Baum Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Desperation has set in if we're talking in a thread for 1-3" of snow. Makes sense to discuss a potential snow threat. Could grow or could fade. Certainly, a threat to be discussed. Besides, chicago area posters should not be desperate - historic November snowstorm and historic sleet storm. If you think that's bleak, you haven't been around long enough. Personally, I think any wave at the lead of a pattern change has strong potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Makes sense to discuss a potential snow threat. Could grow or could fade. Certainly, a threat to be discussed. Besides, chicago area posters should not be desperate - historic November snowstorm and historic sleet storm. If you think that's bleak, you haven't been around long enough. Personally, I think any wave at the lead of a pattern change has strong potential. The city itself has not done great, to be fair. That November storm was no more than 1-2 inches across most of the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Makes sense to discuss a potential snow threat. Could grow or could fade. Certainly, a threat to be discussed. Besides, chicago area posters should not be desperate - historic November snowstorm and historic sleet storm. If you think that's bleak, you haven't been around long enough. Personally, I think any wave at the lead of a pattern change has strong potential. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Desperation has set in if we're talking in a thread for 1-3" of snow. I think a lot of us will take anything at this point considering a lot of areas have seen less than a inch so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Makes sense to discuss a potential snow threat. Could grow or could fade. Certainly, a threat to be discussed. Besides, chicago area posters should not be desperate - historic November snowstorm and historic sleet storm. If you think that's bleak, you haven't been around long enough. Personally, I think any wave at the lead of a pattern change has strong potential.Good post. I think this is a fun event to track because of the fairly high boom or bust potential. Better interaction of southern stream and northern stream and faster cold air advection and we get a quick hit of heavy wet snow. From a probabilistic perspective, I think there's still a higher chance of it not working out and being mainly rain or white rain because of the crappy antecedent airmass and the timing and wave spacing/interaction needed to allow adequate cold air to be in place for good accums. Would also like to see a tad less progressive system given what appears will be a narrow deformation axis. With all this being said, chances have certainly increased compared to yesterday for a decent snow event locally. Props to Tsnow, Hoosier and Northern_IN_WX for the optimism that this would trend to a more favorable track than what a lot of the guidance was showing yesterday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 18z GFS coming in weakest and most NW of the solutions...1004mb SW of IKK by 18z Saturday.. The difference is with how far south the srn stream wave tracks. GFS is well north of other guidance That's something I brought up earlier. The foreign models are farther south to varying degrees. 18z GFS ensembles have several members that are south of the op with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I would imagine seeing the Euro and UK in fairly decent agreement is a pretty good sign for those in the path of those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That's something I brought up earlier. The foreign models are farther south to varying degrees. 18z GFS ensembles have several members that are south of the op with the track. The H5 18z GFS ensemble mean also looks south of the op with regard to the srn stream wave too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The H5 18z GFS ensemble mean also looks south of the op with regard to the srn stream wave too. A number of the ensemble members are deeper than the op run, which is nice...and also, some of the deeper solutions are farther east with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 eps much more bullish on something day 6. Hour 156 slp positions Cold rain or not, I'd take my chances with that 986 over DAY. At least it would be fun. Looks like my wishing for the low near Dayton looks closer to reality and I still stand by my statement, even though I will be joining the OH crew in enjoying some sloppy seconds at the end. BTW, talk about wagons west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 So I just noticed there's an 18z JMA. Attn buckeye for future reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks like my wishing for the low near Dayton looks closer to reality and I still stand by my statement, even though I will be joining the OH crew in enjoying some sloppy seconds at the end. BTW, talk about wagons west. You and your big mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll take a 992mb low of Indy and take my chances with the iffy low level thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The city itself has not done great, to be fair. That November storm was no more than 1-2 inches across most of the city proper. I thought it was only Chicago's lakefront and south into Indiana that got left out. I wouldn't mind a east track with the EURO with a bit more cold and the deformation band of the NAM. UKMET looked like a good scenario for the city into NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Approximate 12z model tracks. Obviously time intervals make it difficult in some cases, especially the UKMET with its 24 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I thought it was only Chicago's lakefront and south into Indiana that got left out. I wouldn't mind a east track with the EURO with a bit more cold and the deformation band of the NAM. UKMET looked like a good scenario for the city into NW IN. Significant marine influence went a bit inland in the Nov 20-21 storm, but not really far. O'Hare obviously did really well being as far away from downtown/the lake as it is but based on this map, other outer fringe areas of the city probably did alright (maybe like 3-6", though reports are a bit lacking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Significant marine influence went a bit inland in the Nov 20-21 storm, but not really far. O'Hare obviously did really well being as far away from downtown/the lake as it is but based on this map, other outer fringe areas of the city probably did alright (maybe like 3-6", though reports are a bit lacking). chicagoarea.jpg I was working at ORD when the lake band came through. Craziest conditions I've been outside in since GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I was working at ORD when the lake band came through. Craziest conditions I've been outside in since GHD. Yeah that was wild...would've been legit in the middle of winter let alone November. Had been struggling with accumulation in my area due to marginal temps until that band came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hard to say for sure what the 00z NAM will do but based on the 500 mb maps, I think it may head toward a somewhat quicker developing/deeper system in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Through 60hr the NAM looks close to the same with the srn stream wave but it's a little quicker/SE with the nrn stream wave which leads to better low level cold air getting further SE faster. Easy to see when you compare 850/925mb 0 deg C isotherm on COD site to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Approximate 12z model tracks. Obviously time intervals make it difficult in some cases, especially the UKMET with its 24 hour intervals. tracks.png The 12z euro ensembles mean shifted a little east. The SLP ( euro ensembles mean ) passes a few miles east of Sandusky vs between Sandusky and Toledo on the 00z run.. I'll try and keep this updated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 0z NAM with a decent band of snow in IL/MO/N. MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Depends what site/method etc you use but looks like a 3-6" band across the Chicago metro with the highest along/east of a ARR-UGN line. The quicker low level cold allows for 925mb temps to already be AOB freezing across this area when precip/snow begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Some pretty decent winds in Illinois during peak snowfall on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Through 60hr the NAM looks close to the same with the srn stream wave but it's a little quicker/SE with the nrn stream wave which leads to better low level cold air getting further SE faster. Easy to see when you compare 850/925mb 0 deg C isotherm on COD site to previous runs Would be a decent impact storm for Chi metro. Winds kick up pretty good it looks like later on Saturday, especially closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Depends what site/method etc you use but looks like a 3-6" band across the Chicago metro with the highest along/east of a ARR-UGN line. The quicker low level cold allows for 925mb temps to already be AOB freezing across this area when precip/snow begins Nice to see a run with what we need to get a decent event out of this. Seemed like the negative tilt southern stream wave was a hair west - southwest of 18z run too, plus the quicker northern stream you mentioned resulting in cold air arriving in time to get good snow in the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Would be a decent impact storm for Chi metro. Winds kick up pretty good it looks like later on Saturday, especially closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Would be a decent impact storm for Chi metro. Winds kick up pretty good it looks like later on Saturday, especially closer to the lake.850 mb temps are still probably too marginal for true lake enhancement. But wonder if with a scenario like depicted on the NAM, there might be minor enhancement due to speed convergence from the frictionless lake onto land with such a strong lower level wind field. If I recall correctly, the late February 2013 event had that in Cook and Lake counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 850 mb temps are still probably too marginal for true lake enhancement. But wonder if with a scenario like depicted on the NAM, there might be minor enhancement due to speed convergence from the frictionless lake onto land with such a strong lower level wind field. If I recall correctly, the late February 2013 event had that in Cook and Lake counties. Sure did. The event where I got 16". If I remember right the NAM and 4km NAM nailed the enhancement on that storm. For this system, it seemed like the cold air gets into NE IL a tad earlier than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 850 mb temps are still probably too marginal for true lake enhancement. But wonder if with a scenario like depicted on the NAM, there might be minor enhancement due to speed convergence from the frictionless lake onto land with such a strong lower level wind field. If I recall correctly, the late February 2013 event had that in Cook and Lake counties. Don't really recall that 2013 storm. What was the date? In terms of current lake temps, lake is still running above average with mid 30s near the shore and 40+ farther out...to get an idea of what would be needed for lake enhancement. But if thermal profiles don't cooperate then perhaps it could occur in the way that you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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