Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Alpena jackpot again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i don't even know where that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I have seen worse thread the needle type of events, but I would still lump it in that camp generally speaking for MBY. There is some wiggle room for a noteworthy event IMO....when you have a mid to low 990s x mid 1030 there are usually some solid winter condition winners somewhere. Trends will be interesting to watch WRT to strength and speed as this puppy is rolling onshore partially now. Last night's GFS at H72 featured a number 2 analog of 05JAN2014. Maps seem iffy for a matchup...but I wouldn't mind a similar result (Weenie). All in all fairly confident for some snow ATM IMBY. And a nice dose of winter conditions with snow rates, winds, and crashing temps for someone in the subforum ... although smaller coverage likely on that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i don't even know where that is NE lower MI. Few people, many deer. Yet another narrow snow band with this one. The local area has been lucky with these events lately despite the winter we're having, keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1.6" IMBY final call SREF mean sitting at 1.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Alpena jackpot again? Not much of a jackpot, but for them I am sure they will take anything for that area who has been pretty neglected the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS kind of a snoozer like the NAM but at least it's white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm from the general Alpena/Rogers City (NE Lower MI) area. I'll take anything I can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS kind of a snoozer like the NAM but at least it's white Yeah east. Less interaction with the nrn stream wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah east. Less interaction with the nrn stream wave NAM had the same problem wrt to the nrn wave just to a lesser degree, it's definitely holding this back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm punting on this threat. Looks too familiar to the storms of the last couple years. Congrats Lafayette/south side of Chicago to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 lol^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What a non-shocker. This will end up dumping on Kalamazoo and Detroit and miss this area again. West Michigan sucks for synoptic snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm punting on this threat. Looks too familiar to the storms of the last couple years. Congrats Lafayette/south side of Chicago to Detroit. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Some solid 12z meltdowns^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Some solid 12z meltdowns^ Yep. Because it's happened over and over and over again. We've seen this happen with system after system the past couple of winters, as wiscwx said. I'm at least glad I can get great lake enhanced snows from clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Some solid 12z meltdowns^ lol, honestly didn't see them coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 maybe the quicker stronger northern wave trend from last year comes back from the dead...it's not like we're in the middle of a raging nino or anything, right? :weeenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm punting on this threat. Looks too familiar to the storms of the last couple years. Congrats Lafayette/south side of Chicago to Detroit. What a non-shocker. This will end up dumping on Kalamazoo and Detroit and miss this area again. West Michigan sucks for synoptic snowfall. Given that the ensembles have been leaning south, wouldn't be that surprising if you guys get missed or end up with scraps. FWIW, southern stream wave in question may have been partially sampled by the RAOB network for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z UKMET is 999mb along the northeast AR/southeast MO border at 0z Sunday then 993mb on the IN/OH border southwest of Toledo at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z UKMET is weaker than 00z. and for Chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Given that the ensembles have been leaning south, wouldn't be that surprising if you guys get missed or end up with scraps. FWIW, southern stream wave in question may have been partially sampled by the RAOB network for the 12z runs. Bummer. I figured the south and east leaning was going to stop...but it hasn't. At least we have some clippers and lake effect to look forward to! Hopefully we can get some snow across the board from the Monday-Tuesday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm punting on this threat. Looks too familiar to the storms of the last couple years. Congrats Lafayette/south side of Chicago to Detroit. Yep. Because it's happened over and over and over again. We've seen this happen with system after system the past couple of winters, as wiscwx said. I'm at least glad I can get great lake enhanced snows from clippers. I'm pretty sure Alek and I are <5 inches on the season so far. How are you guys doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bummer. I figured the south and east leaning was going to stop...but it hasn't. At least we have some clippers and lake effect to look forward to! Hopefully we can get some snow across the board from the Monday-Tuesday wave. You probably have a better shot than wisconsinwx though, given that you're roughly at his latitude but farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 hoosier special geos screw job Got a little wiggle room there. Milwaukee screw job for sure. Couple inches to freshen up the glacier would be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm pretty sure Alek and I are <5 inches on the season so far. How are you guys doing? 12 inches. I should have about 45 inches for the season so far. My weenieism got all excited that my area could be the bulls eye for this system. I should have known better. The trend is Detroit's friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Got a little wiggle room there. Milwaukee screw job for sure. Couple inches to freshen up the glacier would be good enough. classic geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Some of models weakened the snow band 2-3 days out with the 28th system and were too far east if everyone remembers... It's a different setup, but it might be the case where the models are struggling to find a solution for the different pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You probably have a better shot than wisconsinwx though, given that you're roughly at his latitude but farther east. Thanks for the encouragement. Things are looking better for you! Some of models weakened the snow band 2-3 days out with the 28th system and were too far east if everyone remembers... It's a different setup, but it might be the case where the models are struggling to find a solution for the different pieces of energy. Always appreciate your positive attitude, Geos. Time will tell. So far it's looking like most of the models this run have headed east. We'll see what the Euro shows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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