A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 been clicking around the meso-analysis page on the plus side, looks like a nice period of 700-500 should establish itself right over the city later and we should see a couple hours of solid snow on the down side, system will be transient and we won't see that pivot back west with the deformation band needed for good totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 what could have been...we came close What cold have been and what will never be. Darn shame too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Models seem to have picked up on a bit more snow for most, quicker changeover. All models show a very sharp temp drop. Yet DTX lowers accums to around an inch for Detroit and says temps slowly falling Michsnowfreak,it's DTX what do you expect... GRR lowered totals for down near Lansing and Jackson and said they would be slower to change over as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 RAP/HRRR continue to be bullish over Chicago...although they tend to do that and then drastically cut back on one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 temps are sky rocketing to near 50 around DTW. That's sorta of a big deal. I will be stunned if anything more then 2" falls anywhere in SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Models seem to have picked up on a bit more snow for most, quicker changeover. All models show a very sharp temp drop. Yet DTX lowers accums to around an inch for Detroit and says temps slowly falling It's going to be an uphill battle for Detroit to pull much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I haven't really seen much talk about it. What did the the Euro look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I haven't really seen much talk about it. What did the the Euro look like? east, weak, lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 gonna rip pretty good for a short period over eastern/southern LOT i think time is about up for a last minute Geos jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 east, weak, lame Hah...seems like there's been that one model that wants to take it east with each model set. First it was GFS, then the NAM for a while yesterday, and now the Euro. The GFS and NAM both came stronger and west again, so my guess is the Euro may be behind? The Canadian models are following along with the Americans. Wave the peace flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 temps are sky rocketing to near 50 around DTW. That's sorta of a big deal. I will be stunned if anything more then 2" falls anywhere in SEMI. Temps will plummet fast. Its all about how much precip is before and after the temp plummet. Current temps mean absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Temps will plummet fast. Its all about how much precip is before and after the temp plummet. Current temps mean absolutely nothing. Takes longer to get to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Takes longer to get to 32.I have to disagree. I'm not saying we will get more than 2" or anything, just that we have seen time and time again that warm temps ahead of a storm mean nothing.Its all about timing the precip with the temp drop. Between 4am-9am the temp is progged to drop from the mid-40s to the mid-20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I have to disagree. I'm not saying we will get more than 2" or anything, just that we have seen time and time again that warm temps ahead of a storm mean nothing. Its all about timing the precip with the temp drop. Between 4am-9am the temp is progged to drop from the mid-40s to the mid-20s. Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The RAP and HRR are struggling heavily with the pressure fields for this one. Crazy stuff happening with where they ultimately pop and track the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here. If a second deformation axis develop and sits over the area for a few hours Sunday Morning (I.E. 00z GFS), then maybe not. That's not a likely scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If a second deformation axis develop and sits over the area for a few hours Sunday Morning (I.E. 00z GFS), then maybe not. That's not a likely scenario though. True enough. Another Ann Arbor to Northern Oakland county special? Those places seem to get nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow, that is still pretty late in the game for the temps to drop. It will be freezing or below by early evening here.Yes but we won't even start precip til after midnight. The 6z nam and gfs would have over half the QPF fall as snow, the first run to show this. Again not saying anything about how much or little we get. Just that the temp right now means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sloppy seconds here in SW Ontario after the low passes by on the wraparound. About an inch before it turn into a glacier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 NAM suggesting it will be one big dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yes but we won't even start precip til after midnight. The 6z nam and gfs would have over half the QPF fall as snow, the first run to show this. Again not saying anything about how much or little we get. Just that the temp right now means nothing. Oh, ok. Yeah, convergence and deformation bands can definitely cool things off quickly. We are just not used to seeing rapid temperature drops here like they do out west. Still amazes me that Denver can go from 60 degrees to a foot of snow in less than a day, then back to 60 again the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Oh, ok. Yeah, convergence and deformation bands can definitely cool things off quickly. We are just not used to seeing rapid temperature drops here like they do out west. Still amazes me that Denver can go from 60 degrees to a foot of snow in less than a day, then back to 60 again the next. Elevation and Latitude/Longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if N Central Indiana in the watch zone struggles with ptype issues on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Elevation and Latitude/Longitude. Yep. Still amazes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sloppy seconds here in SW Ontario after the low passes by on the wraparound. About an inch before it turn into a glacier....With the rapid freeze you will get work on regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z 4km NAM looks pretty solid for chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z 4km NAM doesn't look awful with the second deformation axis as far as snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 7 to 8 inches for me? I'll take it! Looks like lake enhancement for Gary area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 To the eye of a novice radar presentation and movement looks positive for chi town area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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