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Jan 9-10th snow threat. Disco/OBS


dmc76

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Major Euro fail...this is one for the books.

 

Yeah what's up with the EURO lately...

Can't function as good with an el Niño pattern? :D

 

Hopefully that upgrade will help it.

 

Snow is clinging to the trees nicely. Will be a pretty morning, if the snow can freeze before the winds pick up.

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Update from IND...

 

453
FXUS63 KIND 100051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
751 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 751 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

FAIRLY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND SHORT TERM NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTED SOME SHIFTS IN
THE FORECAST NECESSARY.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING AND PERHAPS SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION TO WHAT COULD
BE A BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT. SNOW
TOTALS COULD RANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES BY MORNING.


TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN THE EARLIER GRID PACKAGE LOOKS PRETTY SPOT
ON. HAVE HAD TO ADJUST QPF AND SNOW BASED ON A FEW FACTORS.

NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND 18Z NAM HAVE COME
IN WITH HIGHER LIQUID TOTALS.


VERTICAL THETA E PROFILES...PRESENCE OF A TROWAL...AND GOOD
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUGGEST A BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSE SNOWFALL
LATE TONIGHT /WITH PERHAPS A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION/ COULD BE A
THREAT LATE TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES AND TOTALS.


MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS...WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON SNOW
TOTALS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHWEST.

GOING TO BE AN EXTREMELY TOUCHY SITUATION...A DEGREE OFF HERE OR
THERE MAY HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT.

THUS...HAVE BLANKETED 2-4 ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...STARTING THE THIRD
SEGMENT IN THE NEW ADVISORY AREA AT 6 AM SUNDAY. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED
ALL ADVISORY SEGMENTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AS BLOWING SNOW MAY
COMPLICATE THE SITUATION FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SNOW TAPERS OFF IN
THE MORNING.

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ILN issues a WWA.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
909 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-101015-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0001.160110T1000Z-160110T1600Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-
BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...BATESVILLE...MILAN...VERSAILLES...OSGOOD...BRIGHT...
LAWRENCEBURG...HIDDEN VALLEY...GREENDALE...AURORA...DILLSBORO...
RISING SUN...PATRIOT...FLORENCE...BURLINGTON...OAKBROOK...
COVINGTON...ERLANGER...INDEPENDENCE...NEWPORT...FORT THOMAS...
ALEXANDRIA...HIGHLAND HEIGHTS...BELLEVUE...KENTON...ADA...
CELINA...COLDWATER...WAPAKONETA...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN...
MINSTER...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...
TROY...PIQUA...TIPP CITY...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...EATON...
CAMDEN...DAYTON...KETTERING...BEAVERCREEK...FAIRBORN...XENIA...
HAMILTON...MIDDLETOWN...FAIRFIELD...OXFORD...MASON...LEBANON...
LANDEN...SPRINGBORO...FRANKLIN...WILMINGTON...BLANCHESTER...
CINCINNATI...MILFORD...SUMMERSIDE...MOUNT CARMEL...MOUNT REPOSE...
WITHAMSVILLE...MULBERRY...DAY HEIGHTS
909 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM
EST SUNDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
  JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND THE TRANSITION ZONE
  WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

* WINDS...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 40 MPH.

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