Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Somehow the RGEM has 3-4" here. Not going to happen IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wonder if the RGEM is picking up on lake enhancement and that's why there is more snow showing up further west than the NAM? Winds look favorable for about 6 hours as 850mb temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I don't know about you guys but glad to be getting into the short range...more models and we can actually watch this thing taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS holds serve, like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I don't know about you guys but glad to be getting into the short range...more models and we can actually watch this thing taking shape. I can't wait to not be looking at models and actually watching on the radar and hopefully out my window! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Oh boy... I ALSO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST YET DURING THE WINTER STORM PERIOD LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IHAVE A FEELING THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT BETWEEN SNOW AND VERY LITTLE SNOW COULD BE FAIRLY TIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUST WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THEREFORE...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. Somewhat surprising. Given the model trends you would think a downshift is necessary, but overall good way to handle it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS holds serve, like the RGEM. Little more generous on the NW side it looks like and stronger at 850mb too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 2 models against the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Little more generous on the NW side it looks like and stronger at 850mb too Sure is. Advisory level snow perhaps for the Chicago area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Things could still work out here (Detroit) if the GFS's solution, just slightly stronger and slower, verifies. Doubtful that happens of course. Really need this thing to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GGEM black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HRRR plasters St. Louis and its north and west suburbs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GGEM black and white maps. Also shows the faster phase (and slower progression) like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z UKMET also gets decent precip into Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 HRRR plasters St. Louis and its north and west suburbs tomorrow. That rain/snow line position is kinda icky. That being said, I've been expecting a period of rain here at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Kalamazoo is going to get it all....again! 7 years here and I have yet to see a good one coming from the south that makes West Michigan NORTH and WEST of Grand Rapids the prime snow zone. On to the lake effect and clippers...the clippers can actually produce! I thought March 5th, 2012 surely did that very thing? What did you get in GHD 2011? Another contender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z UKMET also gets decent precip into Chicago metro. Pray 4 Chicago Metro. A Go fund me account is set up under the name: "NW Shift" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 In a perfect scenario... doubt it tho. Much sharper gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Widespread WWA is better than nothing haha The problem is, the weaker solutions don't exactly have higher snowfalls, so this very well could go toward a widespread WWA type event if things continue to trend like they have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Interesting. Snow working into the western suburbs at 19z. That low looks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 ARW and NMM are coming in not too shabby...through 39 hours with more to go in eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Sure does. Thanks for posting all the maps, Geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Interesting. Snow working into the western suburbs at 19z. That low looks north. Geos, it's up to us to pull this storm back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 fyi, the regional views can be misleading sometimes in terms of where it labels highs and lows because of the domain. The main low is still down here at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Geos, it's up to us to pull this storm back to the NW. Haha - yeah. Wouldn't need to pull too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Haha - yeah. Wouldn't need to pull too much. Count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Count me in. Just need to expand that 0.50"+ area back west about 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro says maybe some flurries for the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Euro says maybe some flurries for the north side. Sounds like the NAM. HRRR has other ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Tricky call in the city. I'd probably go with 2-4", the 2" on the northwest side and the 4" on the south side. Medium confidence at best...more nervous than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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