Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 bahaha I remember this. That's when Sir Charles surprised him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 I hate MJ - signed piston fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Dang @ the OH crew becoming all combative. Nah, just good natured poking fun of a borderline non-event unless you like buckets of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 0-0.5" seasonal total starts to get to you after a while I guess. ummm, duh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 combative? someone needs their blanky? Come on buckeye, you got things going with your comments earlier. Maybe this ultimately results in a thin band of modest snow amounts but with some relatively small tweaks, the potential is there for something better. Rain or snow, one thing that looks more clear is that we will have a storm of decent strength in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 How dare you people talk about the potential for snow when it is not going to impact my backyard. (sarcasm font) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 combative? someone needs their blanky? I'm good, man. If I could color OH with a foot of snow, I'd do it in a heartbeat., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yeah I'm liking the look of some of those GEFS solutions. It's a pity cold air is in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I am fine as long as something happens, whether it is rain snow or a mix. Active weather trumps all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Followed by 10"+ of powder on top of the foot this past weekend:))) Congrats. Enjoy that 4" to 8" of wind driven drywall plaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Euro ensemble mean is about 996mb just southwest of Louisville then over Cincy to western OH at about 990mb. Furthest west/amped members at 6z Sunday are 989mb over GYY and 985mb over GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 gonna be a bummer if such a prime track is spoiled by lack of deep cold but not all the unexpected given the strong nino NAM is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 gonna be a bummer if such a prime track is spoiled by lack of deep cold but not all the unexpected given the strong nino NAM is warm This is where my meteorological ignorance comes in. But isn't this wave part of the mechanism to draw the arctic air south? Ideally, it should be a rain to snow scenario for someone depending on the final track. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Approximate 12z model tracks. Obviously time intervals make it difficult in some cases, especially the UKMET with its 24 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's so marginal but it still looks like mostly snow here on the NAM looking at soundings. Isothermal from 850mb or so to just off the surface until 0z or so when CAA kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 gonna be a bummer if such a prime track is spoiled by lack of deep cold but not all the unexpected given the strong nino NAM is warm If we can get something resembling the non-American model tracks (starting out farther south), then I'd feel a little better for our area...even then, a real thread the needle setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i'll take that NAM defo with a euro/ukmet track for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i'll take that NAM defo with a euro/ukmet track for sure I like... fwiw...NAM has decent winds in the defo and a nice orientation for enhancement as well into the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I like... fwiw...NAM has decent winds in the defo and a nice orientation for enhancement as well into the metro You talking lake enhancement? Lake temps are running warmer than average but temps aloft look too marginal for lake enhancement...maybe right at the tail end but I'm not even sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You talking lake enhancement? Lake temps are running warmer than average but temps aloft look too marginal for lake enhancement...maybe right at the tail end but I'm not even sure about that. Yeah....well the orientation is there...but yeah, will have to keep an eye on ticks up or down on the thermal profiles...but, this is all verbatim on H84 of the NAM, so fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Approximate 12z model tracks. Obviously time intervals make it difficult in some cases, especially the UKMET with its 24 hour intervals. tracks.png Euro/Ukmet would be my choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I am fine as long as something happens, whether it is rain snow or a mix. Active weather trumps all Another snowstorm with 1:2 ratios, sooner or later a clipper might bring the first decent snow to the region. I hate the thought of all this colder weather going to waste with brown ground. Better than the supressed cold as a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 18z GFS coming in weakest and most NW of the solutions...1004mb SW of IKK by 18z Saturday.. The difference is with how far south the srn stream wave tracks. GFS is well north of other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 18z GFS coming in weakest and most NW of the solutions...1004mb SW of IKK by 18z Saturday.. The difference is with how far south the srn stream wave tracks. GFS is well north of other guidance Indeed. Also verbatim looks like maybe a flash-freeze following the second system with some lingering snow showers. That's honestly some of my favorite stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 El Niño year Remember this? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15009-march-9-1998-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 El Niño year Remember this? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15009-march-9-1998-snowstorm/ Not a half bad analog aloft I guess when looking into it. ORD was 37 that evening, flipped to snow after midnight but stayed 33-34 until the strong CAA kicked in by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Desperation has set in if we're talking in a thread for 1-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i'll take that NAM defo with a euro/ukmet track for sure Definitely would take that defo. band on the NAM. NAM a brief mix or rain here before flipping over pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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