forecast last year. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Nodc ohc for Oct-Dec was a new quarterly record crushing 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 UAH6 was 0.54 in Jan. Only 4 months between Feb and June 1998 have been higher. Also updated to beta5 this month. In his blog Spencer says this will be the version submitted for peer review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If we have a Nina. It's not going to come on as fast nor as strong as 1998-99 or 2010-11. It's pretty wild seeing the cold pool and warm pool weaken in concert. Where as in 1998 the cold pool was massive. CFS is actually showing another massive WWB during the 2nd half of February. Which is when solar insolation starts to pile up heat again on the N side of the Equator compared to what you would call equilibrium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 RSS was 0.66 in January 0.12 higher than Dec. Only three months in Feb-May 1998 were higher. The January rise in UAH6 and RSS was a little smaller than the rise in January 1998 so a new record this spring is likely but not certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 After plateauing for a couple of months SST moved higher in January. This ENSO cycle now eclipses 97/98 with a rise of roughly 0.5C since 2012. The rise in 2015/6 alone is now similar to 1997/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Really taking off to a new baseline. Many of us believe this PDO flip would come later in our lifetimes (maybe 2025). I wonder what impact this will have for global weather over the next 2 years. It's interesting to see the powerful storms off the east coast this year due to the AMOC slowdown and higher temperatures off the seaboard. Capital weather gang all but states they believe AGW is the primary cause of this new era of large snowstorms (even with DCAs under measuring). I can say, here in Central Virginia, the trend is also remarkable. It's gotten disappointing when snowfall events are under 6" these days. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/03/is-global-warming-behind-d-c-s-new-era-of-great-snowstorms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Off topic for this thread but the fact that article didn't even mention measuring techniques is pretty bad. That's a pretty significant oversight that will tend to amplify their case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Off topic for this thread but the fact that article didn't even mention measuring techniques is pretty bad. That's a pretty significant oversight that will tend to amplify their case. To continue and take us even farther off-topic. Measurement inflates now no doubt but something is going on. I was thirty before I saw a snowfall of more than 15" way back in 1983, but on average I've seen one every 3 years since, and 5 in the past 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 January ST up 0.03 vs Dec to a new record per the preliminary ECMWF ERA-reanalysis. Jan was 0.18 warmer than the previous Jan record set in 2007. http://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GISS was 1.13 in January another monthly record, up 0.02 vs December. My current GISS projection for 2016 is 1.06 - based on the average of the last 3 months of 2015. The last 3 months of 1997 and the 1998 annual average were both 0.63. 2015 81 86 89 73 78 77 72 77 82 106 102 111 2016 113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 WeatherBell CFSv2 is +0.58 with more than half of February in the records. Dailies are also starting to shoot up once again. Using the +0.55 to +0.7 adjustment for GISS, it is entirely possible that February sees an even higher global temperature anomaly than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 UAH V5.6 was a 0.62 for January up 0.06 from December. January was the warmest on record and the 3rd highest monthly reading behind Feb 98 0.65 and April 98 0.66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Great explanation form Carl Mears at RSS on why the surface temperature data is more accurate than the satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 NOAA was 1.04C in January. Down 0.07 from December but 0.15 higher than previous January max of 0.89 in 2007. Below is the 12-month running mean ending in January - up 0.38 vs Jan 1998 and up 0.17 vs last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Great explanation form Carl Mears at RSS on why the surface temperature data is more accurate than the satellite. Very informative. Thanks for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Very informative. Thanks for sharing this. Sure. He really did a great job of explaining things for people that don't work in the remote sensing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 what a warm day for the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Here's something interesting. Searching through Weatherbell page that uses CFSR global temperatures: http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php The global anomaly at 06z February 20th (today) is just above +0.8C. The globe is as warm as it has ever been, compared to average. The global temp anomaly was also just above +0.8C sometime in December 2015. I am not sure which calendar day of Dec. 2015. There were two days between 1979 to Dec. 2015 when the global anomaly topped +0.8C. Those days appear to have been in early 2002 and appear to have been just about +0.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Here's something interesting. Searching through Weatherbell page that uses CFSR global temperatures: http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php The global anomaly at 06z February 20th (today) is just above +0.8C. The globe is as warm as it has ever been, compared to average. The global temp anomaly was also just above +0.8C sometime in December 2015. I am not sure which calendar day of Dec. 2015. There were two days between 1979 to Dec. 2015 when the global anomaly topped +0.8C. Those days appear to have been in early 2002 and appear to have been just about +0.8C There was some cooling in the transition to CFS2 from CFS in early 2011 so pre-2011 CFS values are not comparable to current. Below are daily global temperatures anomalies from the NCEP re-analysis through Feb 12 from KNMI Climate explorer. Peak daily values in this nino are well above the prior 1948-2014 temperature range. Current daily global temperatures, after the Feb 12 cut-off for the chart below, are threatening the Dec 2015 peak and could be the warmest in a long time. http://climexp.knmi.nl/select.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&field=nt2m_daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 If the La Nina kicks in and global temperatures (via satellite) don't drop as much as they came up with this El Nino, then we are seeing a stair-step increase in global temperature. The satellite temperatures showed an increase to the 1998 El Nino level and then stayed roughly between + .2C and .4C above the mean until recently. It will be interesting to see if the temperatures on this dataset drop back or will they stay at a new level. I know that every dataset has problems but the satellite in my opinion has less adjustments and is relatively consistent. It is apples to apples. The surface dataset is a hodge-podge of records woven together with many adjustments different measuring techniques UHI etc. The fact that people favor this over the satellite record is laughable. The satellite record is also corroborated by the upper air data too; a totally different measuring technique. The politics of this issue is ruining the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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