A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 sref mean right around 2.7" with a ton of 0" weak/east garbage members one big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 if i had to guess, i'll say the 18z NAM will continue the trend of less/later interaction with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 sref mean right around 2.7" with a ton of 0" weak/east garbage members one big dog Similar for GYY. The mean has like .6 qpf (subtracting tomorrow's stuff) so ratios must be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 this is a big part of the problem and something we'll be dealing with all winter as long as the nino is raging, the northern stream simply has no balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 if i had to guess, i'll say the 18z NAM will continue the trend of less/later interaction with the northern stream Yep. Srn stream wave weaker and further south through 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yep. Srn stream wave weaker and further south through 24hrs Differences don't seem too significant at 36 hours, so I'm hopeful that it's still a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 546dm height line not connected like previous run and jet streak is further south. Should end up further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A bit slower so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Low stays over AR a long time... Not bad looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 NAM gets a little funky after 51 hours. Surface low weakens for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm down with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm down with that Me too. And the entire column is good even for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 At least this event is more defining.... rain or snow... no sludge that takes 3 hours to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm down with that Down with that deformation band. Still doesn't deliver big numbers. Need the low to stay in the strengthening phase and go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Down with that deformation band. Still doesn't deliver big numbers. Need the low to stay in the strengthening phase and go negative tilt. don't think we'll be so lucky, trend away from a better phase looks real i'll take whatever saturday night mood flakes i can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm down with that Yep I'd be fine with that looks like a 2-4 event for a lot of areas in MO/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bowme predicting a concrete mixer to the tune of a half foot for you Alek, but even more for us. Is he expecting more of a phase somehow. Hope his call is good. Wish he could post here also ~ He's been gone more than enough time. Not seeing an amped up NAM solution is worrisome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GRR updated forecast is calling for 2 to 5 inches from Grand Rapids to the north and west for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 4km NAM going to pass the low close to SDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GRR updated forecast is calling for 2 to 5 inches from Grand Rapids to the north and west for Saturday night. They siding with the EURO then? It definitely doesn't sound like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Any thoughts on wind potential? NAM wind fields look more impressive than the GFS, which seems like a bit of a role reversal as the GFS has had stronger wind fields in multiple storms this fall/winter. NAM is stronger with the surface low so it makes sense that the winds would be stronger. imo, looks like a window of 40+ mph gust potential near the lake especially if the stronger solutions verify.I think strong winds are a decent bet especially right on the lakefront, with 925 mb winds around 35-40 kt late evening into the overnight. Even GFS was about 35 kt at h9. Our latest forecast went with 35-40 mph gusts on the lakefront Sat. night. Some wind whipped wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 18z RGEM I_nw_EST_2016010718_048.png Well that looks a little more tucked back to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well that looks a little more tucked back to the west it's the rgem at 48hrs so of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Last AFD from LOT was 3:36AM...wonder what they're thinking on this since the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Last AFD from LOT was 3:36AM...wonder what they're thinking on this since the 12z suite. Afternoon afd is out...they are thinking 1-3" with 2-4" in east central IL/northwest IN, with potential for higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Afternoon afd is out...they are thinking 1-3" with 2-4" in east central IL/northwest IN, with potential for higher amounts. LOT: CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Last four runs of the NAM, trends with both waves. Maybe I'm talking out my you know what but with the nrn wave trending to a more neutral/little further south look, the srn stream wave could slow down enough to have a better chance of the nrn wave catching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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