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Jan 9-10th snow threat. Disco/OBS


dmc76

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A bit under 1.5" and it looks like things are wrapping up. We got our forecasted 1-2" so I can't complain. 

 

Yeah, this didn't look like more than a glancing blow in the last couple days, so we can feel fortunate (especially given where the storm is tracking) to squeak out an inch and a half to two in most areas.

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ILN issues a WWA.

 

000

FXUS61 KILN 100228

AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

928 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE INTENSIFIED THE PCPN AREA IN

THE TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THE END OF TONIGHT INTO

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCED BAND

OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WHICH COULD PRODUCE

BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. WINDS WILL GUST OVER MPH AS THE SNOW COMES

IN, CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THEREFORE ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INCLUDED OWEN, GRANT, CARROLL AND

GALLATIN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY WHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS

EXPECTED IN ORDER TO LINE OF WITH ADVISORIES ALREADY OUT TO THE

WEST.

STILL EXPECTING LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 IN SE INDIANA TOMORROW

MORNING TO AROUND 40 IN PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY.

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3.3" here total. Snow stuck on everything as well. Bottom layer of snow is really wet, but the top is pretty dry. Down to 25°

Had an even 3" on most of the driveway that wasn't close to the road.

 

Was a fun event to track, but it sure didn't go as planned.

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Not our finest hour at LOT, that's for sure. Incredibly tough forecast. Obviously the boundary layer was an issue that we expected would be overcome and cool quicker where the heaviest precip would occur.

Keyed on the signal for 850-700 or 850 mb fgen most strongly focused into the southeast third/half of the cwa that probably was a bit farther west in reality so dynamic cooling component didn't help in areas where it needed to.

It turned out that what ended up being the best banding from Putnam and LaSalle county northeast was centered right around 700 mb per evening upper air and mesoanalysis and the models didn't really pick up on it too well.

With all the conflicting signals and trends east/west/weaker/stronger on the guidance which was almost uniformly useless, we end up with the highest amounts outside the WWA and almost no snow in areas in original watch and warning.

Ultimately this is what makes winter weather forecasting frustrating, but also challenging and rewarding at the same time to learn from events like this one and also to have a good forecast in similarly challenging setups. The added challenge is being tasked with collaborating and making the decisions on headlines when confidence is lower than is ideal and knowing that if we're wrong, money and time was spent preparing for naught.

On the other hand, I do believe that while it sucks to bust a forecast considering the effort and passion into doing the best job possible, it's better to bust high with amounts than too low and put lots of people into a dangerous situation they weren't adequately prepared for.

Onto the next one

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Measurement here was at 0.8".  Sounds pretty insignificant, but I'm pretty happy considering that at this time last night it looked like we wouldn't see a flake.  It seemed like it actually snowed more than that, as we had fairly low visibility during much of the snow as it poured small flakes.  Probably one of the more satisfying mid-season sub 1"ers in recent memory.

 

Interesting seeing some peeps not too far away in northeast IL talking about wet snow.  Was a different world out here in the west end of the state, as we had a dry powdery snow from the start.

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