Baum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Surprised we didn't get a, " I'm waiting until it's fully sampled " reply. We've skipped that step in the process and gone right to the " it's over" replies. Rather enjoying the cynics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GEM remains very far to the east, but looks like some lake enhancement for NE Illinois and the Indiana coast. Surface temps are in the mid 30's for most of the event, and precipitation looks weak. My initial inkling is that most precip that falls along the Lake would be rain, or snow that doesn't stick with the wet ground. That is GGEM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GEM remains very far to the east, but looks like some lake enhancement for NE Illinois and the Indiana coast. Surface temps are in the mid 30's for most of the event, and precipitation looks weak. My initial inkling is that most precip that falls along the Lake would be rain, or snow that doesn't stick with the wet ground. That is GGEM verbatim. It's been stingy on cold sector qpf for some reason...not sure why...could have something to do with how the northern stream wave interacts on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Thanks for the encouragement. Things are looking better for you! Always appreciate your positive attitude, Geos. Time will tell. So far it's looking like most of the models this run have headed east. We'll see what the Euro shows soon. One other thought - it seems like the northern energy steals the show in the end. I don't know if that rule goes out the window during a strong el Niño. Take what I can get from this, even it is a little lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12 inches. I should have about 45 inches for the season so far. My weenieism got all excited that my area could be the bulls eye for this system. I should have known better. The trend is Detroit's friend! You are way ahead of me. I don't even have 5" so far this year. You normally do better than me, especially with SW flow, but so far this year everything has been a miss to the north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You are way ahead of me. I don't even have 5" so far this year. You normally do better than me, especially with SW flow, but so far this year everything has been a miss to the north or south. I was being generous too. It's probably between 9 and 12 inches. It was hard to tell with this last system since we had a lot of ice mixed with snow. It equaled up to a 4 inch glacier. Before that we had two 3 inch snowfalls that melted 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The colder and Easterly trend of this system reminds me of the 28th slop fest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can often count on the RGEM being amped up at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't know if the 4km NAM was posted, but here it is anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Plenty of uncertainty in the details but gaining confidence in a decent hit here. Funny image for Chicago and myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Interesting changes in the models since last night. Hopefully I can keep reeling this one in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Interesting changes in the models since last night. Hopefully I can keep reeling this one in SE MICHIGAN FTW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z Euro appears to just miss a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro is slower with the surface low which allows the low level cold air to get here before onset and is all snow here. 3-5" from DKB to SBN Hoosier jackpot of 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Plenty of uncertainty in the details but gaining confidence in a decent hit here. Funny image for Chicago and myself it's like living next to the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 chicago snow euro 12z.png Based on the surface temps, looks overdone. But not bad nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The nrn stream is a little quicker/further SE as well this run which helps. 850mb temps are down -3 deg C across the area at onset where on the 0z run they were hovering around 0 deg C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll take that and run with it. So the EURO was closer to a phase... or partial phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Based on the surface temps, looks overdone. But not bad nonetheless. Maybe for the city but temps quickly crash across the suburbs to 27/28 by 6z after 33 at 0z here. MDW and lakefront still 33 at 6z with upper teens out by FEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Based on the surface temps, looks overdone. But not bad nonetheless. euro is usually better, either way factor warm surface temps into that 4-5 and you get something like 1.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Maybe for the city but temps quickly crash across the suburbs to 27/28 by 6z after 33 at 0z here. MDW and lakefront still 33 at 6z with upper teens out by FEP Whatever falls here should be a nice plastering as the onshore flow holds up the temperature drop. Won't really have an opportunity to get into more fluffy/better ratio stuff until the storm is winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Was able to catch a snapshot of the RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Based on trends today, biggest concern is how much cold sector qpf gets into Chicago and western/northern burbs. As opposed to p-type concerns from 00z runs. Would take the Euro and run and hope it trends back stronger/more robust with defo axis due to better interaction with northern stream. I think a fairly safe call for Chicagoland is 2-4", maybe more like 1-2" right on the lake in Chicago due to onshore winds. Potential is there for more still even with today's trends if better phasing/interaction can occur between northern and southern stream waves. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Based on trends today, biggest concern is how much cold sector qpf gets into Chicago and western/northern burbs. As opposed to p-type concerns from 00z runs. Would take the Euro and run and hope it trends back stronger/more robust with defo axis due to better interaction with northern stream. I think a fairly safe call for Chicagoland is 2-4", maybe more like 1-2" right on the lake in Chicago due to onshore winds. Potential is there for more still even with today's trends if better phasing/interaction can occur between northern and southern stream waves. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk agree on all counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Based on trends today, biggest concern is how much cold sector qpf gets into Chicago and western/northern burbs. As opposed to p-type concerns from 00z runs. Would take the Euro and run and hope it trends back stronger/more robust with defo axis due to better interaction with northern stream. I think a fairly safe call for Chicagoland is 2-4", maybe more like 1-2" right on the lake in Chicago due to onshore winds. Potential is there for more still even with today's trends if better phasing/interaction can occur between northern and southern stream waves. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Any thoughts on wind potential? NAM wind fields look more impressive than the GFS, which seems like a bit of a role reversal as the GFS has had stronger wind fields in multiple storms this fall/winter. NAM is stronger with the surface low so it makes sense that the winds would be stronger. imo, looks like a window of 40+ mph gust potential near the lake especially if the stronger solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I've had about a foot of snow so far this winter, but my punt comment wasn't a complaint. Baum brought up a good point though, sampling hasn't been completely done yet, so maybe Bowme and I get the jackpot by the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 lol x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bowme predicting a concrete mixer to the tune of a half foot for you Alek, but even more for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bowme predicting a concrete mixer to the tune of a half foot for you Alek, but even more for us. hell yeah, wish hoosier would stop being such a narc and let him make some posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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