Baum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Your call will bust big time. IMO. This is got 4" written all over you and you know it. Detroit on the other hand ........ You might note that graphic is consistent with his call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Your call will bust big time. IMO. This is got 4" written all over you and you know it. Detroit on the other hand ........ I live right on the lakefront, it's essentially across the street...i've seen this movie before it's going to be hard to get more than 2" with ripping winds off the warm lake with marginal 2M temps as it is obviously ORD is looking much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Cyclone and featherwx should join me in an 'O Canada' song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 not much change on the new SREF, micro bump in mean, still lots of junk, might have added a couple big dogs EDIT: fwiw it appears that the clunker 0-1" members are all east/weak as opposed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 not much change on the new SREF, micro bump in mean, still lots of junk, might have added a couple big dogs EDIT: fwiw it appears that the clunker 0-1" members are all east/weak as opposed to rain The clunkers is around here. Can't wait for my 2" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The clunkers is around here. Can't wait for my 2" snowfall. mean low track isn't favorable for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 mean low track isn't favorable for DTW The track isnt terrible. Just no cold air established. temps around the city at the onset will be over 40. That's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z NAM is going to be less phased geos screw job, toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Less phased by 27hrs on the 12z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Less phased by 27hrs on the 12z NAM.. yep, but it's still a p nice looking system at 850 so we probably do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ends up being weaker at 850mb over Indiana compared to last two runs. 4km NAM looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ends up being weaker at 850mb over Indiana compared to last two runs. 4km NAM looks decent weaker is probably better for MBY considering p-type concerns and being on the northern fringe with this kind of setup tends to over perform to a degree but if you're looking for something more amped, the canadian models did well last year picking up on strong northern streams/more aggressive phasing...so you can hope they're onto something. that said it's the southern stream that's particularly weak so it's probably a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 congrats madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 looks like the rgem will adjust east at least some towards better consensus guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The clunkers is around here. Can't wait for my 2" snowfall. Mainly a deer storm in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 it's all downhill from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Personally, I like my position for some decent snow Saturday night. Just gotta hope it doesn't shift East anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 it's all downhill from here Adjust down to 0.8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS says DAB EDIT: actually a baby step better than 6z 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM is a nice 6 to 10 inch snowstorm for pretty much all of Western lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM is a nice 6 to 10 inch snowstorm for pretty much all of Western lower Michigan. Looking good for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Personally, I like my position for some decent snow Saturday night. Just gotta hope it doesn't shift East anymore. Same here. With the trend this winter, I would side with the stronger solutions - not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Even yesterday I was going to go with DAB. Definitely keeping that call today. Geos will probably squeak out another 6" storm somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking good for both of us. There's always that one model that has to be difficult though...and this time it's the GFS. Too late for us. Hoping it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Even yesterday I was going to go with DAB. Definitely keeping that call today. Geos will probably squeak out another 6" storm somehow. SREF plumes have some big dogs for us both. You could pull 6" out of this. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 MKE pulling 6" will take a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 MKE pulling 6" will take a miracle Weirder things happen. Somehow they pulled off 9-10" from the last storm. I wouldn't bet on 6", but 4" seems like a fair bet. SREF plumes have been rising up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Same here. With the trend this winter, I would side with the stronger solutions - not the GFS. Agreed. I honestly think we can pull off 5-6" from this storm as long as an eastern shift doesn't occur. Each snow event this year (two of them) has over-preformed IMO, hopefully the trend will continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 5-6" seems pretty unlikely for northern Cook. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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