Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Haha GFS caving hard to the NAM and other guidance. Differences at 60hrs are night and day compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't really recall that 2013 storm. What was the date? In terms of current lake temps, lake is still running above average with mid 30s near the shore and 40+ farther out...to get an idea of what would be needed for lake enhancement. But if thermal profiles don't cooperate then perhaps it could occur in the way that you mentioned. 2/26/13: http://www.weather.gov/lot/2013feb26Very low ratios with that event highlight the marginal temps aloft and at that point lake was obviously much colder. Enhancement is evident in the snowfall map all the way up to Sheboygan. May have been more of a true lake enhancement setup up there but 850s were marginal pretty far north. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It was February 26th and 27th Hoosier. This is slightly under done around here, but I think that 16" came with a more minor wave later on. The storm came in two waves if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Haha GFS caving hard to the NAM and other guidance. Differences at 60hrs are night and day compared to the 18z run. No kidding...does lay down close to warning criteria for much of northern and central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Haha GFS caving hard to the NAM and other guidance. Differences at 60hrs are night and day compared to the 18z run. At hour 81 it looked like it was trying to transfer from N. OH to NW PA which I think it might have done. Anyway here's the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't really recall that 2013 storm. What was the date? In terms of current lake temps, lake is still running above average with mid 30s near the shore and 40+ farther out...to get an idea of what would be needed for lake enhancement. But if thermal profiles don't cooperate then perhaps it could occur in the way that you mentioned. 2/26/13: http://www.weather.gov/lot/2013feb26 Very low ratios with that event highlight the marginal temps aloft and at that point lake was obviously much colder. Enhancement is evident in the snowfall map all the way up to Sheboygan. May have been more of a true lake enhancement setup up there but 850s were marginal pretty far north. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk FWIW, below is how 2/26/13 looked from a synoptic standpoint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 PW Kuchera ratio map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 This could still shift further east, but I'm having serious doubts. If it doesn't I'll just wait for the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Haha GFS caving hard to the NAM and other guidance. Differences at 60hrs are night and day compared to the 18z run. Yeah, pretty big shift. Hopefully it's not done as I'd hate this run verbatim lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah, pretty big shift. Hopefully it's not done as I'd hate this run verbatim lol You know it's a thread the needle event when I'm rooting for a shift west and you're rooting for a shift east lol. This system has definitely become more interesting with today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z UKMET is down to 994 mb in the bootheel of MO at 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z UKMET is down to 994 mb in the bootheel of MO at 72 hr. That is probably going to come in further NW than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That is probably going to come in further NW than the 12z. Hard to tell exactly where it goes after 72 hours with the time intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z UKMET is down to 994 mb in the bootheel of MO at 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks like it would pass over se MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 UKMET is noticeably slower than the other 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 UKMET is noticeably slower than the other 00z runs. Yep, really doesn't move all that far between 60-72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 UKMET with 50kts in the CCB at 850mb, stronger than both the NAM and GFS.. Also, 850mb temps already below freezing here and the freezing line at the sfc already east of RFD and pushing SE at this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 UKMET with 50kts in the CCB at 850mb, stronger than both the NAM and GFS.. Also, 850mb temps already below freezing here and the freezing line at the sfc already east of RFD and pushing SE at this time as well. TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif Deeper solution would probably have better caa on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The UK coming in slightly bullish for a few runs in a row is usually a pretty decent sign. It's done pretty well the last few winters at sniffing out over-performers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You'd hate to think that Lake Michigan could be warm enough to eat into snow amounts in January, but with the lake still running warmer than average and what looks like a marginal thermal setup for much of the storm, have to wonder if it might happen in Chicago. Good news is that it should be relatively minor if it occurs...I don't think it would be anything like that obscene gradient in the November 20-21 storm unless the track shifted northwest, but in that case thermal profiles overall would probably be just warm enough to screw most of the metro even away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 On the marine influence topic - I know on the GFS winds start almost due north here at 72 hours and then in the City they are mostly off shore by 78 hours. I think NW IN close to the lake is where the biggest impact on accumulations could be. Although if CAA is strong enough NW IN could score on lake enhancement. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 0z Euro @72 has a 996 low at SE IL/SW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The Euro is warmer at 925mb compared to the NAM/GFS and less QPF in the cold sector Great surface low track though, goes right over Indy. 991mb northeast on Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The Euro has northeast IL in the low to mid 40's at 18z on Saturday while the NAM/GFS have mid to upper 30's before the CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Similar position as the GEM. Well hopefully the snow cover doesn't go anywhere up this way over the next 48 hours. Would help areas flip to snow quicker just downwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The Euro has northeast IL in the low to mid 40's at 18z on Saturday while the NAM/GFS have mid to upper 30's before the CAA FWIW it didn't do too well on 2m temps with the recent ice storm. It had parts of northern IL rising above 40 the evening of the event, and temps didn't get close to that warm in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 FWIW it didn't do too well on 2m temps with the recent ice storm. It had parts of northern IL rising above 40 the evening of the event, and temps didn't get close to that warm in reality. It was off on track too until the last minute...had been holding on to that far western solution. Hopefully this is just a case of trying to work out the details and it will trend better with qpf in the cold sector on future runs. Have noticed that it's been late to the party with qpf in some of our significant storms in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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