mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Should see 4+ if rain isn't an issue Indeed. I'd be more worried about those watches verifying in Indiana than our WWA though. Ptype will be a major concern in the Indiana counties. Rain will be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Still 38 imby, :lmao; Gonna be a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z UKMET is similar to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lincoln: BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, HAVE ADJUSTED AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...MAINLY BETWEEN THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND A CHAMPAIGN TO TAYLORVILLE LINE. 2 TO 3 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The NMM and ARW are about the only models that get the low as far NW as Southern Michigan (after tracking the low into Northern Indiana). Not even the HRRR above gets the low that far NW. I was more or less looking at the northwest cut off position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Geos is going to beat me again, Dat magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I was more or less looking at the northwest cut off position. Yeah, but the type of cut-off the NMM and ARW show would be correlated with their far NW low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Seriously, GRR?! Sometimes they have some of the forecasts. Tonight is "light snow" with 4 to 6 inches, but then "moderate snow" for other areas that get 3 to 5 inches. Then "Rain, possibly mixed with snow" in other areas with accums. of 3 to 5 inches. Aye carumba. Bad forecast, Ostuno. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=zfp&issuedby=grr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Seriously, GRR?! Sometimes they have some of the forecasts. Tonight is "light snow" with 4 to 6 inches, but then "moderate snow" for other areas that get 3 to 5 inches. Then "Rain, possibly mixed with snow" in other areas with accums. of 3 to 5 inches. Aye carumba. Bad forecast, Ostuno. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=zfp&issuedby=grr Auto generated products, don't read into them too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sudbury talk is hilarious. My mom is from there, visited many times as a kid. The city is ugly as heck but if you haven't paddled the lakes of Killarney Provincial Park then you're missing out on some incredible beauty. The area was inspiration for some of Canada's most famous painters, the Group of Seven. Back on topic, looks like we might squeeze out an inch on the backside of the system with some wraparound snow. Will be fun to watch the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Seriously, GRR?! Sometimes they have some of the forecasts. Tonight is "light snow" with 4 to 6 inches, but then "moderate snow" for other areas that get 3 to 5 inches. Then "Rain, possibly mixed with snow" in other areas with accums. of 3 to 5 inches. Aye carumba. Bad forecast, Ostuno. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=grr&product=zfp&issuedby=grr That is pretty bad considering your temps just go down from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Geos is going to beat me again, Dat magnet Will you or Bowme in Oak Creek get more snow? I say you, but in a tight race perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Auto generated products, don't read into them too much. Oh, ok. I thought it was the Point and Click that were auto-generated. I thought the forecasters wrote/typed up the "county-wide" forecasts. Thanks for the head's up. Sudbury talk is hilarious. My mom is from there, visited many times as a kid. The city is ugly as heck but if you haven't paddled the lakes of Killarney Provincial Park then you're missing out on some incredible beauty. The area was inspiration for some of Canada's most famous painters, the Group of Seven. Back on topic, looks like we might squeeze out an inch on the backside of the system with some wraparound snow. Will be fun to watch the transition. Very true. I went on a 7 day canoe trip in those parts when I lived in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 36 imby. I just want 4" and I'd be the happiest person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Still 38 imby, :lmao; Gonna be a rainer The weenie genie says relax, it's 36F in Milwaukee right now, and I doubt we'll have any precip type issues with the main slug of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Geos is going to beat me again, Dat magnet 925mb is below freezing the entire event. I think we're ok for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Still 39 degrees here but substantially colder readings out west (Moline 27). IWX mentioned that upstream temps were running a bit below models so have to hope that our temperature decline can occur on the faster side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 925mb is below freezing the entire event. I think we're ok for the most part.Precip rates will also likely cool the immediate low levels to change over any initial rain or mix to snow. Though when I did the forecast yesterday, I did keep snow ratios lowest w.r.t. the metro over downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Precip rates will also likely cool the immediate low levels to change over any initial rain or mix to snow. Though when I did the forecast yesterday, I did keep snow ratios lowest w.r.t. the metro over downtown Chicago. Makes sense. What's your take on any possible lake enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The 09z SREF plume means aren't anything more than 4" for anywhere until you get into mid-Lower MI. I'm curious as to what the 15z will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Oh, ok. I thought it was the Point and Click that were auto-generated. I thought the forecasters wrote/typed up the "county-wide" forecasts. Thanks for the head's up.Other thing to consider, your area will be almost all snow if not all snow and will fall at a lighter rate than those who are going rain to snow. So the forecast actually makes sense when you look at it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Precip rates will also likely cool the immediate low levels to change over any initial rain or mix to snow. Though when I did the forecast yesterday, I did keep snow ratios lowest w.r.t. the metro over downtown Chicago. No doubt. Places in central IL have dropped a few degrees into the 33-34 range as precip picked up (PIA and SPI for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 KPIA 091720Z 33006KT 1 1/4SM R13/5500V6000FT -SN BR OVC005 01/M01 A2987 RMK AO2 P0001 T00061006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 From Beertown:12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE COME IN WITH A TAD MORE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAY NEED TO CONSIDER BUMPING UP SNOW TOTALS AN INCH OR SO IN THE EAST IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH OTHER MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The weenie genie says relax, it's 36F in Milwaukee right now, and I doubt we'll have any precip type issues with the main slug of moisture. Yeah we had a bit of precip about an hour ago and it was mixed/mostly snow. Shouldn't have any issues later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I just drove to Antioch and big fatty flakes are falling here already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 No doubt. Places in central IL have dropped a few degrees into the 33-34 range as precip picked up (PIA and SPI for example)Not surprised to see that places are quickly changing over. I think that trend bodes well for your area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Rain/snow line looks like it's about halfway in between I-55 and I-57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 As has sort of been talked about, does the quicker changeover have anything to do with the system being farther east and more cold...or is it pretty much precip. rates cooling things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Geos full fledged optimism is making him delusional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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