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Jan 9-10th snow threat. Disco/OBS


dmc76

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Not our finest hour at LOT, that's for sure. Incredibly tough forecast. Obviously the boundary layer was an issue that we expected would be overcome and cool quicker where the heaviest precip would occur.

Keyed on the signal for 850-700 or 850 mb fgen most strongly focused into the southeast third/half of the cwa that probably was a bit farther west in reality so dynamic cooling component didn't help in areas where it needed to.

It turned out that what ended up being the best banding from Putnam and LaSalle county northeast was centered right around 700 mb per evening upper air and mesoanalysis and the models didn't really pick up on it too well.

With all the conflicting signals and trends east/west/weaker/stronger on the guidance which was almost uniformly useless, we end up with the highest amounts outside the WWA and almost no snow in areas in original watch and warning.

Ultimately this is what makes winter weather forecasting frustrating, but also challenging and rewarding at the same time to learn from events like this one and also to have a good forecast in similarly challenging setups. The added challenge is being tasked with collaborating and making the decisions on headlines when confidence is lower than is ideal and knowing that if we're wrong, money and time was spent preparing for naught.

On the other hand, I do believe that while it sucks to bust a forecast considering the effort and passion into doing the best job possible, it's better to bust high with amounts than too low and put lots of people into a dangerous situation they weren't adequately prepared for.

Onto the next one

 

 

nice recap

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Rapid changeover on the way. DTX has put Ann Arbor and Pontiac in an advisory. But not Detroit. I guess they think the cold front is going to stop when it hits wayne county. Temp has fallen from 42 to 34 in 50 minutes here. DTW is reporting ice pellets and rain.

Heavy snow here in Canton! 

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