Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The models have been shifting south and east...and don't seem to be pulling the system north and west like they before. It seems like more of shoot north and east instead Maybe 1 inch in Chicago and maaaaybe 3 inches here if we're lucky. Things were baby stepping back earlier today. What the heck happened... 4km nam? Usually by now, I watch the RGEM and HRRR, 4km NAM usually also. Not very pretty. It does try to throw back some snow. That shift is really drastic being only 18 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 From checking the ratios and upper air, this looks like a potential 15:1 system. So, the NAM is basically trying to give me 6 inches. I honestly feel bad for those who keep getting screwed this winter. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The new Over/under for DTW is 0.6" Go>>>> Trends have been in our favor, I'd say we get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Here's a novel concept, let's wait for the other 00z model runs. I can't go against climate trends with storms from the south and southwest... It's Wisconsin and rain here, or Kalamazoo and Detroit with a 1 to 3 inches here. I'm just glad I don't live in Ludington or Alpena...they've really been screwed. I figured with us getting so close that things were getting more set in stone. How often have we seen a shift south and east when we WANTED one? Rarely ever. Seems odd that there aren't higher snow accums. to the west with the NAM showing snow falling back into Central Wisconsin. Must be light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 Trends have been in our favor, I'd say we get a couple of inches. Yea no kidding 2-3" looks like a good play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Trends have been in our favor, I'd say we get a couple of inches. I wouldn't be surprised to see IWX expand their watch to include Hillsdale and another row in IN/OH, for GRR to Include Jackson and DTX (assuming they aren't gonna pull last event again) will issue something for the central-western tier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see IWX expand their watch to include Hillsdale and another row in IN/OH, for GRR to Include Jackson and DTX (assuming they aren't gonna pull last event again) will issue something for the central-western tier as well. I wouldn't expect any of that until the rest of tonight's guidance rolls out. DTX won't jump like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Trends have been in our favor, I'd say we get a couple of inches. Question for you or one of the other mets. Do you think convective feedback could be playing a role in these solutions and why we're seeing these fairly significant jumps this close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I can't go against climate trends with storms from the south and southwest... It's Wisconsin and rain here, or Kalamazoo and Detroit with a 1 to 3 inches here. I'm just glad I don't live in Ludington or Alpena...they've really been screwed. I figured with us getting so close that things were getting more set in stone. How often have we seen a shift south and east when we WANTED one? Rarely ever. Seems odd that there aren't higher snow accums. to the west with the NAM showing snow falling back into Central Wisconsin. Must be light stuff. You mean Alpena that got 10" of snow last weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see IWX expand their watch to include Hillsdale and another row in IN/OH, for GRR to Include Jackson and DTX (assuming they aren't gonna pull last event again) will issue something for the central-western tier as well. Well I think this NAM run is the farthest southeast of any runs so far, so they'll definitely wait to see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I can't go against climate trends with storms from the south and southwest... It's Wisconsin and rain here, or Kalamazoo and Detroit with a 1 to 3 inches here. I'm just glad I don't live in Ludington or Alpena...they've really been screwed. I figured with us getting so close that things were getting more set in stone. How often have we seen a shift south and east when we WANTED one? Rarely ever. Seems odd that there aren't higher snow accums. to the west with the NAM showing snow falling back into Central Wisconsin. Must be light stuff. What did you get in GHD 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Question for you or one of the other mets. Do you think convective feedback could be playing a role in these solutions and why we're seeing these fairly significant jumps this close in? The convection along the coast like that tends to pull the low east, we saw that with the system that brought the sleet storm. That also had a SE trend at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I can't go against climate trends with storms from the south and southwest... It's Wisconsin and rain here, or Kalamazoo and Detroit with a 1 to 3 inches here. I'm just glad I don't live in Ludington or Alpena...they've really been screwed. I figured with us getting so close that things were getting more set in stone. How often have we seen a shift south and east when we WANTED one? Rarely ever. Seems odd that there aren't higher snow accums. to the west with the NAM showing snow falling back into Central Wisconsin. Must be light stuff. I was figuring the NAM wouldn't do much at this point. It's getting to late for major shifts! It's about 50 miles different - huge/odd move with ~18 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 You mean Alpena that got 10" of snow last weekend? Correction: Over the past several years. That was their first big one in a looooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 One thing I'm noticing on the NAM is that it's starting to show the forcing/dynamics being split with this system as it moves through our region, as the southern and northern stream wave are slower to phase. Less cold rain works for me of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see IWX expand their watch to include Hillsdale and another row in IN/OH, for GRR to Include Jackson and DTX (assuming they aren't gonna pull last event again) will issue something for the central-western tier as well. The problem is, the weaker solutions don't exactly have higher snowfalls, so this very well could go toward a widespread WWA type event if things continue to trend like they have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I was figuring the NAM wouldn't do much at this point. It's getting to late for major shifts! It's about 50 miles different - huge/odd move with ~18 hours to go. Just today it went from giving my area 8 to 10 inches to now 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Someone might need to bump the complaint thread, so we can keep this thread clean with just storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Someone might need to bump the complaint thread, so we can keep this thread clean with just storm discussion. Stebo, I'm discussing how the models have changed today. Sorry if you interpret that as complaining. Of course I'm a bit irritated... Sort of like how there was banter that went on and on in the lake effect thread about whether Wawa gets 300 inches or so??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z RGEM looks better than the NAM. Well, depending on where you are I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The convection along the coast like that tends to pull the low east, we saw that with the system that brought the sleet storm. That also had a SE trend at the end. Isn't it true when the convection is feeding northwards into a system going negative tilt, that the low tends to trend NW of guidance? Done ranting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not surprised to see the SE shift continue due to that being the general trend with storms this year and convection in play again to shift things east. Part of the reason I punter a day earlier and I'm not even really upset about missing this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I remember when this was a Houghton event. I'm glad to go into the cold period with snow cover. Will definitely lower temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I was figuring the NAM wouldn't do much at this point. It's getting to late for major shifts! It's about 50 miles different - huge/odd move with ~18 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 above Would love to see the RGEM beat the NAM. Yeah, not as extreme Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Isn't it true when the convection is feeding northwards into a system going negative tilt, that the low tends to trend NW of guidance? Done ranting. Sometimes, but that isn't always the case, and this is slowing the transition to negative tilt too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hmmm...RGEM doesn't look very robust either. Still looking like a weaker system. Strong, weak, strong, weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hmmm...RGEM doesn't look very robust either. Still looking like a weaker system. Strong, weak, strong, weak. Hmm, looks like 6-7" for you. Game of tug of war! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Oh boy... I ALSO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST YET DURING THEWINTER STORM PERIOD LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IHAVE A FEELING THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT BETWEEN SNOW AND VERY LITTLESNOW COULD BE FAIRLY TIGHT...AND THIS AREA COULD BE CLOSE TO OR JUSTWEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THEREFORE...IF THIS ENDS UP BEINGTHE CASE...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ACROSS THENORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Nice. I didn't check out the snowfall map. Precip on the "composite" didn't look like it. RGEM has been the farthest west with this, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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