mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Tricky call in the city. I'd probably go with 2-4", the 2" on the northwest side and the 4" on the south side. Medium confidence at best...more nervous than usual. This is a really tough forecast, but the Euro/NAM combo at this range is quite a tough pair to beat. I'm going to side with the eastern guidance and hope that some lake enhancement maximizes totals on the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This is a really tough forecast, but the Euro/NAM combo at this range is quite a tough pair to beat. I'm going to side with the eastern guidance and hope that some lake enhancement maximizes totals on the lakeshore. I like to think I know what I'm doing in an amateur capacity, but I'm having a hard time getting a feel for which way this one is going to go. Gut feeling is that the NAM may have overdone it with the stingy northwestern side of the precipitation shield so I'm basically going with a blend. Plenty of mixed model signals. The short range models would suggest perhaps a snowier outcome and can't dismiss that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 WPC liked the Euro, which has more snow east than west SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE N-CNTRL U.S. LATE ON MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CMC HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE NAM STAND OUT AS A BIT TOO SHALLOW COMPARED TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS...SO THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TREND COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 WPC liked the Euro, which has more snow east than west SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE N-CNTRL U.S. LATE ON MONDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CMC HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS. THIS MAKES THE NAM STAND OUT AS A BIT TOO SHALLOW COMPARED TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS...SO THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TREND COMPARED TO THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. Here's the part that's actually relevant to this storm ... SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAYSURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SAT NIGHT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGEWHILE A MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS...THE DETERMINISTICGUIDANCE IS GETTING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00 NAMSTANDING OUT ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE NAM ALSO BECOMES A BIT MOREPROGRESSIVE ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND WHILE THE 00ZUKMET MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO DEEP...IT HAS ADJUSTED FROM ITS 12ZRUN TOWARD THE PREFERRED GFS/ECMWF. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE 00Z CMCREMAINS ON THE FAR WRN/SWRN EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOWPLOTS...AND HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...WITH THE BETTERENSEMBLE CLUSTERING LYING NEAR THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. THE 00ZECMWF MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS REGARDING THESURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT WHEN BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS/UKMET...ADECENT COMPROMISE IS REACHED. THEREFORE A BLEND OF THE 00ZGFS/ECMWF/UKMET REPRESENT THE BEST COMPROMISE OF THE DETERMINISTICGUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z RAP came in quite a bit more phased and earlier in the run over KS/OK. Much different from the 3z run. 6z HRRR also gets the low down to 1000mb over AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This just in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 WPC Snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 WPC Snow map Astounded how I'm still on that 5-6" line here on the Lake/Cook county borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z NAM looks a bit better in my view. It will at least get precip farther northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 6z NAM looks a bit better in my view. It will at least get precip farther northwest. It is. It's phasing earlier, not as quick as the 6z RAP but by 21z and faster than it's last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Astounded how I'm still on that 5-6" line here on the Lake/Cook county borderline.That might be the old map but I'm not sure. In the internal collaboration graphics when I was doing the afternoon forecast package, they didn't have amounts that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 None of the other models cut back in SW Lower MI, so that's odd. Anyway's, 06Z NAM Spreads the love more (remember to account for Ratios which are higher than 10:1 in this case and LES snow showers in the snow belts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN NOON AND MID AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE I-57 CORRIDOR TOWARD 6 PM. THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SEE THE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCUR BY MID EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER WEST OF I-55 TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER TOWARD SUNRISE. * AMOUNTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. * MAIN IMPACT...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS THE SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY. AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS EVENING...SLUSH ON THE ROADS WILL FREEZE AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL ICY CONDITIONS. * OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL GUST FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. WHILE THE SNOW WILL BE RATHER WET AND SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE THE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...SOME PATCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 None of the other models cut back in SW Lower MI, so that's odd. Anyway's, 06Z NAM Spreads the love more (remember to account for Ratios which are higher than 10:1 in this case and LES snow showers in the snow belts) 1-3" for you and you can lock that in Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1-3" for you and you can lock that in Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, might and this is a HUGE maybe get 4 or 5 on the off chance it overperforms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 06Z GFS coming in with low further north, stronger snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 06Z GFS coming in with low further north, stronger snow. Nowcast time... Pick the hi res model that gives you the most snow and ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow, did you guys stay up all night? Hard core. I fell asleep with the computer on my lap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The 06Z NAM looks beautiful again for all of West Michigan and much better for Chicagoland...some of this is from after this system as well. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I saw a bunch of Hillsdale people freak out on Facebook for not being in the advisory, IWXs reasoning is perfectly logical, depends on how fast the changeover happens, how fast winds get LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON FINAL LAYOUT OF HEAVIEST SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MAX WIND SPEEDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wouldn't mind if the latest gfs pulls the coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I saw a bunch of Hillsdale people freak out on Facebook for not being in the advisory, IWXs reasoning is perfectly logical, depends on how fast the changeover happens, how fast winds get LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY IN PLACE DEPENDING ON FINAL LAYOUT OF HEAVIEST SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MAX WIND SPEEDS. I was a bit surprised to see GRR warnings and advisories. Looks like they're siding with a farther northwest area of heaviest snow. Holland to Howard City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wouldn't mind if the latest gfs pulls the coup Nice. Me neither. Check out Alpena. Two 10 to 12 inch snows within a couple of weeks? They could be making up for a number of lackluster years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 RAP showing a small window of some nice lift into Cook Co...my call might still verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Going out to get the rest of the slushy glacier off my driveway before it refreezes again later today. Slushy glacier with rutted tire tracks that freezes is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Models seem to have picked up on a bit more snow for most, quicker changeover. All models show a very sharp temp drop. Yet DTX lowers accums to around an inch for Detroit and says temps slowly falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 what could have been...we came close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 overdone but going to be surprised if it's as bad as the 0z euro was selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Michsnowfreak,it's DTX what do you expect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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