Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 FWIW it didn't do too well on 2m temps with the recent ice storm. It had parts of northern IL rising above 40 the evening of the event, and temps didn't get close to that warm in reality. Yeah it was too mild. It got to about 35-36° under the low for 3-4 hours before it started slowly dropping back off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 euro ensemble mean is a near duplicate of 12z with that track to near Sandusky but it is 4 or so mb stronger this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 FWIW, a large number of the 00z GEFS members appear to be south of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 NAM appears to be a bit stronger from what I see. The trof appears to be more vigorous along with the low being 2mb deeper so far. Also, it looks warmer than the 00z. D: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 FWIW, a large number of the 00z GEFS members appear to be south of the op. Oh yeah.. Look at the mean slp track which is near Cincy to Columbus to near Erie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Similar position as the GEM. Well hopefully the snow cover doesn't go anywhere up this way over the next 48 hours. Would help areas flip to snow quicker just downwind. I don't think a light snowcover would affect the storm track. Wouldn't hurt but wouldn't necessarily help either. I'm for whatever shifts it east though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Oh yeah.. Look at the mean slp track which is near Cincy to Columbus to near Erie..That track is perfect. Even if it's a rain to snow deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Similar position as the GEM. Well hopefully the snow cover doesn't go anywhere up this way over the next 48 hours. Would help areas flip to snow quicker just downwind. Full blown glacier in mby. Likely not going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1.6" IMBY final call really liking this call The mean storm track is extremely favorable for chicagoland but once again the lack of deep cold and adjacent bathtub is going to hurt totals IMBY. System speed and lack of any pre-seasoning fen band won't help totals either. Suspect the Euro is a bit stingy on the defo based on the 500mb config and rapid deepening in the vicinity. Either way, mostly rain with a brief heavy defo hit on the tail end sounds right and my call appears to be money in the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Still trending in decent direction for a nice plaster storm to help strengthen the incoming cold in northeast illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That track is perfect. Even if it's a rain to snow deal. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks like it's a 50% rain event 10% slop event. 40% snow event here. 1-3" or 2-4" kind of game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 really liking this call The mean storm track is extremely favorable for chicagoland but once again the lack of deep cold and adjacent bathtub is going to hurt totals IMBY. System speed and lack of any pre-seasoning fen band won't help totals either. Suspect the Euro is a bit stingy on the defo based on the 500mb config and rapid deepening in the vicinity. Either way, mostly rain with a brief heavy defo hit on the tail end sounds right and my call appears to be money in the bank I wouldn't be so sure of any snow quite yet until we see a less radically warm Euro.NAM looks like 85% driving rainstorm. GFS looks to keep most of the column cold enough for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I wouldn't be so sure of any snow quite yet until we see a less radically warm Euro. NAM looks like 85% driving rainstorm. GFS looks to keep most of the column cold enough for all snow. i'm pretty confident on snow clearly i think amounts will be under headline criteria for our area, hence my call of 1.6 even if most of the storm is rain (and it likely will be) i don't see any reason why we don't flip to snow and see a brief accumulation if the slp/850 low tracks anywhere close to current guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i'm pretty confident on snow clearly i think amounts will be under headline criteria for our area, hence my call of 1.6 even if most of the storm is rain (and it likely will be) i don't see any reason why we don't flip to snow and see a brief accumulation if the slp/850 low tracks anywhere close to current guidance I also think that a flip to snow is likely, but I'm weary of any totals (even your call) panning out with a wet ground and 2m temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I also think that a flip to snow is likely, but I'm weary of any totals (even your call) panning out with a wet ground and 2m temps in the mid 30s. when the cold hits, it's going to flip fast (thanks to the SLP position), this shouldn't be a gradual changeover (of course further shifts west change that) there is a reason the pros have the best probability of 2"+ right through the area anyways, looks like the 12z NAM will dig he h5 vort a tiny bit more into the southwest compared to 6z with increased wave spacing...we'll see how it translates downstream...ideally it slows things down and gives better cold air time to sink into place but that's obviously pure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 At 36 hours everything looks a tad west compared to 0z 48 hours, and initial low is NE close to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 At 36 hours everything looks a tad west compared to 0z 48 hours, and initial low is NE close to here. 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z 6z looks south to me, could just be slower...definitely still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z 6z Big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 way too much spacing between the northern piece = lame run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12z 6z looks south to me, could just be slower...definitely still too warm Actually think this is cold enough. 925mb is below freezing before precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Actually think this is cold enough. 925mb is below freezing before precip starts. yeah, we're saved by the weaker solution. Looks like mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 yeah, we're saved by the weaker solution. Looks like mostly snow I'll take this in a heartbeat, especially with cold temps to set in after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll take this in a heartbeat, especially with cold temps to set in after. it's a nice run for our area, hope it's not a trend back east towards a non-event i'd much prefer something more wound up. this is probably the best middle ground though, probably some lake enhancement on the tail end with this track as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 it's a nice run for our area, hope it's not a trend back east towards a non-event i'd much prefer something more wound up. this is probably the best middle ground though, probably some lake enhancement on the tail end with this track as well Was looking at that as well. 850s crash around hours 69-72, which looks prime for the metro and better for NW Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That is such a heartbreaking narrow band to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 hoosier special geos screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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