homedis Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 5-6" seems pretty unlikely for northern Cook. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk I'm being pretty optimistic here. Also, per NWS Chicago Graphic I'm in 4-6". I think it's definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 5-6" seems pretty unlikely for northern Cook. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk our friends are eternal optimists actual modeling says heaviest totals will be in the southern CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm being pretty optimistic here. Also, per NWS Chicago Graphic I'm in 4-6". It all depends on how severe that cutoff will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 our friends are eternal optimists actual modeling says heaviest totals will be in the southern CWA I'm ready to ride the northern fringe and hopefully get some better quality snow out of it.Calling it here at 2-4, lower side towards the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 2-5 far southeast CWA trailing to DAB near the WI border sounds like the right call at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm ready to ride the northern fringe and hopefully get some better quality snow out of it. for our backyard, absolutely lots of guidance showing the northern edge of the defo getting about to my place and then a hard stop as you head north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Agreed. I honestly think we can pull off 5-6" from this storm as long as an eastern shift doesn't occur. Each snow event this year (two of them) has over-preformed IMO, hopefully the trend will continue? I think you might get those numbers. I'm going to stick with 4"-4.5" for now. We're going to see a slightly backing up of the main band, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think you might get those numbers. I'm going to stick with 4"-4.5" for now. We're going to see a slightly backing up of the main band, I think. looks like another large shift east...along with the rest of the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I am really liking that GGEM run. Almost 8 inches for me. One of the hardest things about being a weather weenie is watching the local forecasters/meteorologist. Our local Fox guy just showed one of "their models" and said that is the predicted forecast amount. Guess which one it was....the GFS! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I am really liking that GGEM run. Almost 8 inches for me. One of the hardest things about being a weather weenie is watching the local forecasters/meteorologist. Our local Fox guy just showed one of "their models" and said that is the predicted forecast amount. Guess which one it was....the GFS! haha You were giving up two days ago cause this was going to be another "Chicago to Detroit" storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think you might get those numbers. I'm going to stick with 4"-4.5" for now. We're going to see a slightly backing up of the main band, I think. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 You were giving up two days ago cause this was going to be another "Chicago to Detroit" storm lol. haha, not everyone can have the steadfast optimism of Geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks like another large shift east...along with the rest of the 12z guidance. I dont even know if GEOS can wish this one in, and that is coming from a former wisher himself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 2-5 far southeast CWA trailing to DAB near the WI border sounds like the right call at this point I think that might be stingy across East Central Illinois and NW Indiana. I think Hoosier and southwest could pull off warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm ready to ride the northern fringe and hopefully get some better quality snow out of it. Calling it here at 2-4, lower side towards the lake. If you and Alek can avoid a strong onshore flow I think you two are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I've seen way too many of those during my time here, so I sure was ready to give up. I'm still nervous something will go wrong, so definitely don't have the positive vibe Geos maintains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I dont even know if GEOS can wish this one in, and that is coming from a former wisher himself... I'm all ears as to why the consensus trend east/weaker should be tossed by even the weenie hires that just love to sniff out northwest/amped trends are weak/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I dont even know if GEOS can wish this one in, and that is coming from a former wisher himself... I just think the storm is going to come in a bit stronger. That November storm came slightly more north at the last minute. Now I kind of like to see what the HRRR will show late today. Because that did pretty good on the last (sleet) system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Strongly suspect there will be a narrow band of intense 700-500mb frontogenesis/deformation that overperforms somewhere in the Chicago metro akin to the last 2 runs of the RGEM. Global guidance never really catches on to this but the pattern strongly suggests it to me. It's the kind of thing that could produce 1-2"/hr for a few hours given that area is squarely in the DGZ. Only thing to watch out for is convection robbing the cold sector of decent moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Strongly suspect there will be a narrow band of intense 700-500mb frontogenesis/deformation that overperforms somewhere in the Chicago metro akin to the last 2 runs of the RGEM. Global guidance never really catches on to this but the pattern strongly suggests it to me. It's the kind of thing that could produce 1-2"/hr for a few hours given that area is squarely in the DGZ. Only thing to watch out for is convection robbing the cold sector of decent moisture. Post of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Not much left on the ground here. Looking forward to a fresh new coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks like another large shift east...along with the rest of the 12z guidance. Ha "large" shift east. The narrow band has had its eye set on roughly the same area for the past couple days. Sure, it's wavered a little bit, but I think the entire metro is game for some accumulating snow. Im hoping for 3" up here and wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more than that. I-55 corridor looks pretty golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow, the GFS is C-O-L-D next week and beyond. What a change from December..I mean whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Have the over of 2.8" with Caplan at ORD. He set the line. I'm off this weekend so won't be working the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 mimillman micro jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ha "large" shift east. The narrow band has had its eye set on roughly the same area for the past couple days. Sure, it's wavered a little bit, but I think the entire metro is game for some accumulating snow. Im hoping for 3" up here and wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more than that. I-55 corridor looks pretty golden. I just did some quick ball park measuring of how far things have shifted since the last run and the models we talk about on here have moved 25-50 miles respectively. NAM, GFS moved the least, GGEM moved the most. Could easily swing back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I like 5-7" as a first call here...probably starting as a period of rain. Some guidance hinting at a heavier band setting up so it's certainly possible that could need an upward bump later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Strongly suspect there will be a narrow band of intense 700-500mb frontogenesis/deformation that overperforms somewhere in the Chicago metro akin to the last 2 runs of the RGEM. Global guidance never really catches on to this but the pattern strongly suggests it to me. It's the kind of thing that could produce 1-2"/hr for a few hours given that area is squarely in the DGZ. Only thing to watch out for is convection robbing the cold sector of decent moisture. Yes...wherever that band sets up has a shot at double digits imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 hoosier going all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I like 5-7" as a first call here...probably starting as a period of rain. Some guidance hinting at a heavier band setting up so it's certainly possible that could need an upward bump later. You and Mimillman looks to be in a sweet spot. Need to watch that baroclinic zone tomorrow morning. Bernie Rayno is thinking there will be more interaction with the ULL moving in from the NW - snow should back build somewhat. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/4100815092001/snow-rapid-freeze-to-cause-delays-from-st-louis-to-chicago?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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